Will Russia Invade? – USA Gov Policy

Russia’s military appears ready to move into Ukraine. Will Vladimir Putin decide to give the order to deploy? No modern nation-state can be fully certain of another’s intended actions. Security treaties can be broken, and defensive weapons can be employed offensively. Vladimir Putin recognizes this principle of power politics and is taking full advantage of the chaos found in the anarchic conditions of the international environment. Over the last year he has cleverly broadcast his moves while western democratic leaders remain frozen in place watching, and anticipating, the Russian leader’s next moves. No one but Putin, however, knows his long-term intentions regarding Ukraine and the remainder of the former Soviet bloc states.

To date diplomacy has not resolved this latest European security crisis. Putin continues to defy the norms of the international rules-based system that has maintained relative stability in the global community. He ignores the censure of international institutions intent on curbing Russia’s bad behavior. Today the world is left guessing what Putin might do while simultaneously looking for clues to understand how far he could go should he decide to deploy his military.

Some western analysts suggest that Putin has no intention of conducting an aggressive and expensive war but simply is bartering for a deal with the West. The critical point is that no one knows for sure. The movement of Russia’s armed forces to the Ukrainian border could be a red herring bargaining maneuver in a complex power scheme being played out on a diplomatic chess board. Several military analysts in Washington, however, see Putin’s public statements as foreshadowing a larger kinetic military operation in which Russia seizes control of the government of Ukraine and soon after that of Belarus and Georgia. The West may not know the full answer until the play is called in hindsight.

Throughout the past year Putin has openly thwarted attempts to reduce tensions along his country’s borderlands. He has ignored assurances from NATO Member states that the organization is not seeking to incorporate Eastern Europe into the alliance. In 2022 he is moving forward with a new large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercise from February 10-20. “Soyuznaya Reshimost,” or “Allied Resolve” in English, “forms a critical dimension in Moscow’s war planning against Ukraine,’ according to the Roger McDermott of the Jamestown Foundation. It will be the largest deployment of Russian armed forces since 1991. He notes that for the first time the forces are from Russia’s Eastern Military District. Writing for Jamestown he points out “Their presence there effectively expands the encirclement of Ukraine and sends a strategic message to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to stay out of the coming conflict.” The Russian Defense Ministry said an exercise agreement with Belarus was signed at the presidential level between Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition to its strategic timing, it will take place closer to the Polish and Ukraine border areas than in the past. Although Minsk has moved politically closer to Moscow recently, analysts point out that there are political forces inside Belarus who are wary of Russia regaining too much control over the political apparatus of the Belarusian state. The future of Ukraine and Belarus are at risk.

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Putin appears prepared to continue conducting his so-called “military exercises” in 2022, forward deploying troops and materiel. The Russia intelligence services, with their long expertise in disinformation and propaganda campaigns, are aiding the effort. They have been working overtime to ensure the potential invasion of Ukraine remains front page news while blaming others, in advance, for precipitating actions that could require a Russian military response. Moscow has effectively announced each strategic step publicly over the last year. Some analysts in Washington say this makes Putin an even greater danger to Eastern Europe and the West. While he has yet to surpass a threshold requiring NATO to take retaliatory action against Russia, he is drawing the ire of much of Europe with Western leaders offering various forms of military support to Ukraine. “The [Russian] force mix deployed to Belarus for the large-scale military exercise serves a number of simultaneous roles. It offers additional hypothetical strike options into Ukraine, including an attack on Kyiv, deters any possible NATO response, and increases pressure on the Alliance’s eastern flank,” says McDermott. Belarus may serve as one of the Russian launch locations for an invasion of Ukraine. It also could result in Putin’s forces never leaving the nation and, instead, Russia would effectively govern the territory as a puppet state.

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea was put together quickly, according to American intelligence analysts. This time Putin is moving slowly in plain sight of the Western world. It is a bold step that could mean a return to a more fragmented Europe if Putin seizes multiple European states either through military force or by destroying the underpinnings of sovereignty in places like Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia…..

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay