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U.S. Faces Challenging International Situation

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in consideration of his nomination to become vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Christopher Grady emphasized the challenges facing the United States and its allies. 

Adm. Grady said that competition in today’s extraordinarily complex and dynamic environment means that the United States and its allies face mounting challenges to the international rules-based order and national security in every domain, from the seabed to space to cyberspace, to the air and land domains. 

Strategic competition, he said, does not just involve conventional or nuclear threats, but also attacks below the threshold of armed conflict that have changed the character of that competition. 

“And so now more than ever, global integration is essential. And integrated deterrence in those multi-domains, leveraging all elements of national power across the whole of government and with our allies and partners is absolutely critical,” he said.

Grady noted four strengths of the Defense Department, which give it a competitive advantage:

America’s unrivaled industrial base, resulting from an innovative and open society; 
Many allies and partners with whom all are stronger together;
Service members who are always resolute, lethal and ready at a moment’s notice;
Families who support the force.
“I firmly believe that family readiness directly contributes to operational readiness. I’ve always said a stronger family means a stronger fleet and after 37 years of service, I can confidently say that it is because of our families and their service and their sacrifice that we continue to be the most powerful military the world has ever known,” he said.

The admiral answered questions that focused on several different topics, one of which was about the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, which is chaired by the vice chairman which reviews and validates all warfighting capabilities needed to win on the battlefield.

The JROC is one of the most important organizations in the Pentagon, he said.
Decisions that are made at the JROC are threat- and risk-based, informed by disciplined and analytical data, he said, noting that he will continue that rigorous process if confirmed.

The admiral told lawmakers that the department must be postured to address challenges from China and Russia, particularly with their growing nuclear arsenals and modernization efforts.

“We need to have that responsive, flexible and survivable triad if we’re going to meet the challenges to nuclear peer competitors,” he said.

Pentagon cites Taiwan as an alternative to oppressive China

In stark contrast to deepening authoritarianism and oppression in the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan has proven the possibilities of an alternative path to the Chinese Communist Party, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, told a Senate panel recently.

Ely Ratner testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the future of U.S. policy in Taiwan. 

“Unfortunately, although the PRC publicly advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, leaders in Beijing have never renounced the use of military aggression,” he told Senate members. “In fact, the is likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay or deny third-party intervention on Taiwan’s behalf.”

The PRC threat to Taiwan, however, is not limited to invasion or blockade, he noted, adding the PLA is conducting a broader coercive campaign in the air and maritime domains around Taiwan. “These operations are destabilizing, intentionally provocative, and increase the likelihood of miscalculation,” Ratner said.

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Nevertheless, he added, although the PLA’s actions are real and dangerous, and PLA modernization is unlikely to abate, the PRC can still be deterred through a combination of Taiwan’s own defenses, its partnership with the United States and growing support from like-minded democracies. 

Through smart investments and key reforms, Taiwan can send a clear signal that its society and armed forces are committed and prepared to defend Taiwan, Ratner said, adding, “Without question, bolstering Taiwan self-defenses is an urgent task and an essential feature of deterrence.”

Tsai Ing-wen, the president of the Republic of China, has prioritized the development of asymmetric capabilities for Taiwan’s self-defense that are credible, resilient, mobile, distributed and cost-effective, he noted. “Asymmetric capabilities, however, are only one part of the deterrence equation. Taiwan must complement investments in these critical capabilities with equal focus on enhancing resilience, supporting civil-military integration and building a strategy that includes defense in depth.”

In addition to the provision of defense, arms and services to Taiwan, the Defense Department remains committed to maintaining the capacity of the United States to resist the resort to force or other forms of coercion that might jeopardize the security of the people on Taiwan, he said, noting, “and let me be clear that this is an absolute priority.”

The PRC is DOD’s pacing challenge and a Taiwan contingency is the pacing scenario, Ratner said. “We are modernizing our capabilities, updating U.S. force posture and developing new operational concepts accordingly. department’s efforts to deter PRC aggression and enhance Taiwan’s defenses will not be in isolation. Countries throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond recognize the PRC aggression against Taiwan would have serious consequences for their own interests in our increasingly voicing concerns about PRC coercion and potential aggression against Taiwan.

“As evidenced by a number of recent multilateral operations and exercises, the department is focused on enhancing our regional cooperation as a means of bolstering deterrence,” he said.

Photo: Admiral Grady (DoD photo)

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Showdown in Donbas

Winter is approaching in the Far North but the situation in the Donbas is a long way from frozen. Political posturing by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was blatant last week when he publicized confidential diplomatic messages recently exchanged between himself and his German and French counterparts concerning politics in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Russian-occupied Ukraine. This was the second set of leaked messages this year. Lavrov did so without any of his counterparts’ consent. “Russian diplomacy is testing its rogue-state practices on its Western diplomatic counterparts, and finds them malleable”, according to a recent analysis by Vladimir Socor, of the Jamestown Foundation. Representatives from Ukraine, France, and Germany are pushing for a Normandy-style framework to relaunch negotiations with Russia over the 2014-15 Minsk Agreements that sought an end to the Crimean war. 

The Minsk Protocol itself was written by members of the Trilateral Contact Group. It has three official members and includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Established about five years ago, it specifically was designed to settle the dispute over the Donbas area of Ukraine. Lavrov, however, has demanded a vast number of conditions be met before Russia is willing to agree to begin any discussion concerning changes to its strict interpretation of the document.

“President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for this action by taking the unusual step of attending the ministry’s senior officials’ meeting (Kollegium) the following day and reinforcing Lavrov’s arguments,” according to Socor. After the agreement between the Donetsk-Luhansk regions and Kiev was signed last year on July 22, 2020, Ukraine backed out as it decided the Protocol established de facto” equality between the Ukrainian military and Russia’s proxy forces. The protocol, says Socor, effectively legitimized the status of the Russian-backed Donetsk-Luhansk forces. If a new consensus to meet can be coordinated, the discussions are expected to center around political and security conditions for holding local elections in the region. 

Lavrov, however, is demanding a preset agenda, and predetermined outcome, before any meeting can take place. In the conveniently timed leak last week he refers to the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) February 17, 2015, resolution which he points out was by “unanimous vote.” Lavrov argues that the UNSC decision means that Ukraine cannot make any revisions to the agreement. Socor notes that President Obama helped push for a fast and unanimous vote on the original resolution. Lavrov now is suggesting the Biden Administration needs to continue to assist Russia in supporting the UNSC’s position although it is not formally part of the group. 

In the leaked messages, Lavrov’s German counterpart Heiko Maas, and the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, appear willing to meet Russia half-way but refused to support the idea that the conflict is an internal Russian issue. Socor points out that they also disagreed with “Moscow’s proposal to jointly endorse direct negotiations between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk in the Contact Group.” LE Drian and Maas view their version of the proposal as the one most likely to overcome a deadlock and resolve differences. Russia, in typical fashion, is demanding a total win. 

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So far, the relaunch of Minsk talks has failed, according to Michael Kimmage and Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That increases the likelihood of a major security risk going forward and possible renewed conflict in the region next year. The Minsk agreements that were to end the dispute six years ago have not resulted in a return to normalcy. Russian troops remain on the ground and there are numerous incidents of small outbreaks of fighting between the two sides. One of the points making this environment so dangerous is that the failed agreements falsely make it appear that Russia and the West have a serious diplomatic relationship. It is not, however, war by other means across a diplomatic negotiating table as the factions involved are not seeking compromise. 

First, the two western nations involved in the proposed talks are not directly connected to the issue. There is no trust on either side and the Lavrov leaks of this past week appear to be pushing the parties further apart. Finally, the failed talks have implications that will contribute to a global redistribution of power. Kimmage and Lete write that “The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not some provincial dispute at the periphery of Europe. They have proven instrumental to a global realignment since 2014, felt from Syria to China to Venezuela.” Lete argues that if Ukraine pulls out now Russia will point to Kiev and say it was not interested in peace. The Donbas is the single largest point of contention between Russia and the West. It deserves and demands transatlantic attention from Washington before the situation escalates.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Photo: Pixabay

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Enviro-Extremists Worsen Planet

The Earth faces real environmental issues.  Unfortunately, the unscientific responses to that challenge will make the problem worse, not better, and ignore the very real needs of the planet and the people.

The pain felt at the gas pumps since the Biden Administration moved to end American energy independence will be deepened by rising costs for home heating this winter. It’s a harsh expense that isn’t even necessary, and the issue will grow even more difficult as illusory “solutions” based more on politics than practicality take hold.

Facts can be inconvenient things for the extremists who seek to use climate fear-mongering to push a socialist agenda under the guise of addressing climate change.  Gregory Wrightstone, a geologist and expert on the environment, notes that the allegation that the planet is facing unprecedented warming is utterly false. The globe was warmer at many points in humanity’s past. Those periods resulted in greater prosperity, not disaster. The notion than increased carbon dioxide is similarly a disaster to be averted at all costs also doesn’t stand up to scientific scrutiny.

An objective view of scientific data concerning alterations in the global climate would indicate that concerns over man-made planetary warming don’t have a solid foundation in objective facts. In a survey  of 1800 scientists, only 43% agreed with the UN’s ‘95%’ certainty’ about global warming.Dr. Steve Koonin, who served as undersecretary for science in the Energy Department during President Barack Obama’s first term, noted the lack of scientific agreement in a Wall Street Journal article: “The idea that ‘Climate science is settled’ runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.”

The hysteria over carbon dioxide is absurd.  NASA notes that “A quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide…Green leaves use energy from sunlight through photosynthesis to chemically combine carbon dioxide drawn in from the air with water and nutrients tapped from the ground to produce sugars, which are the main source of food, fiber and fuel for life on Earth. Studies have shown that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide increase photosynthesis, spurring plant growth.”

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Deforestation and the loss of wildlife habitat, in contrast, are real and serious issues. The drive to replace fossil fuels and nuclear power with solar and wind energy will make that problem worse, render energy too expensive for most, and will ultimately prove illusory since there is no reasonable way that they can produce the energy needed. A total reliance on solar and wind would require that up to 20% of the entire U.S. landmass would have to be covered in solar panels and wildlife-killing wind turbines, an environmental disaster in and of itself.  Since solar panels and wind turbines have relatively short lifespans, the problem of disposing those used and non-biodegradable devices will result in a further crisis.

The concept of rapidly eliminating or sharply reducing the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in favor of solar panels and wind turbines ignores the need for affordable power. It also ignores the prospect of technological breakthroughs which will occur within the current century, long before the hyped-up timeline laid out by climate Cassandras.  Fusion power, microwaved energy collected above the Earth’s environment, better use of tidal and geothermal sources, and other advances will gradually, practically, affordably, and cleanly replace fossil fuels.

The disregard for the need of the population to have affordable heat, transportation, and energy for commerce is callus, unnecessary, and unscientific, no matter how much hype is provided by those extremists who seek more to “fundamentally transform” the global economy than to keep the air clean.

Photo: Pixabay

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Another Pearl Harbor Looms

This month marks the 80th anniversary of the devastating attack on Pearl Harbor, which brought the United States into World War 2.

Almost precisely the same conditions exist today, with Russia in the role of Nazi Germany and China in the role of imperialist Japan. Unfortunately, those two adversaries are far larger and more capable than their 20th century counterparts. Russia has a larger nuclear force than America possesses, and China now has a numerically superior navy.

Just as Washington had a feeling of relative safety before Pearl Harbor was assaulted, the Biden Administration appears to not give the unprecedented, massive threat now facing the free world sufficient credence, as evidenced by it’s the underfunded defense budget it presented to Congress.

This is not 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed and China was relatively weak. Putin has constructed a powerful military that is far better organized and equipped even than its Soviet predecessor. Thanks to a treaty agreed to by the hapless Obama Administration, it now has the lead in nuclear armaments, and the Kremlin has made it known that it will have no hesitancy to use battlefield atomic weapons even as it has developed unique strategic missiles that could destroy an area the size of England in a single launch.

In the 1990’s, President Bill Clinton allowed the sale of Cray supercomputers to Beijing.  This, along with an unprecedented espionage effort, allowed China to catch up to and even overtake the United States and its allies in sophisticated weaponry.  That same President Clinton allowed China to join the World Trade Organization, which allowed it to develop relatively unfettered access to U.S. markets and gain the capital it needed to build its powerful military machine.

China has advantages Imperialist Japan could only dream about.  It has facilities on both sides of the Panama Canal, which could be used to cripple America’s ability to move naval forces as needed. It has taken possession of air base on the island of Kiribati, a dangerous location in the Pacific Ocean. It is planning to place military facilities on the Atlantic Coast of Africa.

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Russia has a significant naval base in the Middle East in the city of Tartus in Syria, which could be used to disrupt the world’s oil supply.  This would be extremely dangerous in and of itself, but when paired with President Biden’s inexplicable assault on American energy independence, it presents an existential threat.

Unlike the aftermath of the attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States would not have the ability to construct the weapons it needs in adequate numbers.  America’s industrial base has deteriorated sharply. That manufacturing advantage now rests with China, and it is unlikely they will sell us the weapons we need to defend ourselves against them!

It is astounding how tone-deaf some U.S. leaders have been to this threat.  Only one plant in the entire nation can currently  manufacture tanks. It is in Lima, Ohio.  Incredibly, President Obama attempted to shut it down. America now no longer can produce the number of ships it would need in a major war, as it did in 1941. 

Some refute this dangerous reality by claiming that Washington has high tech advantages.  That is not correct. As seen in recent years, American satellites, a linchpin of advanced weapons systems, can be readily destroyed in the opening salvo of a war by both Russia and China, each of which have the proven and tested capability to do so. Some components of American weapons system have computer chips that may have been manufactured in China and could have “back door” dangers.

The media, and most Democrat politicians, refuses to examine America’s peril. The tragedy of Pearl Harbor will be repeated if this is not immediately addressed.

Photo:  The battleships West Virginia and Tennessee burning after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, on December 7, 1941

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NATO Meets to Discuss Challenges

The global hope that Moscow would rejoin the family of nations following the collapse of the Soviet Union never materialized. 

Putin possesses the worlds’ most powerful nuclear arsenal thanks to an Obama-era treaty. It has fully returned to the threatening practices of the former USSR, bolstered by rising energy prices, (thanks in significant part to the Biden Administration’s anti-fossil fuel policies) the commodity the Kremlin depends on for its finances, and it is emboldened by its growing economic and military alliance with China.

While the Biden Administration and much of the American media downplay the rising danger, other nations are deeply concerned. Russia has committed the first European land grab since the end of the Second World War with its assault on Ukraine and takeover of Crimea. It seeks to subvert the governments of Eastern Europe. It has militarized the Arctic. It’s naval base in Tartus, Syria, renders it a major player in the Middle East. It has fielded dramatically more powerful strategic atomic weaponry, and openly proclaims that it considers battlefield nuclear weapons a viable option.

Donald Trump, during his tenure in office, initiated a reinvigoration of NATO by highlighting the lack of economic resources some member nations, particularly Germany, were devoting to defense, in defiance of their commitments to the alliance.

In October, defense ministers of NATO nations held significant meetings at the organization’s headquarters in Brussles, Belgium, to address Moscow’s looming threat and other issues, including the fallout from Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. They approved a plan that will make the alliance more responsive to the complex and changing security environment.

After several years of prodding by the former Trump Administration, the allies are finally spending more on defense and have agreed to increase the readiness of their armed forces. The plan includes significant improvements to alliance air and missile defenses. It also calls for strengthening conventional capabilities with fifth-generation jets, adapting exercises and intelligence, and improving the readiness and effectiveness of the nuclear deterrent.

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NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg discussed key issues at the opening of the meeting. “We addressed our deterrence and defence posture. NATO is already making a major adaptation of our Alliance, and we are undertaking a major adaptation to a more complex and competitive world. We have increased the readiness of our forces. And all Allies are investing more in defence. Today, ministers endorsed a new overarching plan to defend our Alliance in crisis and conflict. To make sure that we continue to have the right forces at the right place, at the right time. To protect our one billion people from any threat. Ministers also agreed to the NATO capability targets.”

Stoltenberg discussed the need to respond to “to the growing threat from Russia’s missile systems,” but noted that NATO would “not mirror Russia’s destabilizing behavior.” The Secretary-General also promised that the alliance had “no intention to deploy new land based nuclear missiles in Europe.”

Specific actions agreed to by the defense ministers include significant improvements to NATO’s air and missile defenses, strengthening conventional capabilities with fifth generation jets, adapting exercises and intelligence, and improving the readiness and effectiveness of the alliances’ nuclear deterrent.

A bright spot for the organization is the growing cooperation with Sweden and Finland. Cooperation with two northern nations is particularly vital to counter Moscow’s advanced militarization of the Arctic regio. Although neither nation is officially a member of the 30-nation alliance, the two governments work closely with it. According to Stoltenberg, “NATO, Finland and Sweden share the same security interests. Six NATO Allies, along with Finland and Sweden, border the Baltic Sea… Over the years, we have been working more and more closely together. And we have seen the security situation in the region deteriorate. With Russia’s aggressive posturing and its military build-up. This makes our cooperation even more important… Together, our forces are having a positive impact on the security and stability in the Baltic region. This includes NATO’s enhanced forward presence, Air Policing, and the work of the Swedish and Finnish armed forces.”

Photo: NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels (NATO photo)

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U.S. State Department Confirms NATO Commitment

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken attended the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Foreign Ministerial in Riga, Latvia, November 30-December 1, 2021.  During this visit, Secretary Blinken met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Allied Foreign Ministers.  Secretary Blinken emphasized the strength of the transatlantic relationship, NATO’s ongoing success in safeguarding the transatlantic community, and the Administration’s commitment to the Alliance and our Allies.

Confronting Security Challenges Together

  • The transatlantic relationship is built on a foundation of shared values, and NATO has been the cornerstone of an unprecedented period of peace and prosperity for more than 70 years.
  • NATO is the essential forum for transatlantic security – the only place where the United States meets daily with our Allies to address shared security challenges together. The U.S. commitment to NATO Allies and Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is ironclad, and Allies are united in their shared mission to defend the Euro-Atlantic community, deter aggression, and project stability.
  • As it approaches its 73rd year, NATO is the most powerful and successful Alliance in history. Today, NATO provides security for approximately one billion people in Europe and North America.
  • The United States stands shoulder to shoulder with our Allies and NATO partners in NATO missions in Europe, the Mediterranean, and Iraq. Together, the Alliance is deterring and defending against a wide range of security challenges facing the region, including escalating Russian aggression, terrorism, hybrid and cyber threats, emerging and disruptive technologies, and the way the climate crisis is affecting the threat landscape.  NATO is also working to address the risks the People’s Republic of China presents to our shared security interests, our democracies, and to the rules-based international order.
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Adapting to the Future:  Addressing Current and Emerging Challenges

  • The  United States is joining with our Allies to ensure NATO is fit for purpose in an era of increased strategic competition. In Riga, Foreign Ministers will discuss the development of NATO’s next Strategic Concept, which will guide the Alliance as it addresses current and emerging challenges.  The new Strategic Concept will be prepared for adoption at the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain, June 29-30, 2022.
  • At the Brussels Summit, NATO leaders endorsed the Comprehensive Cyber Defense Policy to support the Alliance’s overall deterrence and defense posture. Putting that policy into practice, Allies are developing a Cyber Action Plan to ensure NATO’s resilience against increasingly frequent and complex malicious cyber activity perpetrated by state and non-state actors, including disruptive ransomware attacks against critical infrastructure.
  • Recognizing the increasingly complex threats to our security, Allied leaders affirmed in December 2019 and in June 2021 that national and collective resilience are essential for credible deterrence and defense, and vital to safeguard our societies, citizens, and shared values. Allied leaders issued a Strengthened Resilience Commitment that outlined future priorities, including on the security of supply chains, critical infrastructure, and energy networks, as well as preparedness for pandemics and natural disasters.  Allies have subsequently updated NATO’s seven baseline requirements to support the effective enablement of armed forces and the Alliance’s three core tasks of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security.
  • At the Brussels Summit, Allies endorsed a Climate Change and Security Action Plan positioning NATO as a leading international organization for understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security. NATO recognizes climate change as a defining challenge of our times and a threat multiplier impacting Allied security.  NATO is incorporating climate change considerations into its full spectrum of work, ranging from defense planning and capability development to civil preparedness and exercises.
  • To maintain the Alliance’s technological edge, Allies are negotiating the provisional Charter of the Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, an initiative that will facilitate technological cooperation and speed the adoption of technological solutions to enhance the Alliance’s defense and security.
  • In the 2019 Leaders’ Statement and the 2021 Brussels Communique, NATO Allies recognized the PRC’s growing influence and international policies can present challenges we need to address together as an Alliance. Beijing is building up its military and expanding its footprint in cyberspace, the Arctic, and in areas that directly affect Transatlantic security, including the Middle East and Africa.
  • The progress Allies have made on defense spending helps ensure NATO is ready and has the capabilities required to meet any challenge. European Allies and Canada have increased their defense spending by more than $260 billion since 2014. These increases are significant, but Allies must also continue to make investments to meet their NATO Capability Targets, to increase the readiness of their armed forces, especially the NATO Readiness Initiative, and to meet force generation commitments for NATO missions and operations.

Reflecting on Afghanistan and Counter Terrorism 

  • In Riga, Allies will discuss NATO’s operations in Afghanistan, reflecting on lessons learned to strengthen our unity and willingness to commit effectively to necessary operations and to inform the Alliance’s future political-military engagements, including in the global fight against terrorism.
  • The United States will never forget that our NATO Allies stood by us following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, invoking Article 5 for the first and only time in the history of the Alliance. The United States honors and remembers the sacrifice Allies and partners made standing shoulder to shoulder in Afghanistan.  For two decades, Afghanistan was prevented from serving as a safe haven for terrorist attacks, and the United States, Allies, and partners provided a safe space for the country to develop, notably with dramatic advancements for women and girls.
  • NATO remains fully committed to the international community’s fight against terrorism, including through analysis, preparedness and responsiveness, capabilities, capacity building and partnerships, and operations. Allies and partners continue to support the fight against ISIS and other forms of terrorism.  NATO’s counter-terrorism efforts contribute directly to the Alliance’s three core tasks:  collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security.

NATO’s Open Door

  • NATO leaders are committed to NATO’s Open Door Policy, which provides a path to membership for any European country that shares our values and meets the necessary responsibilities and obligations. At the NATO Summit in June, we reaffirmed our unity on this.
  • It is imperative NATO continue to ensure the credibility of Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • The United States continues to support NATO’s decision in the 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration, reaffirmed ever since, including in the June 2021 Brussels Summit, that Georgia and Ukraine will become NATO members. These countries’ Annual National Programs (ANP) detail their path to membership.
  • Already, both Georgia and Ukraine are members of the Enhanced Opportunities Partnership (EOP), which elevates their interoperability and training opportunities alongside NATO Allies.
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China’s Excessive Influence

Forty years ago, the phrase “China Club” was common jargon bantered about by officials at the State Department in Washington. Many believed that senior Foreign Service Officers assigned to work on China policy had “constituentitis.” Theywere more concerned with representing Beijing’s position on the issues than the national security interests of the United States, according to some officials who worked with them. What was then a minor concern about being too soft on China has today grown into an obvious threat that stretches well beyond the walls of the main State Department building and into the highest levels of the US Government and American high-tech firms. There are serious questions remaining from last year about connections the Biden family and some Congressional Members have with the Communist Party of China. The security issue was raised again this past week as the Administration’s actions toward Beijing appear different than the rhetoric coming out of Washington. 

It was less than a year ago when US Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA) was found to have close ties to a beautiful Chinese spy named Christine Fang (also known as Fang Fang). After the Chinese influence operation was exposed Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, put Swalwell back on the House Committee on Homeland Security within a month. This week Chris Sanders, writing for Reuters, reported that President Biden suggested in recent meetings with Chinese officials that we “meet China halfway” when it comes to advanced technology transfers. 

The reality is Chinese companies operating in the US are aiding the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in obtaining foreign technology related to nuclear and ballistic missile programs. There should be no “half-way” when it comes to the national security interests of this nation. This week alone “eight Chinese firms were “listed [by the US Commerce Department] to prevent US technology being used to help China develop quantum computing applications for its military,” according to Sanders. At first glance it sounds like the US Government is stepping up and protecting Americans from the proliferation of advanced US technology. However, the Commerce Department’s entity list absolutely does not prohibit the firms from obtaining advanced US technology. It only means that the US suppliers to those eight Chinese PLA-linked companies on the entity list now will need to apply for a license before they can sell to them.

In an admission from Washington this week, the Biden Administration admitted quietly that China-based Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at Microscale, Quantum CTek and Shanghai Quantum CTeck Co Ltd were added to the “entity list” by the Commerce Department because they already have been “acquiring and attempting to acquire US-origin items in support of military applications” for the PLA. The Biden Administration has not explained why it did not impose a total ban on the sale of advanced US technology with military applications to these companies. Part of the equipment the PLA was trying to obtain dealt with the development of counter-stealth technology and unbreakable encryption. Sanders says the Commerce Department wants to stop the Chinese military from developing its technology, which “could include equipment like advanced radars, and counter-submarine applications such as undersea sensors.”  

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This occurs at a time when China has announced a number of advances in military technology that surpass those of the United States and its communist partner Russia is starting full-scale production of its new hypersonic missile. According to James Palmer, writing in Foreign Policy, “the Biden administration has been sitting on these and other possible sanctions for a while, but it held off until after COP26 and the summit between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.” What advanced military technology the PLA can’t indigenously develop or buy from Russia it is obtaining from the United States and other Western countries. The more it buys, steals, or reverse engineers, the less safe the American people will be in the near future. The Biden Administration is taking only small, tepid steps toward closing the pipeline.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Illustration: Pixabay

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Russia’s Hypersonic Threat

A Russian hypersonic missile traveling more than five times the speed of sound, capable of maneuvering a change in direction mid-air, and harder to intercept than traditional missiles operated by the United States… a recipe for disaster? It certainly would appear so. Last Thursday Russia announced an additional, successful test of its Zircon hypersonic missile. It comes only weeks after the Chinese successfully flew a similar missile, capable of traversing the South Pole, around the planet before landing it within an acceptable target range. The United States is at greater risk from Russia today, according to military analysts in Washington, as Putin is continuing to develop and test advanced offensive weapons systems capable of threatening our country’s national security.

It isn’t news to the Pentagon that the Russian military has been testing the Zircon missile. Tests have been ongoing for several years. What is newly disconcerting, is that Russian military efforts appear increasingly coordinated with those of China. The latest Russian missile test was launched in its Arctic waters off the Admiral Gorshkov, a naval warship. According to reports in the Russian media this week, it was a direct hit. Previous hypersonic missile tests included submarine launched versions of the Zircon missile. President Putin announced in his 2018 state of the nation speech that the Zircon missile was accurate at a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Today the “Zircon looks set to join Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles that were put into service in 2019 and the air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles in Russia’s arsenal,” according to the publication Space Wars. Once operations it will raise the risk level to American national security.

According to the Hoover Institute’s Kathrin Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo, both Russia and China are working together to gain an edge in next-generation hypersonic technology. What some military analysts in Washington are uncertain of is the level and extent of collaboration between the two communist countries. Russia still sells China advanced missile systems and technologies; however, China is quickly developing its own indigenous programs. Estimates now are that within this decade China will no longer need Russian military technology. 

Indications are that Moscow is deepening its military relationship with Beijing. But all is not as it appears on the surface. Putin, like Russian leaders before him, remains wary of being drawn into a two-front war. Putin works with Xi Jinping and the CCP today but that is no guarantee of a long-term commitment should Beijing decide that Putin is no longer a valuable ally. Military leaders in Washington suggest this may make portend a more dangerous period of Russian aggression along its borderlands in the coming years if Russo-Chinese cooperation breaks down. 

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The military posture of Russian troops along NATO’s eastern front complicates the picture. Unlike earlier periods Russian military technology today is not only a greater threat to Western Europe but to all 50 US states. A Submarine launched Zircon could likely hit every major city in the United States. Analysts acknowledge our military would have a challenging time detecting and stopping such launches. Russia also is well into a major upgrade of its nuclear forces. Adding to this threat are credible intelligence reports that Putin is pursuing a policy of using space for combat operations and deploying strike systems in it to achieve military superiority.

Each time Russia adds advanced weapons to its arsenal, it increases the potential of a mistake, a new border conflict, or potentially a great powers nuclear conflagration. When the Zircon goes into service it will dramatically increase the risk to other nation-states around the world. The US needs leadership in Washington that can not only respond to this increased threat it also needs to fund its response. To date, the annual NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act) has hundreds of amendments with none capable of addressing the Russian challenges presented by Putin’s improved military posture.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Photo: The frigate Admiral Gorshkov successfully fired a hypersonic missile Zircon at a ground target (Russian Defence Ministry photo)

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Quick Analysis

NATO Confronts New Threats

The U.S. media has only lightly covered the growing danger that Russia is posing to both Ukraine and to NATO.

During the Obama Administration, Moscow executed the first major offensive land grab since the end of the Second World War, seizing Crimea away from Ukraine. The Kremlin took a calculated risk that the White House would not seriously respond. The gamble paid off. Putin remained comparatively low-key during the Trump era. With Biden in the White House, the Kremlin again sees an opportunity to engage in conquest against Ukraine and intimidation against other European states with little threat of an American response.

Moscow has sent bombers into NATO airspace, and moved large numbers of troops towards the Ukrainian border. It has also strategically placed key military units in Belarus, which also borders Ukraine. It has dramatically strengthened its missile forces, and retains the world’s strongest nuclear force.

Clearly, NATO members are appropriately worried. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the alliance’s ministers have endorsed a new overarching plan to defend our alliance in crisis and conflict to make sure that we continue to have the right forces at the right place, at the right time to protect our one billion people from any threat.”

NATO outlined a series of responses to Moscow’s growing threat, including making significant improvements to our air and missile defences, strengthening conventional capabilities with fifth generation jets, adapting exercises and intelligence, and improving the readiness and effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent.

 At a recent meeting of NATO’s defense ministers, it was agreed that NATO members would forces which are heavier, and with more high-end capabilities, and technologically advanced forces, and forces that need to fully exploit emerging and disruptive technologies to make sure that we maintain our technological edge.

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Although the USSR-led Warsaw Pact no longer exists, it has been replaced an even deadlier entity in China. Stoltenberg notes: “China is heavily modernizing its military capabilities, including advanced nuclear systems and long range missile systems, and also that we see China coming much closer to us, not least in cyberspace. So that’s what we actually are addressing. So when we then agree to do more together, agree, for instance… a strategy on artificial intelligence, agree to have more technologically advanced weapon systems, agree to do all the other things we have agreed on, on overarching planning also for improving the defence of the Euro-Atlantic area. Of course, all of that is also relevant to the challenges posed by the rise of China.”

The immediate threat to Europe remains the Kremlin’s imminent threat to Ukraine. The German news source DW reports concentrations of up to 100,000 Russian troops on its border with Ukraine, including the type of units that successfully invaded Crimea during the Obama Administration.

Individually, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have expressed deep concern.

In Washington, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) recently joined others on the House Armed Services Committee in writing to President Biden about the massing of Russian forces on the Ukranian border. In the letter, the lawmakers expressed concerns about the situation and called on the President to send Ukraine additional support, including enhanced intelligence and weapons.

“I am increasingly concerned that the Russian buildup along Ukraine’s northern border is more than just a show of strength. The quality of units present, alarming statements from the Russian government, and the leverage that President Biden gifted to Russia by allowing completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline are all reason for concern. But despite these warning signs, the White House has displayed a stunning lack of public leadership. That’s why I joined my colleagues on the House Armed Services Committee in calling on the President to take concrete action to stand with Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression.”

Photo: NATO head meets with Ukrainian official

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Quick Analysis

Underfunding Defense Promotes Danger

Aggressive adversaries with technological capabilities exceeding the Pentagon’s, a declining U.S. defense industrial base, and a Presidential Administration that fails to take national security seriously all point to significant danger in 2022.

As 2021 drew to a close, massive Russian forces were placed on the Ukrainian border, and China made every preparation necessary for an invasion of Taiwan. Both Beijing and Moscow had recently unveiled massive new advanced strategic nuclear weapons that neither the United States nor its allies possessed. The two nations had already tested space weapons designed to destroy American defense satellites, leaving the U.S. deaf, dumb, and blind in the event of an attack. Russian and Chinese forces trained and patrolled together, engaging in incursions near U.S. and NATO airspace and sea lanes.  Putin threatened U.S. forces in the Black Sea.

With all this  clearly evident, the Biden Administration sent a defense budget to Congress that would reduce the Pentagon’s spending power by about 3%, even though America’s armed forces were already overused and exhausted from fighting wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

They also still suffered from Obama-era cuts.

Some in Congress, seeking to divert funds to social programs designed to get Democrats re-elected, sought further cuts, despite the obvious hazards faced. They ignore the warnings from clear-eyed eobservers that the decline in America’s defenses are being intentionally ignored.

In March, fifty House Democrats banded together to urge significant cuts to funding for the armed forces. They advocated diverting hundreds of billions of dollars from the Pentagon to “diplomacy, humanitarian aid, global public health, sustainability initiatives, and basic research…climate change and human rights.”

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There have been attempts by the Biden Administration to even limit discussion of defense needs. U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee, joined Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and four top Republicans in Congress, sent a letter to Biden administration officials expressing grave concern over reports that the National Security Council has blocked the Department of Defense from making recommendations about changes to the United States’ nuclear declaratory policy through the ongoing Nuclear Posture Review.

In a letter sent to Biden’s appointees at the Defense Department, a number of Representatives warned that “It would be unwise and irresponsible to muzzle the considered advice of the U.S. government’s foremost experts on nuclear deterrence issues at the DOD, and throughout the interagency.  It would also deprive the President of your views, the views of NATO allies, and those of our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region.  Further, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is statutorily obligated to provide his best military advice to the Commander-in-Chief on these important issues.”

The issue runs deeper than just the amount of funds available to support an adequate military.  The U.S. defense industrial base has deteriorated. A report from the Ronald Reagan Institute notes:

“The economic and national security threat from China cannot be ignored…The COVID-19 pandemic showed us that we can no longer afford to neglect the resiliency of our supply chains and defer capital investment in national security-critical sectors. … The Task Force identified six major challenges to revitalizing America’s manufacturing competitiveness. These include a significant skills gap, unsatisfactory productivity gains, inadequate investment in infrastructure, a fragile supplier ecosystem, insufficient coordination among government actors, and inadequate architecture for international competition.”

During its tenure in office, The Obama-Biden Administration failed to respond to Putin’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. It failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest when China invaded the Philippines exclusive economic zone. It sharply underfunded and hollowed out the U.S. military. Those devastating mistakes encouraged America’s adversaries, and the error is being repeated again.

Photo: Chinese naval aviation brigade (China Defence Ministry photo)