Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

RUSSIA ON THE BRINK OF WAR?

Neorealism is the dominant paradigm academia uses when analyzing how states compete using hard power to maximize their national security. It is the way political leaders have operated since before the Peloponnesian Wars in 431 BC. Vladimir Putin understands history and the efficacy of using Russian military power, long-term strategies, and short-term tactics to achieve his end goals. Unlike the Russian leader, however, the historical lessons from over 2,000 years of war appear lost on the Biden Administration this week as it continues to insist diplomacy remains the soslutin to the Russian military threat to the sovereign nation-state of Ukraine.

While political discourse is preferred, less costly in human and materiel costs, and can resolve many tense situations, that time has past. Washington appears ready to “cede the battlefield” and accept that Putin will invade the independent country of Ukraine. President Biden on Thursday confirmed the US commitment to Kiev with the State Department announcing the US will “impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia” if there is conflict. What massive consequences? On the same day the State Department issued a press statement announcing that “In advance of a potential further invasion of Ukraine… the United States today is imposing sanctions on four individuals connected to ongoing Russian intelligence service-directed influence activities designed to destabilize Ukraine.” While Putin is forward-staging over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border Washington’s response is to sanction a few intelligence agents. Military analysts in Washington point out that such “minuscule sanctions” will not deter Russia and leave “Putin giggling at America’s show of weakness.”

It should be noted that the Biden Administration also announced on Thursday that if Russia invaded Ukraine the US would send additional troops to Romania and Poland, which currently hosts about 5,500 American troops. Putin surely must view the odds as strongly in his favor. The tenor of the Biden Administration’s “diplomacy” suggests that Washington already has given up on Ukraine remaining an independent, free nation. Russia’s behavior should not come as a surprise to Washington. It has been seven years since Russia invaded Crimea. Last December 13, just five weeks ago, Putin upped his game when he declared that he may be forced to put “intermediate nuclear weapons in Europe.” There should be no misunderstanding in Washington that Putin views the world in terms of power politics. An increased threat by Russia requires a serious response from the US and its allies – whether diplomatic or direct military involvement. Putin is signaling that he intends to recreate the Russian empire. China and Iran are watching and waiting to see how the world reacts. The consequences of a tactically weak diplomatic response to the threat in Europe could have long-term repercussions as far away as Asia.

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BELARUS

Belarus is holding more than 990 political prisoners and the number is growing daily. “In order to deflect attention from a domestic political crisis and in an effort to garner international attention, [President] Lukashenka and the region manufactured a migrant crisis. And it was only eight months ago that the regime forced the diversion of an EU passenger jet in order to arrest an opposition activist who was on board,” according to an unnamed senior State Department official. Washington sees warning signs that the dynamics inside Belarus are enabling Russia to further prey on Lukashenka’s self-inflicted vulnerability. As tensions in Europe heat up over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus is simultaneously proposing changes to its constitution that could be interpreted as paving the way for Russia to move forces permanently on Belarusian territory. The State Department official indicated that this would be a significant change for Belarus and present a challenge to European security that may require a unified response from the US and western democracies. The draft constitutional changes may indicate Belarus plans to allow both Russian conventional and nuclear forces to be stationed on its territory.

Over the years Lukashenko has relied more heavily on the backing of Moscow. “Lukashenka has increasingly shown that he will trade it all in order to stay in power” according to a senior US official. That position is not strongly supported by the people of Belarus. “… when a leader like Lukashenka starts talking about nuclear weapons, we should all pay attention” says the official. Washington is watching to see if there is a fundamental change that could indicate an increased risk of a two-front war in Europe in the future. In the East, China’s President Xi Jinping also is watching the situation on the European continent unfold.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay