Russia’s Hypersonic Threat

A Russian hypersonic missile traveling more than five times the speed of sound, capable of maneuvering a change in direction mid-air, and harder to intercept than traditional missiles operated by the United States… a recipe for disaster? It certainly would appear so. Last Thursday Russia announced an additional, successful test of its Zircon hypersonic missile. It comes only weeks after the Chinese successfully flew a similar missile, capable of traversing the South Pole, around the planet before landing it within an acceptable target range. The United States is at greater risk from Russia today, according to military analysts in Washington, as Putin is continuing to develop and test advanced offensive weapons systems capable of threatening our country’s national security.

It isn’t news to the Pentagon that the Russian military has been testing the Zircon missile. Tests have been ongoing for several years. What is newly disconcerting, is that Russian military efforts appear increasingly coordinated with those of China. The latest Russian missile test was launched in its Arctic waters off the Admiral Gorshkov, a naval warship. According to reports in the Russian media this week, it was a direct hit. Previous hypersonic missile tests included submarine launched versions of the Zircon missile. President Putin announced in his 2018 state of the nation speech that the Zircon missile was accurate at a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Today the “Zircon looks set to join Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles that were put into service in 2019 and the air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles in Russia’s arsenal,” according to the publication Space Wars. Once operations it will raise the risk level to American national security.

According to the Hoover Institute’s Kathrin Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo, both Russia and China are working together to gain an edge in next-generation hypersonic technology. What some military analysts in Washington are uncertain of is the level and extent of collaboration between the two communist countries. Russia still sells China advanced missile systems and technologies; however, China is quickly developing its own indigenous programs. Estimates now are that within this decade China will no longer need Russian military technology.

Indications are that Moscow is deepening its military relationship with Beijing. But all is not as it appears on the surface. Putin, like Russian leaders before him, remains wary of being drawn into a two-front war. Putin works with Xi Jinping and the CCP today but that is no guarantee of a long-term commitment should Beijing decide that Putin is no longer a valuable ally. Military leaders in Washington suggest this may make portend a more dangerous period of Russian aggression along its borderlands in the coming years if Russo-Chinese cooperation breaks down.

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The military posture of Russian troops along NATO’s eastern front complicates the picture. Unlike earlier periods Russian military technology today is not only a greater threat to Western Europe but to all 50 US states. A Submarine launched Zircon could likely hit every major city in the United States. Analysts acknowledge our military would have a challenging time detecting and stopping such launches. Russia also is well into a major upgrade of its nuclear forces. Adding to this threat are credible intelligence reports that Putin is pursuing a policy of using space for combat operations and deploying strike systems in it to achieve military superiority.

Each time Russia adds advanced weapons to its arsenal, it increases the potential of a mistake, a new border conflict, or potentially a great powers nuclear conflagration. When the Zircon goes into service it will dramatically increase the risk to other nation-states around the world. The US needs leadership in Washington that can not only respond to this increased threat it also needs to fund its response. To date, the annual NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act) has hundreds of amendments with none capable of addressing the Russian challenges presented by Putin’s improved military posture.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: The frigate Admiral Gorshkov successfully fired a hypersonic missile Zircon at a ground target (Russian Defence Ministry photo)

Quick Analysis

Alienating Allies

President Biden has called two key U.S. allies, India and Japan, “xenophobic.” As noted in a Hill report “Biden grouped Japan and India alongside China and Russia as ‘xenophobic countries,’ claiming being less open to immigrants has caused the countries’ economies to struggle since the COVID-19 pandemic.” The comment comes at a time when both of those nations are essential to American goals in the Indo-Pacific, including countering China’s massive arms buildup, North Korea’s growing nuclear prowess, and Russia’s increased presence in the region. China now has a larger fleet than the United States, and has powerful assistance from Russia. The U.S. State Department warns that “Across much of the Indo-Pacific region, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using military and economic coercion to bully its neighbors, advance unlawful maritime claims, threaten maritime shipping lanes, and destabilize territory along the periphery of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This predatory conduct increases the risk of miscalculation and conflict.” Alexey Muraviev, writing for the Asia Times notes that “China is not the only potentially adversarial maritime power that is flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia is becoming a cause for concern, too, even though the 2023 strategic review did not mention it….Between 2022 and October 2023, for instance, it commissioned eight new warships and auxiliaries, including four nuclear-powered and conventional submarines. On December 11, two new nuclear-powered submarines formally joined the fleet, in addition to the conventional RFS Mozhaisk submarine, which entered service last month.” Biden making a comment that directly and clearly harms both U.S. interests and those of key allies is hardly surprising, as evidenced by his bizarre actions regarding Israel. The Department of Defense states that “ Japan is growing and taking leadership roles that not only benefit people in the Indo-Pacific, but the global community, said Grace Park, the director for Japan policy at the Defense Department’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Office said… Japan, the fourth largest economy in the world, has taken a greater security role in the past decade, Park said. Japanese leaders are reorganizing the self-defense forces in the country, fielding new military capabilities, increasing the amount spent on self-defense and more. “I believe that the United States has gained a lot from this alliance relationship,” she said. It will soon play an even more significant role. The Department of Defense reports that “The U.S., Australia and the United Kingdom, members of the AUKUS partnership, are considering cooperation with Japan on advanced capabilities projects. …Japan was considered because of its strengths and its close defense partnership with all three countries, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, who held a press conference today. Japan is playing a larger role in other essential American alliances, as well. As reported in the American Military News, “The Philippines and the United States are considering the expansion of their annual “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) military exercises carried out under the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the United States, to include Japan. As this column has previously reported, India’s population, military strength, and strategic geographical location render it one of the world’s most important nations. The Pentagon notes that “Over the past decade, the U.S.-India defense relationship has become indispensable in promoting peace, prosperity and stability in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean region.” Since the start of his Administration, President Biden has consistently engaged in policies and actions that have emboldened America’s adversaries and alienating and worried allies. The consistency of his inexplicable course of action is now clear, and the U.S. citizenry deserves an immediate explanation. The highly partisan U.S. media has, until the current holdup of aid to Israel, turned a blind eye to Biden’s destructive foreign policies, allowing him to progress from one disaster to another. Illustration: Pixabay