Pacific Ocean Challenge – USA Gov Policy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its presentation of the U.S. Department of Defenses’ report on threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

BURDEN SHARING

America’s National Security Strategy calls on the United States to pursue cooperation and reciprocity together with our allies, partners, and aspiring partners. Cooperation means sharing responsibilities and burdens. The United States expects our allies and partners to shoulder a fair share of the burden of responsibility to protect against common threats. When we pool resources and share responsibility for our common defense, our security burden becomes lighter and more cost-effective.

THE STATE PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

The State Partnership Program began in 1993 with partnerships between the National Guard of designated U.S. States and newly independent Eastern European countries.

The State Partnership Program has since expanded to other regions, including the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Western Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. By the end of FY 2019, the United States will have 79 partnerships with 86 nations, 12 of which are in the Indo-Pacific:

Bangladesh / Oregon (2008)
Cambodia / Idaho (2009)
Indonesia / Hawaii (2006)
Malaysia / Washington (2017)
Mongolia / Alaska (2003)
Philippines / Hawaii, Guam (2000)
Thailand / Washington (2002)
Tonga and Fiji / Nevada (2014 & 2018)
Vietnam / Oregon (2012)
Recently Added: Nepal (2019) 4Sri Lanka

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UPHOLDING FREEDOM AND ACCESS TO GLOBAL COMMONS

Throughout our history, the United States has asserted a key national interest in preserving the freedom of the seas, and has often relied on the U.S. military forces to protect that interest. As President Ronald Reagan said in releasing the U.S. Oceans Policy in 1983, “we will not acquiesce in unilateral actions of other states designed to restrict the rights and freedoms of the international community in navigation and overflight.”

Today, in places like the South China Sea, excessive maritime claims are attempts by coastal States to unlawfully restrict the exercise of freedoms afforded to all seafaring nations to operate in waters beyond territorial limits. The United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, and encourage our allies and partners to do the same.

Excessive maritime claims inconsistent with international law, if left unchallenged, threaten the international rulesbased order and U.S. interests and those of our regional allies and partners. Freedom of the seas is essential to ensuring the global mobility of U.S. forces in the event of a crisis and the worldwide security of civilian shipping on a daily basis.

DoD, therefore, is committed to ensuring free and open maritime access, including through freedom of navigation (FON) assertions (commonly called Freedom of Navigation Operations, or FONOPs), to protect the stable economic order and to maintain the ability of U.S. forces to respond, as needed. U.S. forces routinely challenge excessive maritime claims asserted by allies and partners, as well as those made by potential adversaries and competitors.

Conclusion

For more than 70 years the United States, along with our like-minded allies and partners, has helped underwrite a stable security environment that allowed the people, economies, and nations in the Indo-Pacific to rise and prosper. Our vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific encompasses values shared by our allies and partners in the region – one that emphasizes upholding a foundation of mutual respect, responsibility, transparency, and accountability.

As great power competition returns, we will continue to invest, act, and orient ourselves to ensure that the principled international order from which all countries in the region benefit endures.

The United States will uphold our commitments and will act to defend our interests and those of our allies and partners.

The United States, along with our like-minded allies and partners, will continue to be engaged in this dynamic and rapidly growing region. The Department of Defense, in conjunction with other U.S. Government Departments and Agencies, regional institutions, and regional allies and partners, will continue to ensure that the rule of law – not coercion and force – dictates the future of the IndoPacific.

Photo taken on May 4, 2019 shows Chinese naval forces participating the “Joint Sea-2019” exercise. A six-day joint naval exercise held by Chinese and Russian navies .in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong Province. Two submarines, 13 surface ships, as well as fixed-wing airplanes, helicopters and marines participated in the exercise. (Xinhua/Li Ziheng)

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government moves on to Part 4 of its examination of the growing crisis in the Indo-Pacific region, examining the Department of Defense’s latest information on the subject.

Russia as a Revitalized Malign Actor

Russia’s interest and influence in the region continue to increase through national outreach and military modernization – in both its conventional forces and strategic forces. Despite slow economic growth due to Western sanctions and decreasing oil prices, Russia continues to modernize its military and prioritize strategic capabilities – including its nuclear forces, A2/AD systems, and expanded training for long-range aviation – in an attempt to re-establish its presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Russia’s operations and engagement throughout this region are consistent with its global influence activities, which seek to advance Moscow’s strategic interests while undermining U.S. leadership and the rules-based international order. Russia’s efforts include using economic, diplomatic, and military means to achieve influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Moscow seeks to alleviate some of the effects of sanctions imposed, following its aggressive actions in Ukraine, by diplomatically appealing to select states in Asia and seeking economic opportunities for energy exports. Russia also seeks to increase defense and trade relations through arms sales in the region.

Russia is re-establishing its military presence in the Indo-Pacific by regularly flying bomber and reconnaissance missions in the Sea of Japan and conducting operations as far east as Alaska and the west coast of the continental United States. Russia has also intensified its diplomatic outreach in Southeast Asia, seeking to capitalize on U.S.-China tensions in order to present itself as a neutral “third partner.”

The Russian Navy has increased its operations and reach, with the Russian Pacific Fleet deploying ships to support operations in the Middle East and Europe, and the Russian Baltic and Black Sea Fleets deploying to the Indo-Pacific. Russian ballistic missile and attack submarines remain active in the region, while Russia is also undertaking efforts to modernize its conventional forces and nuclear strike capabilities.

China and Russia collaborate across the diplomatic, economic, and security arenas. China has increased investment in Russia’s economy and Russia is one of China’s top sources for energy imports. In the security realm, China purchases advanced equipment such as Su-35 fighter aircraft and the S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia. The two countries participate in bilateral and multilateral military exercises together, including China’s 2018 participation for the first time in Russia’s annual strategic command and staff exercise, VOSTOK (East) 2018. China and Russia frequently jointly oppose U.S.-sponsored measures at the United Nations Security Council. Broadly, they share a preference for a multipolar world order in which the United States is weaker and less influential. Russia has Arctic interests linked to its significant Arctic Ocean coastline and the extraction of natural resources. This is witnessed by Russia’s extended continental shelf claim, and an uptick in its military posture and investments to develop the region and the Northern Sea shipping route, including with Chinese involvement. However, an interest in reserving Arctic resources for littoral states may ultimately limit the extent and depth of Sino-Russian cooperation.

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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as a Rogue State

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) will remain a security challenge for DoD, the global system, our allies and partners, and competitors, until we achieve the final, fully verifiable denuclearization as committed to by Chairman Kim Jong Un. Although a pathway to peace is open for a diplomatic resolution of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, other weapons of mass destruction, missile threats, and the security challenges North Korea presents are real and demand continued vigilance. North Korea’s history as a serial proliferator, including conventional arms, nuclear technology, ballistic missiles, and chemical agents to countries, such as Iran and Syria, adds to our security concerns. Furthermore, the DPRK’s continued human rights violations and abuse against its own people, including violations of individuals’ freedom of expression, remain an issue of deep concern to the international community. The United States also continues to support Japan’s position that North Korea must completely resolve the issue of Japanese abductees, and has raised this with North Korean authorities.

North Korea has developed an intercontinental ballistic missile intended to be capable of striking the continental United States with a nuclear or conventional payload. In 2017, North Korea conducted a series of increasingly complex ballistic missile launches eastward toward the United States. North Korea did so by overflying Japan with long-range ballistic missiles. Some tests were done at highly lofted trajectories designed to simulate flights at ranges that could reach the United States.

North Korea poses a conventional threat to U.S. allies, such as the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan. North Korea has long-range artillery arrayed against the ROK – particularly the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area – capable of inflicting catastrophic damage on ROK civilians and large numbers of U.S. citizens. North Korea has demonstrated willingness to use lethal force to achieve its ends. In 2010, North Korea sank the ROK corvette CHEONAN and killed 46 sailors in an unprovoked attack. In 2010, it also shelled the ROK Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, killing 2 civilians and 2 military personnel and wounding 22 more.

North Korea continues to circumvent international sanctions and the U.S.-led pressure campaign through diplomatic engagement, counter pressure against the sanctions regime, and direct sanctions evasion. Early in 2018, North Korea exceeded its sanctioned limit on refined petroleum imports through illicit ship-to-ship transfers. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) is working with allies and partners to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) by disrupting illicit ship-to-ship transfers, often near or in Chinese territorial waters, and in the Yellow Sea. North Korea is also engaged in cross-border smuggling operations and cyber-enabled theft to generate revenue, while simultaneously circumventing United Nations Security Council prohibitions on coal exports.

The Trump Administration has pursued leader-level diplomacy with North Korea for the first time, which has highlighted unique opportunities for a brighter future for North Korea. Until North Korea clearly and unambiguously makes the strategic decision to take steps to denuclearize, the United States will continue to enforce all applicable domestic and international sanctions, and DoD will remain ready to deter, and if necessary, defeat any threats to the United States, the ROK, Japan, or our other allies and partners.

The Report concludes tomorrow.

Photo taken on May 4, 2019 shows the naval forces participating the “Joint Sea-2019” exercise. A six-day joint naval exercise held by Chinese and Russian navies concluded Saturday in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong Province. Two submarines, 13 surface ships, as well as fixed-wing airplanes, helicopters and marines participated in the exercise. (Xinhua/Li Ziheng)

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay