China Threatens U.S. – USA Gov Policy

Foreign Minister Wang Yi threatened the United States on Thursday saying that despite talks with US officials over the last couple of months, Washington faces “new shocks” from Beijing since the US is not following the directions discussed in the meetings. During a time when Russo-Chinese relations are growing closer, the Biden Administration is under growing pressure to pay more attention to, and address, its increasingly tense bilateral relationship with China. Wang Yi declared this week that the US is “playing with fire” over Taiwan and demanded President Biden stop “interfering with the Beijing Winter Olympics.”

The “China watchers” in the US examine the formal and informal statements and actions of the CCP and senior leadership in China. In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, there are similarly tasked foreign intelligence analysts dissecting every move made by President Biden. While all eyes are on Russia and the prospect of an invasion of Ukraine, Chinese political analysts are preparing reports for President Xi Jinping that suggest “he is free to move aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to one China watcher. How dangerous is an emboldened China?

Beijing is watching closely how the Biden Administration is responding to the Russian threat and well as what actions Washington is not taking to curb Chinese behavior in the Pacific. If the Biden Administration exhibits a lack of political willpower to stand up to Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks, Xi may assume there also is little risk that Washington will interfere in any offensive moves China makes in the Indo-Pacific. Worse yet, if the Biden Administration’s Russian policy is assessed as very weak Xi could view it as a clear signal that the time is close for Beijing to make a military move against Taiwan or other foreign interests in the area without risk of a direct conflict with the United States.

For months now the US Congress has been plagued by delays and stalled negotiations over legislation meant to increase US competitiveness with China. “The nearly 3,000-page bill is a hodgepodge of stalled spending on US science and technology, including $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and $45 billion to shore up US supply chains” according to the Washington Times’ Joseph Clark.

Rep. Michael T. McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee told Clark that “Rather than allowing those talks to play out, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats have decided to torpedo the chance of a bipartisan, bicameral bill to confront the generational threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party.” The haggling is entering it seventh month on Capitol Hill with the two major parties split over how to handle China.

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Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership know that of the 238 bills proposed over the last year to reduce US reliance on Chinese made goods, address Beijing’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, and reinforce the American commitment to Taiwan nothing of import has made it to the President’s desk for his signature.

In Asia there is a worsening state of freedom in Hong Kong and Taiwan is threatened regularly by Chinese fighter jets and naval ships piercing its territorial boundaries. Xi appears to move without constraint by democratic states in the region. The PLA is claiming most of the South China Sea for China, despite international rulings against China. Unchecked China has the potential to wreak havoc in Asia in the coming months while the US sits idled by Putin’s military building near Ukraine and a lack of Congressional action. China’s growing power and ambition remains the greater long-term threat to democracies around the world. This year may mark a major shift in the balance of power in the world if the Biden Administration can’t come up with a solid, effective China policy.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and was stationed in China.

Photo: “The Chinese military is fully prepared for any external provocation,” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense.”

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay