The New York Analysis of Policy and Government moves on to Part 4 of its examination of the growing crisis in the Indo-Pacific region, examining the Department of Defense’s latest information on the subject.
Russia as a Revitalized Malign Actor
Russia’s interest and influence in the region continue to increase through national outreach and military modernization – in both its conventional forces and strategic forces. Despite slow economic growth due to Western sanctions and decreasing oil prices, Russia continues to modernize its military and prioritize strategic capabilities – including its nuclear forces, A2/AD systems, and expanded training for long-range aviation – in an attempt to re-establish its presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Russia’s operations and engagement throughout this region are consistent with its global influence activities, which seek to advance Moscow’s strategic interests while undermining U.S. leadership and the rules-based international order. Russia’s efforts include using economic, diplomatic, and military means to achieve influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Moscow seeks to alleviate some of the effects of sanctions imposed, following its aggressive actions in Ukraine, by diplomatically appealing to select states in Asia and seeking economic opportunities for energy exports. Russia also seeks to increase defense and trade relations through arms sales in the region.
Russia is re-establishing its military presence in the Indo-Pacific by regularly flying bomber and reconnaissance missions in the Sea of Japan and conducting operations as far east as Alaska and the west coast of the continental United States. Russia has also intensified its diplomatic outreach in Southeast Asia, seeking to capitalize on U.S.-China tensions in order to present itself as a neutral “third partner.”
The Russian Navy has increased its operations and reach, with the Russian Pacific Fleet deploying ships to support operations in the Middle East and Europe, and the Russian Baltic and Black Sea Fleets deploying to the Indo-Pacific. Russian ballistic missile and attack submarines remain active in the region, while Russia is also undertaking efforts to modernize its conventional forces and nuclear strike capabilities.
China and Russia collaborate across the diplomatic, economic, and security arenas. China has increased investment in Russia’s economy and Russia is one of China’s top sources for energy imports. In the security realm, China purchases advanced equipment such as Su-35 fighter aircraft and the S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia. The two countries participate in bilateral and multilateral military exercises together, including China’s 2018 participation for the first time in Russia’s annual strategic command and staff exercise, VOSTOK (East) 2018. China and Russia frequently jointly oppose U.S.-sponsored measures at the United Nations Security Council. Broadly, they share a preference for a multipolar world order in which the United States is weaker and less influential. Russia has Arctic interests linked to its significant Arctic Ocean coastline and the extraction of natural resources. This is witnessed by Russia’s extended continental shelf claim, and an uptick in its military posture and investments to develop the region and the Northern Sea shipping route, including with Chinese involvement. However, an interest in reserving Arctic resources for littoral states may ultimately limit the extent and depth of Sino-Russian cooperation.
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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) will remain a security challenge for DoD, the global system, our allies and partners, and competitors, until we achieve the final, fully verifiable denuclearization as committed to by Chairman Kim Jong Un. Although a pathway to peace is open for a diplomatic resolution of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, other weapons of mass destruction, missile threats, and the security challenges North Korea presents are real and demand continued vigilance. North Korea’s history as a serial proliferator, including conventional arms, nuclear technology, ballistic missiles, and chemical agents to countries, such as Iran and Syria, adds to our security concerns. Furthermore, the DPRK’s continued human rights violations and abuse against its own people, including violations of individuals’ freedom of expression, remain an issue of deep concern to the international community. The United States also continues to support Japan’s position that North Korea must completely resolve the issue of Japanese abductees, and has raised this with North Korean authorities.
North Korea has developed an intercontinental ballistic missile intended to be capable of striking the continental United States with a nuclear or conventional payload. In 2017, North Korea conducted a series of increasingly complex ballistic missile launches eastward toward the United States. North Korea did so by overflying Japan with long-range ballistic missiles. Some tests were done at highly lofted trajectories designed to simulate flights at ranges that could reach the United States.
North Korea poses a conventional threat to U.S. allies, such as the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan. North Korea has long-range artillery arrayed against the ROK – particularly the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area – capable of inflicting catastrophic damage on ROK civilians and large numbers of U.S. citizens. North Korea has demonstrated willingness to use lethal force to achieve its ends. In 2010, North Korea sank the ROK corvette CHEONAN and killed 46 sailors in an unprovoked attack. In 2010, it also shelled the ROK Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, killing 2 civilians and 2 military personnel and wounding 22 more.
North Korea continues to circumvent international sanctions and the U.S.-led pressure campaign through diplomatic engagement, counter pressure against the sanctions regime, and direct sanctions evasion. Early in 2018, North Korea exceeded its sanctioned limit on refined petroleum imports through illicit ship-to-ship transfers. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) is working with allies and partners to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) by disrupting illicit ship-to-ship transfers, often near or in Chinese territorial waters, and in the Yellow Sea. North Korea is also engaged in cross-border smuggling operations and cyber-enabled theft to generate revenue, while simultaneously circumventing United Nations Security Council prohibitions on coal exports.
The Trump Administration has pursued leader-level diplomacy with North Korea for the first time, which has highlighted unique opportunities for a brighter future for North Korea. Until North Korea clearly and unambiguously makes the strategic decision to take steps to denuclearize, the United States will continue to enforce all applicable domestic and international sanctions, and DoD will remain ready to deter, and if necessary, defeat any threats to the United States, the ROK, Japan, or our other allies and partners.
The Report concludes tomorrow.
Photo taken on May 4, 2019 shows the naval forces participating the “Joint Sea-2019” exercise. A six-day joint naval exercise held by Chinese and Russian navies concluded Saturday in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong Province. Two submarines, 13 surface ships, as well as fixed-wing airplanes, helicopters and marines participated in the exercise. (Xinhua/Li Ziheng)