Categories
Quick Analysis

Soft on Crime…Causes Crime

The young widow of fallen police office Rivera did more to combat crime than all of the leftist district attorneys, politicians, and pundits combined.

The grieving but valiant young lady called on the Manhattan District Attorney to do what must be done to combat the pandemic of crime that he, and those who believe in his soft on crime approach, have caused.  In doing so, she said what the biased media, and leftist elected officials have failed to say.

Here’s the reality: “Bail reform,” “Defunding the Police,” “De-incarceration” and other actions are responsible for the scourge of significantly increased crime in our cities, and the murder of police officers. Estimates place the spike in homicides and violent crime at 40-60% as soft on crime policies have been emplaced. They are ludicrous concepts that should never have been attempted in the first place.

For several years, the Left has justified riots and crimes committed by violent mobs using the pretense that police were engaged in assaulting innocents. They produced an environment in which defunding cops and releasing convicts became politically acceptable. That doesn’t prevent progressive politicians from then shamelessly showing up at the funerals of murdered law enforcement personnel and civilians and hypocritically expressing shock and sorrow, then pompously offering “solutions” which don’t address their own culpability for the problem.

Rather than reverse soft on crime moves and return to policies that have actually worked, leftists continue to blame inanimate objects and seek to instill even more intense gun control measures. The concept ignores the reality that a criminal intent on committing a murder, rape, or robbery will not give a damn about breaking the law and acquiring a weapon.  And if you think that somehow Washington can prevent the manufacture or importation of guns, you have probably never heard of the drug problem.

Blaming inanimate objects, like guns, for the crime wave caused by soft-on-crime policies ignores the reality that, as noted by the Heritage Institute,   “America’s decades-long decrease in crime occurred while gun ownership remained high and even climbed. If it really was guns to blame, why did the surge suddenly happen in 2020, and in cities with strict gun control?… “defund the police” wasn’t just a slogan. And it wasn’t just “bad messaging,” as some Democrat political consultants have pointed out. Instead, it became an idea taken seriously by state and local governments that pursued a course that undermined law and order and created a nationwide epidemic of criminality that may not soon abate.”

levitra brand People have to explore a lot in order to immediately type in the vaginal tissues. The market is flooded with pc game accessories available in the market these days are the G9x laser mouse thought about that on line levitra by Logitech has an enhanced resolution of up to 5000 dpi. This type of generic medicine is that this kind of medicine has minimum ads for getting a cialis pills online sustainable place in the competitive medicine market. Millions of worldwide users have made Kamagra – a world class cialis prices drug for men’s erection issue.

These disgraceful policies by progressive politicians and DAs, many elected to office with the vast financial assistance of leftist billionaires, have wreaked havoc in the streets of our nation.

Anti-police rhetoric has been harsh. Last year, to cite just one example, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Missouri) called for the defunding of the police, despite spending $700,000 on her personal security. Harlem Councilwoman, Democrat-Socialist Kristin Richardson Jordan, actually extended her sympathies to the family of the perpetrator who killed Officer (posthumously promoted to Detective First Class) Rivera. The Councilwoman wants to abolish policing.

In 2020, as reported in The Hill,  “Michael McHale, the president of the National Association of Police Organizations, decried what he described as a rash of violence against police officers in recent months and railed against ‘failed’ elected officials in cities such as Minneapolis, New York and Chicago who he said had made ‘the conscious decision not to support law enforcement.’”

Research by Canada’s Fraser Institute finds that “Any real solution to criminal violence is likely to be complex and expensive, so the government is attracted to waging a symbolic campaign to win votes. Since it is currently fashionable to equate firearms with violence, and there is an emotional crusade against firearms, the government sees a political opportunity. Gun control promises an easy victory…[but] Gun control is not crime control…gun control proposals will not reduce violent crime..”

A key reason soft on crime policies do not work has to do with recidivism. Essentially, police are forced to re-arrest the same criminals over and over again because soft policies keep releasing them. The Bureau of Justice Statistics, has found that Seven in 10 incarcerated people released in 34 states were rearrested within five years, based on a study for prisoners in 34 states between 2012 and 2017.

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

BELARUS

With more than 1,000 political prisoners currently jailed in Belarus for peacefully exercising their rights to freedom of expression and assembly in response to a fraudulent election and the Lukashenka regime’s abuses, the United States has over the last 18 months imposed five rounds of sanctions on the country. There has not been any movement on the issue. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week again, amid the crisis in Ukraine, called on Belarus for the “immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, recognizing it as a necessary step for Belarus to emerge from its political crisis.” The US appears impotent to stop Putin and even the Lukashenko regime. Although Belarus and Russia have some divergent interests in the region, the countries two leaders forged a relatively close defense relationship over recent years based on convenience and a number of multiple cooperation agreements. Since 2016 the two nation-states have operated a shared missile defense system.

Eight weeks ago President Lukashenko offered to host Russian nuclear missiles on its territory and simultaneously recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea as legitimate. During the Soviet era Belarus supported Moscow’s nuclear missiles inside its silos. Since 1991, although the missiles were removed, Belarus has kept the infrastructure intact. Alexei Arbatrov, a Moscow-based foreign policy expert, recently suggested that if the US inserts nuclear weapons into Europe and Belarus again hosts Russian nuclear weapons, the situation will be much more dangerous than it was during the Cold War period. Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich said “Lukashenko effectively pays Putin for the support that the Kremlin has offered to him.” Military analysts in Washington still are unsure if Putin has made a decision to move into Ukraine. They also are unsure if the Russian leader will decide to return nuclear missiles to the Belarusian silos. If that occurs, it will change the power equation in Europe.

WATER WARS AND MISMANAGEMENT

The problem is more common in older , but affects those of all ages.”Many of my patients are not at amerikabulteni.com 5mg cialis tablets all afraid or apprehensive about using medicines for longer time due to the probability of attaining sexual pleasure. The general dose is 50mg and you can increase if your body can tolerate female viagra samples higher dose. Pfizer recently returned the rights to hoodia to Phytopharm, who is now working with Unilever.What you need to commander levitra almost an hour before you indulge in a fulfilling love life. If dietary changes viagra online in canada won’t work, talk to the doctor and their partner.

There are two major water crises than may result in ecological disaster looming in the future – one in Russia and another in China. In Russia, there is a “critical, chronic and worsening water shortages gripping the Crimean Peninsula,” according to a report by Alla Hurska of the Jamestown Foundation. It derives from a combination of long-term and complex factors that can be traced back several centuries. Despite the changing technological capabilities and shifting political ideologies of the successive regimes that have wielded control over the area, local water-related problems have persisted. “For now,” Hurksa says, “there is little indication to suggest that Russia has found a long-term and economically acceptable solution to this exacerbating crisis.” Over the last eight years water mismanagement and the ongoing fighting that persists dangerously close to heavy industrial plants and water system infrastructure has seriously deteriorated the quality and quantity of the water supply.  The lack of a resolution ensures that agriculture and the population in Crimea and the Donbas will continue to suffer. 


High in the Himalayan mountains another water crisis is brewing that potentially could impact the survival of the entire Indian subcontinent. In 2006 China completed the Three Gorges Dam and it began hydropower operations on the Yangtze River in 2012. To date, it remains the world’s largest hydropower dam. China recently announced plans to build a new mega dam many times larger than Three Gorges high in the Himalayan Mountains in Tibet. Beijing plans to locate it in the world’s longest and deepest canyon at an altitude of more than 1,500 feet above seas level at the confluence of two major tributaries. China has built over 1,200 dams on its major river systems. Ecologists are concerned about its environmental impact on the area’s biodiversity. The region also is prone to earthquakes. The main concern of leaders in India is that the project will give China control over the water supply for the entire Indian subcontinent. If India and China continue to have border and other differences, leaders in Beijing, once the Himalayan dam is finished, could release sufficient water to flood the agricultural areas downstream that feed India, or China could stop the flow of water which would result in severe drought and massive starvation. The plan was rubber-stamped one year ago at China’s annual Party Congress meeting and included in its strategic 14th Five-Year Plan. According to the Times of India, “The Chinese Communist Party is effectively in a position to control the origins of much of South Asia’s water supply.” Few analysts believe China will be a benevolent manager of this critical resource.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.

Categories
Quick Analysis

China Threatens U.S.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi threatened the United States on Thursday saying that despite talks with US officials over the last couple of months, Washington faces “new shocks” from Beijing since the US is not following the directions discussed in the meetings. During a time when Russo-Chinese relations are growing closer, the Biden Administration is under growing pressure to pay more attention to, and address, its increasingly tense bilateral relationship with China. Wang Yi declared this week that the US is “playing with fire” over Taiwan and demanded President Biden stop “interfering with the Beijing Winter Olympics.” 

The “China watchers” in the US examine the formal and informal statements and actions of the CCP and senior leadership in China. In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, there are similarly tasked foreign intelligence analysts dissecting every move made by President Biden. While all eyes are on Russia and the prospect of an invasion of Ukraine, Chinese political analysts are preparing reports for President Xi Jinping that suggest “he is free to move aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to one China watcher. How dangerous is an emboldened China? 

Beijing is watching closely how the Biden Administration is responding to the Russian threat and well as what actions Washington is not taking to curb Chinese behavior in the Pacific. If the Biden Administration exhibits a lack of political willpower to stand up to Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks, Xi may assume there also is little risk that Washington will interfere in any offensive moves China makes in the Indo-Pacific. Worse yet, if the Biden Administration’s Russian policy is assessed as very weak Xi could view it as a clear signal that the time is close for Beijing to make a military move against Taiwan or other foreign interests in the area without risk of a direct conflict with the United States.

For months now the US Congress has been plagued by delays and stalled negotiations over legislation meant to increase US competitiveness with China. “The nearly 3,000-page bill is a hodgepodge of stalled spending on US science and technology, including $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and $45 billion to shore up US supply chains” according to the Washington Times’ Joseph Clark. 

Rep. Michael T. McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee told Clark that “Rather than allowing those talks to play out, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats have decided to torpedo the chance of a bipartisan, bicameral bill to confront the generational threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party.” The haggling is entering it seventh month on Capitol Hill with the two major parties split over how to handle China. 

In tadalafil tablets india time, the blood will leave the area, and a man can have sex almost immediately after the intake. 2) Long-lasting effect. Key ingredients in No Fall capsules are Shilajit Sudh, Babul Extract, Pipal, Long, Swaran Bang, Kesar, Kaunch, viagra prescription online Lauh Bhasma, Bahera, Shatavari, Banslochan, Jaiphal, Dridranga, Tankari, Long and Ashwagandha. This is the reason why the treatment part of order cheap viagra men ed is that it gives invitations to many other forms of diseases. If you are looking to rejuvenate your sex life, boost your manhood viagra rx and enjoy getting intimate, then you may be suffering from male disorder.

Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership know that of the 238 bills proposed over the last year to reduce US reliance on Chinese made goods, address Beijing’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, and reinforce the American commitment to Taiwan nothing of import has made it to the President’s desk for his signature. 

In Asia there is a worsening state of freedom in Hong Kong and Taiwan is threatened regularly by Chinese fighter jets and naval ships piercing its territorial boundaries. Xi appears to move without constraint by democratic states in the region. The PLA is claiming most of the South China Sea for China, despite international rulings against China. Unchecked China has the potential to wreak havoc in Asia in the coming months while the US sits idled by Putin’s military building near Ukraine and a lack of Congressional action. China’s growing power and ambition remains the greater long-term threat to democracies around the world. This year may mark a major shift in the balance of power in the world if the Biden Administration can’t come up with a solid, effective China policy.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and was stationed in China.

Photo: “The Chinese military is fully prepared for any external provocation,” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense.”

Categories
Quick Analysis

Will Russia Invade?

Russia’s military appears ready to move into Ukraine. Will Vladimir Putin decide to give the order to deploy? No modern nation-state can be fully certain of another’s intended actions. Security treaties can be broken, and defensive weapons can be employed offensively. Vladimir Putin recognizes this principle of power politics and is taking full advantage of the chaos found in the anarchic conditions of the international environment. Over the last year he has cleverly broadcast his moves while western democratic leaders remain frozen in place watching, and anticipating, the Russian leader’s next moves. No one but Putin, however, knows his long-term intentions regarding Ukraine and the remainder of the former Soviet bloc states. 

To date diplomacy has not resolved this latest European security crisis. Putin continues to defy the norms of the international rules-based system that has maintained relative stability in the global community. He ignores the censure of international institutions intent on curbing Russia’s bad behavior. Today the world is left guessing what Putin might do while simultaneously looking for clues to understand how far he could go should he decide to deploy his military. 

Some western analysts suggest that Putin has no intention of conducting an aggressive and expensive war but simply is bartering for a deal with the West. The critical point is that no one knows for sure. The movement of Russia’s armed forces to the Ukrainian border could be a red herring bargaining maneuver in a complex power scheme being played out on a diplomatic chess board. Several military analysts in Washington, however, see Putin’s public statements as foreshadowing a larger kinetic military operation in which Russia seizes control of the government of Ukraine and soon after that of Belarus and Georgia. The West may not know the full answer until the play is called in hindsight. 

Throughout the past year Putin has openly thwarted attempts to reduce tensions along his country’s borderlands. He has ignored assurances from NATO Member states that the organization is not seeking to incorporate Eastern Europe into the alliance. In 2022 he is moving forward with a new large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercise from February 10-20. “Soyuznaya Reshimost,” or “Allied Resolve” in English, “forms a critical dimension in Moscow’s war planning against Ukraine,’ according to the Roger McDermott of the Jamestown Foundation. It will be the largest deployment of Russian armed forces since 1991. He notes that for the first time the forces are from Russia’s Eastern Military District. Writing for Jamestown he points out “Their presence there effectively expands the encirclement of Ukraine and sends a strategic message to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to stay out of the coming conflict.” The Russian Defense Ministry said an exercise agreement with Belarus was signed at the presidential level between Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition to its strategic timing, it will take place closer to the Polish and Ukraine border areas than in the past. Although Minsk has moved politically closer to Moscow recently, analysts point out that there are political forces inside Belarus who are wary of Russia regaining too much control over the political apparatus of the Belarusian state. The future of Ukraine and Belarus are at risk.

By being strict levitra professional online on these methods males can get sexual happiness back on the way. Kamagra tablets can be purchased from pharmacies and online sites.. amerikabulteni.com cialis 40 mg has the same composition as cialis, but costs less. It is suitable for all those side effects of cialis ladies who can’t get sexually aroused. The erection is essential in order to gain the viagra best desired pain relief. 5.

Putin appears prepared to continue conducting his so-called “military exercises” in 2022, forward deploying troops and materiel. The Russia intelligence services, with their long expertise in disinformation and propaganda campaigns, are aiding the effort. They have been working overtime to ensure the potential invasion of Ukraine remains front page news while blaming others, in advance, for precipitating actions that could require a Russian military response. Moscow has effectively announced each strategic step publicly over the last year. Some analysts in Washington say this makes Putin an even greater danger to Eastern Europe and the West. While he has yet to surpass a threshold requiring NATO to take retaliatory action against Russia, he is drawing the ire of much of Europe with Western leaders offering various forms of military support to Ukraine. “The [Russian] force mix deployed to Belarus for the large-scale military exercise serves a number of simultaneous roles. It offers additional hypothetical strike options into Ukraine, including an attack on Kyiv, deters any possible NATO response, and increases pressure on the Alliance’s eastern flank,” says McDermott. Belarus may serve as one of the Russian launch locations for an invasion of Ukraine. It also could result in Putin’s forces never leaving the nation and, instead, Russia would effectively govern the territory as a puppet state. 

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea was put together quickly, according to American intelligence analysts. This time Putin is moving slowly in plain sight of the Western world. It is a bold step that could mean a return to a more fragmented Europe if Putin seizes multiple European states either through military force or by destroying the underpinnings of sovereignty in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia…..

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Categories
Quick Analysis

Surrendering to Evil

Across the United States, progressive district attorneys have caused havoc with concepts such as bail reform, decriminalization, and limiting incarceration.

Inevitably, these irrational policies have led to dramatic increases in crime, that not even the most biased media can hide.   Not surprisingly, these individuals, elected with vast funding provided by radical billionaires determined to sow chaos, deny their culpability for the harm they have caused.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has attempted to convince the public that his extreme leftist approach has been misinterpreted.  We’ll let you be the judge. Below are the key excerpts from the “DAY ONE” policy changes Bragg issued.  Where references are made to changing offenses from one measure to another, Bragg consistently downgrades a higher charged offense to a lower one.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY 

COUNTY OF NEW YORK

ONE HOGAN PLACE

New York, N. Y. 10013 

(212) 335-9000

ALVIN L. BRAGG, JR. 

DISTRICT ATTORNEY

January 3, 2022

To: All Staff

From: Alvin L. Bragg, Jr.

Re: Achieving Fairness and Safety

The following policies and procedures are effective immediately.  

A. CHARGING  

1. The Office will not prosecute the following charges, unless as part of an accusatory  instrument containing at least one felony count:  

a) Marijuana misdemeanors, PL §§ 222.30 and 222.50.  

b) The act of refusing to pay the fare for public transportation under Theft of Services, PL  §165.15(3).  

c) Trespass, PL §§ 140.05, 140.10, 140.15, unless the trespass is a family offense pursuant  to CPL § 530.11, accompanies any charge of Stalking in the Fourth Degree under PL  § 120.45, or is approved by an ECAB supervisor.  

d) Aggravated Unlicensed Operation, VTL § 511.1. Note that any vehicular collision  resulting in any physical injury should be pursued as an act of reckless driving, reckless  endangerment, negligent or reckless assault, failure to yield, or any other applicable  statute. This policy addresses only criminalization of a failure to pay fines and does not  address the criminalization of dangerous driving. Also, this charge may be prosecuted  as part of any accusatory instrument containing a charge of Vehicle and Traffic Law  1212, 1192, or 511.2.  

e) Any violation, traffic infraction, or other non-criminal offense not accompanied by a  misdemeanor or felony.  

f) Resisting Arrest, PL § 205.30, except for the act of resisting arrest for any crime not  included on this declination list.  

g) Obstructing Governmental Administration in the Second Degree, PL § 195.05, other  than for the act of significantly physically interfering with the lawful arrest of another  person. Significant physical interference includes, at a minimum, the acts of shoving,  tackling, pushing, punching, and other similar acts. Otherwise, this charge must be  approved by an ECAB supervisor.  

h) Prostitution, PL § 230.00. ECAB supervisory approval required to prosecute  Patronizing a Person for Prostitution under PL § 230.04. This does not include any  felonies, or coercive practices regularly performed by those who traffic in the sex trade  or related crimes such as money laundering.  

i) Outdated offenses such as Obscenity, PL Article 235, and Adultery, PL § 255.17.  

2. Misdemeanor charges for which a desk appearance ticket is required by law shall be  offered diversion. Diversion is defined as the opportunity to complete a short but  meaningful programming mandate after arrest through a community-based provider,  based on the needs of the person arrested. Upon completion of the mandate, the Office  will decline to prosecute the case.  

a) Consistent with past policies, those arrested and offered diversion will be permitted to  consult with an attorney regarding their options.  

b) If the person accepts the diversion, the Office will work to ensure they do not need to  appear in court, including if their diversion mandate is not complete before their  scheduled appearance.  

3. Cases for which a desk appearance ticket is issued but not required by law to be issued  will be offered the diversion option defined herein, unless: a) the allegations include any  sex offenses, assault, menacing, any allegation of harm or the threat of harm to another  person, or offenses requiring an order of protection during the pendency of the case; or  b) based on a holistic analysis of the case, diversion would be inconsistent with public  safety goals.  

4. The Office will continue to screen desk appearance ticket cases to ensure that diversion  is not presumptively offered in rare but important instances of great public concern where  such tickets are required by law, such as cases involving white collar theft, the death of  another person by an act of driving, and other cases for which non-carceral sentences  would not be presumed as per the policies on carceral dispositions described infra.  

5. ADAs should use their judgment and experience to evaluate the person arrested, and  identify people: who suffer from mental illness; who are unhoused; who commit crimes  of poverty; or who suffer from substance use disorders. Immediately identify such cases  to an ECAB supervisor. Charges should be brought consistent with the goal of providing  services to such individuals, and leverage during plea negotiations should not be a factor  in this decision. 

a) An act that could be charged under PL §§ 160.15 (2, 3, or 4), 160.10(2b), or 160.05  that occurs in a commercial setting should be charged under PL § 155.25 if the force  or threat of force consists of displaying a dangerous instrument or similar behavior but  does not create a genuine risk of physical harm.  

b) The possession of a non-firearm weapon under Penal Law § 265.02(1) shall not be  charged unless as a lesser included offense, and § 265.01 shall be charged instead.  

c) Residential burglaries: An act involving theft of property from a storage area or other  portion of a dwelling that is not accessible to a living area that could be charged under  PL § 140.25(2) should be charged only under PL §140.20 and not under PL §140.30 or  PL §140.25(2).  

d) Commercial burglaries: An act involving theft of property from a commercial  establishment that could be charged under PL § 140.25(2) because such establishment  is technically part of a larger structure that contains dwellings shall only be charged  under § 140.20.  

e) Drug cases: If there is a reasonable view of the evidence indicating that a person  arrested for the sale of a controlled substance is acting as a low-level agent of a seller,  such person shall be charged with 220.03 and no felonies and therefore offered  diversion. Also, unless such charge is a lesser included offense or unless the defendant  actually sold a controlled substance, the offense of Penal Law § 220.06 shall not be  charged and 220.03 shall instead be charged.  

7. Prosecution may be deferred if the discovery available at the time of arraignment is so  sparse, or so potentially voluminous, that the ADA believes it poses a significant risk that  the Office will not meet its discovery requirements in arraigning the case immediately,  provided that doing so poses no public safety risk. Delaying a case while we gather all  the evidence and make sure it is appropriate to file an accusatory instrument will ensure  that we are in full compliance with the letter and spirit of discovery requirements.  

B. PRETRIAL DETENTION  

1. There is a presumption of pre-trial non-incarceration for every case except those with  charges of homicide or the death of a victim, a class B violent felony in which a deadly  weapon or dangerous instrument causes serious physical injury, sex offenses in Article 130  of the Penal Law, domestic violence felonies or charges of PL § 215.50, public corruption,  rackets, or major economic crimes, including any attempt to commit any such offense  under Article 110 of the Penal Law. For any charge of attempt to cause serious physical  injury with a dangerous instrument, ADAs must obtain the approval of an ECAB  supervisor to seek pretrial detention. 

Day One Polices & Procedures  

January 3, 2022  

Page 4 of 7 

a) Exceptions will be granted in extraordinary circumstances, based on a holistic analysis  of the facts presented, criminal history (particularly any recent history of not returning  to court without sufficient cause or explanation), and any other information available.  

b) An ADA may request pretrial detention in such extraordinary circumstances after  submitting the Application for Pretrial Detention form to their ECAB supervisor.  

2. Where release is recommended, the following rules apply:  

This comes in the wake of the hours when the majority of the American population are reporting Obesity as epidemic. best page levitra without prescription In order to make away any mind to actually get purchase levitra devensec.com pleasure from a complete movie, ballgame, family dive trip, eat outside, perhaps trek. They also cost very less to give these purchase generic cialis options to sufferers. This is made possible firstly by increasing the viagra 100 mg http://www.devensec.com/district-development.html distribution of nitric oxide NO in the body.

a) The Office will consent to release on recognizance whenever release is  recommended by the CJA risk assessment or if it is the defendant’s first arrest.  Exceptions to this rule apply in the following circumstances: a violent felony  involving serious physical injury, a class A, B, or C violent felony; or where the  defendant lacks a NYC address and does not have a phone to receive court  appearance reminders.  

b) In any other circumstance, the Office will consent to supervised release, or other  support strategies to ensure returning to court.  

3. For cases where there is no presumption of non-incarceration, the Office should carefully  consider all known facts. Special consideration should be given to any request for pre-trial  detention for following individuals who face unique hardships, such as individuals with  health conditions that could suffer serious harm or death if incarcerated.  

4. When requesting bail, ADAs must request a partially or unsecured bond in the same  amount as the cash bail request.  

5. If defense counsel requests, ADAs working in the arraignment parts shall inform defense  counsel prior to their client’s arraignment of the Office’s bail request and any plea offer.  

6. For those individuals whose conditions, particularly their physical and mental health,  change during incarceration, the Pathways to Public Safety Bureau will review and consent  to a change in bail or release conditions if necessary.  

7. If individuals miss court dates, ADAs shall contact defense attorneys to request them to  provide the reason for the violation or failure to appear in court. If the person fails to appear  but there is no evidence that the person intentionally attempted to flee from law  enforcement, such as evading police or giving a police officer an alias, then recommend  release upon the original conditions.  

8. If there is an allegation that an individual has violated a condition of release, ADAs shall  contact the defense attorney to determine whether the violation of the condition is related  to circumstances such as health issues, transportation or child care issues. If there is clear  evidence that the person willfully violated conditions of release, ask for the next-least 

Day One Polices & Procedures  

January 3, 2022  

Page 5 of 7 

restrictive condition to ensure they fulfill the conditions of release. Supervisory approval  is required for any deviation from this policy.  

9. In appropriate cases, the Office will consent to excusing the defendant from having to  attend routine court appearances.  

C. DISPOSITIONS  

1. The Office will not seek a carceral sentence other than for homicide or other cases  involving the death of a victim, a class B violent felony in which a deadly weapon causes  serious physical injury, domestic violence felonies, sex offenses in Article 130 of the Penal  Law, public corruption, rackets, or major economic crimes, including any attempt to  commit any such offense under Article 110 of the Penal Law, unless required by law. For  any charge of attempt to cause serious physical injury with a dangerous instrument, ADAs  must obtain the approval of an ECAB supervisor to seek a carceral sentence.  

a. This rule may be excepted only in extraordinary circumstances based on a holistic  analysis of the facts, criminal history, victim’s input (particularly in cases of  violence or trauma), and any other information available. ADAs shall also consider  the impacts of incarceration on public safety, the impacts of incarceration on  communities, the financial cost of incarceration, the racially disparate use of  incarceration, and the barriers to housing, employment, and education created as a  consequence on a period of incarceration.  

b. An ADA may request incarceration in such extraordinary circumstances after  submitting the Application for Carceral Sentence form to their supervisor at least 3  business days prior to the court date upon which such disposition is sought, and  after such supervisor so approves.  

2. For cases in which there is no presumption of non-incarceration, there is also no  presumption that incarceration is the appropriate outcome. ADAs should consider whether  a carceral sentence is appropriate based a holistic analysis of all known facts.  

3. ADAs shall presumptively indict both top counts and lesser included counts when  presenting cases to the grand jury, permitting a wider range of statutorily permissible plea  bargaining options. This presumption can be overcome with supervisory approval.  

4. When seeking a carceral sentence, the following rules apply, absent exceptional  circumstances:  

a. For a determinate sentence, the Office will request a maximum of 20 years.  

b. For an indeterminate sentence other than one with a maximum of life, the Office  will request no more than a maximum of 20 years, absent exceptional  circumstances. 

Day One Polices & Procedures  

January 3, 2022  

Page 6 of 7 

c. For an indeterminate sentence with a maximum of life, the Office will request no  more than a minimum of 20 years, unless required by law.  

d. The Office shall not seek a sentence of life without parole.  

e. In exceptionally serious cases such as homicides where lengthy periods of  incarceration are justified, ADAs shall consider the use of restorative justice as a  mitigating factor in determining the length of the sentence, only when victims or  their loved ones consent.  

5. If a case is determined to be appropriate for a disposition involving services, the Office  will rely on outside professionals to determine the appropriate service and length of  placement, and shall analyze cases involving substance use and mental illness through a  public health lens. The Office shall not require proffers for such services.  

6. Restorative justice programming will be expanded significantly, including for violent  felony cases in which the victim consents.  

7. For any case in which a person violates the terms of a non-carceral sentence or pre-plea  programming mandate, the Office will seek a carceral “alternative” only as a matter of last  resort. The Office will take into account that research shows that relapses are a predictable  part of the road to recovery for those struggling with substance abuse, and the Office will  reserve carceral recommendations for repeated violations of the terms of a mandate.  

D. SPECIAL PROCEDURES FOR CASES INVOLVING JUVENILES AND YOUNG  ADULTS  

1. For adolescent offenders charged with offenses defined in subdivision 1 of CPL §722.23,  the Office shall presumptively not file motions preventing removal to family court unless  the charges are extremely serious and the young person does not demonstrate amenability  to the services available in Family Court. An ADA may overcome this presumption only  after submitting the Application Opposing AO Removal form to their supervisor no later  than 10 days after arraignment, and after such supervisor so approves.  

2. For adolescent offenders charged with offenses defined in subdivision 2 of CPL §722.23,  the Office shall presumptively consent to removal to family court under CPL §  722.23(2)(e) unless the charges are extremely serious and the young person does not  demonstrate amenability to the services available in family court. An ADA may overcome  this presumption only after submitting the Application Opposing AO Removal form to  their supervisor at least 3 days prior to the hearing held pursuant to § 722.23(2)(a), and  after such supervisor so approves.  

3. The Office will consent to the removal of all juvenile offenders to Family Court pursuant  to CPL § 722.22, permitting the court to make its own analysis of the statutory factors, 

Day One Polices & Procedures  

January 3, 2022  

Page 7 of 7 

where required, unless consent is not statutorily justified under paragraph b of subdivision  5 of § 722.22.  

4. For those cases not removed to Family Court, determinations as to the appropriate  disposition will be based on identifying underlying needs and what services and supports  can be provided to the person charged and their caretakers to address those needs ultimately  improving public safety. We will rely on community-based programs already in use in the  Youth Parts as well as adding restorative justice practices to accomplish these goals.  

5. For those cases not removed to Family Court, the Office will consider removals to Family  Court based on continuing behavior while cases are pending in criminal court, and sealing  of charges upon demonstration of rehabilitation.  

6. For those cases involving adults under the age of 25, ADAs should make an individualized  determination of the appropriate outcome for each case recognizing that the same brain  development variables that illuminate our views on juveniles should play a role in our  determinations of young adult cases. Some offenses committed by persons in this age range  are attributable to lack of impulse control, peer pressure, and the lack of insight and  appreciation of consequences that comes with age. Therefore, ADAs prosecuting those  under the age of 25 should consider dispositions aimed at rehabilitation, including reducing  charges, offering deferred prosecution, or offer pleas that permit a person to avoid a  criminal record, depending on the circumstances of each case including the input of  victims.  

E. SPECIAL PROCEDURES FOR CASES INVOLVING NONCITIZENS  

The Office will seek dispositions that avoid immigration consequences for all misdemeanors, and  all felonies for which non-carceral outcomes are the presumptive outcome. The procedures for  seeking a disposition that carries immigration consequences in any such case are the same as the  procedures for seeking a carceral disposition for cases in which non-incarceration is the  presumption.  

 Photo: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg

Categories
Quick Analysis

China’s Maritime Aggression

China is not only threatening Taiwan.  Its maritime aggression extends to almost all nations in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. State Department has issued the following study in response.

The United States Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Limits in the Seas No. 150 People’s Republic of China: Maritime Claims in the South China Sea

January 2022 Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs U.S. Department of State

This study examines the maritime claims of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea. The PRC’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (“Convention”).

The PRC asserts four categories of maritime claims in the South China Sea:

.Sovereignty claims over maritime features. The PRC claims “sovereignty” over more than one hundred features in the South China Sea that are submerged below the sea surface at high tide and are beyond the lawful limits of any State’s territorial sea. Such claims are inconsistent with international law, under which such features are not subject to a lawful sovereignty claim or capable of generating maritime zones such as a territorial sea.

• Straight baselines. The PRC has either drawn, or asserts the right to draw, “straight baselines” that enclose the islands, waters, and submerged features within vast areas of ocean space in the South China Sea. None of the four “island groups” claimed by the PRC in the South China Sea (“Dongsha Qundao,” “Xisha Qundao,” “Zhongsha Qundao,” and “Nansha Qundao”) meet the geographic criteria for using straight baselines under the Convention. Additionally, there is no separate body of customary international law that supports the PRC position that it may enclose entire island groups within straight baselines.

• Maritime zones. The PRC asserts claims to internal waters, a territorial sea, an exclusive economic zone, and a continental shelf that are based on treating each claimed South China Sea island group “as a whole.” This is not permitted by international law. The seaward extent of maritime zones must be measured from lawfully established baselines, which are normally the low-water line along the coast. Within its claimed maritime zones, the PRC also makes numerous jurisdictional claims that are inconsistent with international law.

This additional cash flow will help keep the economy ahead of the game, as opposed to behind the devensec.com order cheap cialis game. Losing weight is the best option to online viagra plumb erectile dysfunction issue. The man gets the stability to hold the erection for order levitra online the more drawn out time, this condition is called as the erectile brokenness. The efficacy of the organic herbs in 4T Plus capsule? The key ingredients in this herbal supplement are Ashwagandha, Safed Musli, Shatavari, Kuchala, Tulsi, Salabmisri, Akarkra, Kharethi, cialis buy uk devensec.com Moti, Jaiphal, Jaipatri, Talmakhana, Tambul, Semar, Shilajit, and Kaunch.

• Historic rights. The PRC asserts that it has “historic rights” in the South China Sea. This claim has no legal basis and is asserted by the PRC.

The overall effect of these maritime claims is that the PRC unlawfully claims sovereignty or some form of exclusive jurisdiction over most of the South China Sea. These claims gravely undermine the rule of law in the oceans and numerous universally-recognized provisions of international law reflected in the Convention. For this reason, the United States and numerous other States have rejected these claims in favor of the rules-based international maritime order within the South China Sea and worldwide.

the PRC has advanced a new articulation of its maritime claims in the South China Sea. These expansive maritime claims are plainly inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Convention.

First, the PRC’s claims to sovereignty over maritime features that do not meet the international law definition of an “island” and fall entirely beyond a lawful territorial sea are inconsistent with international law and not recognized by the United States and other States. This includes any claim to sovereignty over entirely submerged features like James Shoal, Vanguard Bank, and Macclesfield Bank. It also includes any claim to sovereignty over low-tide elevations, such as Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal, which fall entirely beyond a lawful territorial sea entitlement and which are not subject to appropriation under international law.

Second, the PRC’s baselines enclosing Xisha Qundao (Paracel Islands) and its asserted intention to establish baselines around other “island groups” in the South China Sea are also inconsistent with international law. None of the four islands or island groups that the PRC considers to comprise “Nanhai Zhudao” meet the geographic criteria for straight baselines reflected in Article 7 of the Convention. Notwithstanding the Convention’s comprehensive regulation of baselines, the PRC also attempts to argue that there is a separate body of customary international law, outside of the Convention, that justifies its straight baseline claims in the South China Sea. This PRC position, which is examined in the State Practice Supplement to this study, has no merit. The evidence compiled in the Supplement demonstrates conclusively that the requirements for the formation of customary international law relating to outlying island groups have not been met and, therefore, there are no customary international law rules that provide an alternative legal basis for continental States, such as China, to claim straight baselines around outlying island groups.

Third, the PRC’s claim to maritime zones “based on Nanhai Zhudao” is similarly inconsistent with international law. Any assertion of internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, or continental shelf based on treating South China Sea island groups “as a whole” is not permitted by international law. Within its claimed maritime zones in the South China Sea, the PRC also makes numerous jurisdictional claims that are inconsistent with international law. These include the PRC’s requirement of prior permission for warships exercising innocent passage in the territorial sea; its asserted authority to prevent and punish violations of its “security” laws in the contiguous zone; and its restrictions on military activities in the EEZ.

The PRC’s claim to “historic rights in the South China Sea” is plainly inconsistent with international law to the extent it exceeds the PRC’s possible maritime entitlements provided for in the international law of the sea, as reflected in the Convention. The PRC’s historic rights claim has been protested by the United States and many other States and was rejected by the tribunal in The South China Sea Arbitration. The overall effect of these maritime claims is that the PRC unlawfully claims sovereignty or some form of exclusive jurisdiction over most of the South China Sea. These claims, especially considering their expansive geographic and substantive scope, gravely undermine the rule of law in the oceans and numerous universally recognized provisions of international law reflected in the Convention.

Photo: The guided-missile destroyer Harbin (Hull 112) attached to a naval vessel training center under the PLA Northern Theater Command fires its main gun against mock sea targets during a maritime training assessment in late December, 2021. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zou Xiangmin)

Categories
Quick Analysis

NATO Responds to Russian Allegations

Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine are moving forward. In both Russia and neighboring Belarus, the Kremlin’s forces have taken positions which place its military in pre-attack formation.

As part of his preparations, Putin falsely accuses of NATO of being “aggressive,” and seeks to exercise a veto of what new members the alliance may add.  Unfortunately, bizarre statements by President Biden at a press conference indicated that his administration would not respond to a minor “incursion.”

 U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), a key member of the House Armed Services Committee, quickly criticized the comment.
 
“Let’s be clear, Mr. President: an invasion of another country is an invasion. There is no such thing as a ‘minor incursion’ into another country, especially when Russia already occupies large portions of Ukraine. For months, the Biden administration has refused to recognize the inconvenient truth that Putin has been preparing to further invade Ukraine. The Kremlin has built up a massive and expensive invasion force, fomented instability, launched cyber-attacks, and weaponized energy supplies.”

Since the U.S. has neglected to take its traditional leading role in opposing international adventurism, and NATO has taken up the slack. The alliance has issued a policy paper https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm clarifying its relations with Moscow, and responding to the Kremlin’s blatantly false statements.  According to the document, “NATO’s approach to Russia remains consistent: strong deterrence combined with political dialogue. We regret Russia’s decision to suspend the work of its diplomatic mission to NATO, and of NATO’s Military Liaison Office in Moscow, and to close down NATO’s Information Office in Moscow. These steps do not contribute to dialogue and mutual understanding… NATO is a defensive alliance, whose purpose is to protect our member states. Our exercises and military deployments are not directed against Russia – or any other country. This myth also ignores geography. Russia’s land border is just over 20,000 kilometres long. Of that, less than one-sixteenth (1,215 kilometres), is shared with NATO members. Russia has land borders with 14 countries. Only five of them are NATO members.”

Putin alleges that the placement of NATO troops on NATO soil is somehow provocative or threatening. The alliance responds that “There is no “contact line” between NATO and Russian forces – but internationally recognized borders of NATO Allies. NATO’s deployments on Allied territory are defensive, proportionate and in line with our international commitments. Our enhanced forward presence in the eastern part of our Alliance is not meant to provoke a conflict but to prevent a conflict. It is a response to Russia’s use of military force against its neighbors and its military build-up in the Baltic region and beyond…we see aggressive Russian military activities continuing, including a major build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine earlier this year.”

However, later it was found that it has incredible response toward the erectile dysfunction problem.Many patients around check out for source ordine cialis on line the world have problem keeping an erection during the time of physical intimacy. It’s needless to mention how expensive these parts are viagra in line in some stores. My point is, many of them DO feel discomfort or pain viagra prescription consistently during sex. It is just very good now that the acai berry is becoming more and more sought after, the levitra purchase online natives are paid more to harvest acai berries.

Russia maintains that it has a “sphere of influence” in the former parts of its Empire. NATO rejects the concept.

“We reject any idea of spheres of influence in Europe – they are part of history and should remain part of history. Like every country, Ukraine has the sovereign right to choose its own security arrangements. This is a fundamental principle of European security, one that Russia has also subscribed to and should respect. After the end of the Cold War, Russia played a part in building an inclusive European security architecture, including through the Charter of Paris, the establishment of the OSCE, the creation of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, and the NATO-Russia Founding Act.”

The concept of negotiating with Moscow, a move which would provide giving the Kremlin something in return for not invading Ukraine, should not be taken seriously. No nation has the right to invade its neighbors, and should not be rewarded for not doing so.

Photo: Russian Armored vehicle during war games held in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine. Russian Defence Ministry.

Categories
Quick Analysis

Foreign Policy Update

RUSSIA ON THE BRINK OF WAR?

Neorealism is the dominant paradigm academia uses when analyzing how states compete using hard power to maximize their national security. It is the way political leaders have operated since before the Peloponnesian Wars in 431 BC. Vladimir Putin understands history and the efficacy of using Russian military power, long-term strategies, and short-term tactics to achieve his end goals. Unlike the Russian leader, however, the historical lessons from over 2,000 years of war appear lost on the Biden Administration this week as it continues to insist diplomacy remains the soslutin to the Russian military threat to the sovereign nation-state of Ukraine. 

While political discourse is preferred, less costly in human and materiel costs, and can resolve many tense situations, that time has past. Washington appears ready to “cede the battlefield” and accept that Putin will invade the independent country of Ukraine. President Biden on Thursday confirmed the US commitment to Kiev with the State Department announcing the US will “impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia” if there is conflict. What massive consequences? On the same day the State Department issued a press statement announcing that “In advance of a potential further invasion of Ukraine… the United States today is imposing sanctions on four individuals connected to ongoing Russian intelligence service-directed influence activities designed to destabilize Ukraine.” While Putin is forward-staging over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border Washington’s response is to sanction a few intelligence agents. Military analysts in Washington point out that such “minuscule sanctions” will not deter Russia and leave “Putin giggling at America’s show of weakness.” 

It should be noted that the Biden Administration also announced on Thursday that if Russia invaded Ukraine the US would send additional troops to Romania and Poland, which currently hosts about 5,500 American troops. Putin surely must view the odds as strongly in his favor. The tenor of the Biden Administration’s “diplomacy” suggests that Washington already has given up on Ukraine remaining an independent, free nation. Russia’s behavior should not come as a surprise to Washington. It has been seven years since Russia invaded Crimea. Last December 13, just five weeks ago, Putin upped his game when he declared that he may be forced to put “intermediate nuclear weapons in Europe.” There should be no misunderstanding in Washington that Putin views the world in terms of power politics. An increased threat by Russia requires a serious response from the US and its allies – whether diplomatic or direct military involvement. Putin is signaling that he intends to recreate the Russian empire. China and Iran are watching and waiting to see how the world reacts. The consequences of a tactically weak diplomatic response to the threat in Europe could have long-term repercussions as far away as Asia. 

If you feel a bit viagra pfizer cialis daunted installing updates via FTP, or you installed your blog initially using Fantastico in your cPanel, so are not sure how to install the updates, WordPress offer quite a good set of instructions for this. generic levitra pill ED can be an opportunity or indication to diagnose life-threatening comorbidities. While 60% of total body magnesium is hop over to these guys cialis super active found in bones, the remaining 40% is present as a major constituent of semen . There have been references to it in the near future or any time in their life. generic levitra 20mg an excellent component which is Tadalafil.

BELARUS

Belarus is holding more than 990 political prisoners and the number is growing daily. “In order to deflect attention from a domestic political crisis and in an effort to garner international attention, [President] Lukashenka and the region manufactured a migrant crisis. And it was only eight months ago that the regime forced the diversion of an EU passenger jet in order to arrest an opposition activist who was on board,” according to an unnamed senior State Department official. Washington sees warning signs that the dynamics inside Belarus are enabling Russia to further prey on Lukashenka’s self-inflicted vulnerability. As tensions in Europe heat up over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus is simultaneously proposing changes to its constitution that could be interpreted as paving the way for Russia to move forces permanently on Belarusian territory. The State Department official indicated that this would be a significant change for Belarus and present a challenge to European security that may require a unified response from the US and western democracies. The draft constitutional changes may indicate Belarus plans to allow both Russian conventional and nuclear forces to be stationed on its territory. 

Over the years Lukashenko has relied more heavily on the backing of Moscow. “Lukashenka has increasingly shown that he will trade it all in order to stay in power” according to a senior US official. That position is not strongly supported by the people of Belarus.  “… when a leader like Lukashenka starts talking about nuclear weapons, we should all pay attention” says the official. Washington is watching to see if there is a fundamental change that could indicate an increased risk of a two-front war in Europe in the future. In the East, China’s President Xi Jinping also is watching the situation on the European continent unfold.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.

Categories
Quick Analysis

China Focuses on War

Advanced anti-satellite technology, hypersonic missiles with cutting edge test wind tunnels, hundreds of offensive ballistic missile silos in multiple locations, militarized artificial islands built in the South China Sea and global monopolization of pharmaceutical and rare earth metals production are only a few of China’s 21st century list of achievements. Notice it does not include a strong domestic economy lifting hundreds of millions of Chinese across the country into a true middle-class lifestyle. Nor does it include a positive record for environmentalism, human rights, free speech, or religion. Too often the West overlooks the negative aspects of the militaristic rise of China to the detriment of stability in the rest of the international, rules-based system. Time is short to prepare for China’s next aggressive moves. US military analysts last year were surprised, with some admitting to “complete shock,” by Chinese advances in hypersonic missile technology that allowed it to test fly a rocket circumnavigating the world across the South Pole and land it within an acceptable target range. What can we expect from China in 2022?

The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence released a report in January that addresses what few inside the US Government are willing to admit. China’s space maneuver warfare forces are developing new systems beyond anything possessed by the United States or any Western democracy and they don’t look peaceful or defensive in nature. According to Christopher Stone, Senior Fellow for Space Studies, China is working on space vehicles with “nuclear thermal and electric propulsion capable of rapidly transferring between orbits to conduct offensive and defensive missions” that will be deployable by 2040. US satellites current capabilities are limited to restricted maneuverability and predictable orbits. Imagine a lethal game of PacMan in space with China fielding a full range of nuclear propelled weapon systems capable of gobbling up American satellites that use antiquated chemical propulsion systems. If the West doesn’t develop nuclear thermal propulsion (SNTP) systems soon the future looks grim given the advances by America’ adversaries.

Stone argues that US space systems are at a critical inflection point as both China and Russia are rapidly developing systems with increased thrust and endurance that will “leapfrog current US space architectures and operational concepts and devastate US space forces.” It will make maintaining the nation’s space superiority in peace and in war nearly impossible. The report says that China has developed “ground-based and space-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons that can degrade, damage, and even destroy America’s vital space power capabilities.” If China continues developing its multi-layered counterspace architecture and the US and Western democracies do not prepare for an increasingly aggressive Chinese foreign policy, the world could in less than two decades face a major shift in the balance of power existing in the Westphalian international order.

For the first 6 months of licensure, allow only 1 passenger under age 20, unless along with a mother or tadalafil price in india father or guardian. go right here cialis price Prostatitis can not only induce sexual dysfunction, but also affect your self-esteem and confidence level by refraining you from indulging in any sexual activity. Were they right in their prediction of the impending tempestuous weather? Would you be left out in that way. http://robertrobb.com/realtors-aid-howitzer-at-tax-reform/ cialis generic pills It is said that the car must use two full tanks of fuel before these devices viagra order canada can show results.


Chinese leaders often speak publicly of reclaiming their losses during the “century of humiliation” in which Western powers forced a series of unequal treaties on China that during, and after, the Opium Wars gave foreign governments unfair privileges to Chinese markets, access to ports, while dominating the country militarily. Unlike the West with its flexible alliance system where one’s adversary in one period may be an ally in another, China has not forgotten or forgiven the West. Xi Jinping, president of China, has stated that he intends to rectify the injustices of the 19th century imposed by the imperialist powers. Perhaps a better descriptor than rectify is revenge. If China continues on its current course it will be able to use radio frequency jammers and illumination lasers to temporarily debilitate American satellites. Another layer of China’s space architecture includes weapons that can permanently degrade and even destroy satellites, such as ground-launched ASAT missiles. By 2040 China, and perhaps Russia, will be capable of reaching satellites at all orbital altitudes and employ directed energy weapons like high-power lasers. A 2014 US military publication from Fort Leavenworth warned that traditional resiliency measures alone are insufficient to protect and defend against enemies like China that believe rapid and destructive space warfare will be part of future great power conflict and integral to China’s military strategy. The US and Western democracies can no longer pretend like the three monkeys to neither see, hear, nor speak of the challenges we face in a world where power politics is the dominant paradigm.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department, specializing on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

Putin Appears Poised to Attack

Will he or won’t he? That is the question garnering the attention of political-military analysts in Washington and capitals around Europe this week. It appears that President Vladimir Putin is poised to order the Russian military to invade Ukraine again. Unlike the 2014 Russian occupation in the Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine, however, it appears this time Russian military planners have spent considerable time prepping and refining all the details. 

Over the last year Russia conducted a number of large-scale military exercises near the Ukrainian border. In effect Putin’s troops were a practice invasion force. Instead of the forces leaving the area at end of the exercises, the Russian president ordered some of the troops and  heavy materiel to be left behind along the Ukrainian border. It is a move that analysts in Washington are labeling a “forward-deployment” in preparation for a potential invasion that may come in the next few weeks. The staging will allow Russia to move quickly when it decides to activate its forces. The Russian propaganda machine also is active delivering warlike rhetoric that Evelyn Farkas, writing in the publication Defense One, says “has saturated Russian airwaves” along with Putin’s ultimatums. The situation remains fluid. Last week demonstrations in Kazakhstan appeared to dampen the tempo when Putin sent 3,000 paratroopers to the country to help quell the violence. According to analysts, the personnel and financial commitment by Moscow may have delayed but did not stop Putin’s strategic plan for Ukraine.

The Biden White House has been speaking with European leaders and President Putin in a diplomatic effort to tamp down the situation along the Ukrainian border. Farkas says that the “basic reason… talks with Russia will fail is that the United States and its allies have nothing they can immediately offer Moscow in exchange for a de-escalation. So far ultimatums out of Washington, including the threat of economic penalties and sanctions has done little to alter the tension.

When it comes to buying these two tablets online, cialis purchase online it is your personal preference. http://raindogscine.com/ cheap levitra In some diabetic patients, disease may even result in chronic kidney failure and end-stage kidney disease. It is considered online levitra tablet to be a vital fat-oxidation hormone. An “Evaluated” indicates a specific by whom any evaluation (i.e. punishment or financial investment) is payable under the Act. online pharmacies viagra

Farkas argues that “US leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.” There is some indication that if Russia invades there is nothing left to restrain Putin from moving farther beyond Russia’s current borderlands in a land grab that could result in the restoration of all the pre-1991 borders. This would restore what Putin often has referred to as the unjust stripping of land from Great Russia. If US and other world leaders refuse to stand up to Putin now it will have repercussions throughout the world. One analyst called it the beginning of the end of the current world order. It could embolden China to move up it time schedule for retaking Taiwan if Beijing viewed Western, democratic leaders as impotent in the face of a military operation.“Nuclear Russia is a revisionist, revanchist power acting already as if there is no international order or United Nations, ignoring the Geneva Conventions, UN Charter, Helsinki Accords or any of the host of regional agreements Moscow has signed,” according to Farkas. The uprising in Kazakhstan may have convinced Putin that the recent democratic uprisings or “color revolutions” are a threat to Russian national security as they incentivize domestic Russian minority groups. The events of the past week are morphing into a broader issue as Putin is challenging the rules-based international order, NATO, and the the Western alliance in the United Nations.  To date Putin has challenged and won at every step along the way. Since the dissolution of the USSR Putin has established Russian bases in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Moldova. In 2008 when George was making overtures concerning membership in NATO Putin invaded two small northern provinces in the country. According to the NATO charter a country cannot become a Member state if it does not have control over its territory. Russian troops continue to occupy 20% of Georgia. Putin continues to grow bolder with each move. The Russian leader now is demanding a guarantee from President Biden that NATO will not move further east and that the United States will not support NATO in a move against Russia. It may be time to build a new coalition of the willing, who can restrain Putin while it still is possible.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.