Foreign policy Update June 26

VENEZUELA

On Thursday Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced that the United States is ready to provide more than $20 million in initial humanitarian assistance to the people of Venezuela. The country is experiencing severe food and medicine shortages due to the country’s political and economic crisis caused by the illegitimate Maduro regime.

In a Media Note, the State Department Spokesperson stated that: “Venezuela’s National Assembly has stressed the need for immediate international humanitarian assistance. In response, the United States is ready to provide emergency aid throughout Venezuela to help meet the increasingly urgent humanitarian needs of Venezuelans affected by this crisis.”

As a country the United States provides more humanitarian and foreign aid than any other nation. Venezuela currently receives robust support as the growing impacts of Maduro’s crisis spill into neighboring countries. In the last fiscal year the U.S. “has provided more than $140 million in humanitarian and development assistance to support affected countries’ emergency efforts and build their long-term capacity to host the more than three million people who have fled repression and chaos in Venezuela since 2014.”

The United States has pledge to stand with the Venezuelan people and has repeatedly called upon authorities there to immediately implement the critical economic and political reforms necessary to end the hyperinflation, supply shortages, and corruption which created the crisis in the once-prosperous nation.

The United States does not recognize the previous Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela. Therefore, Washington is not complying with the former president’s order to break diplomatic relations with the US. According to a US State Department announcement, Washington welcomes “interim President Guaido’s directive to all diplomatic missions in Venezuela that Venezuela intends to maintain diplomatic relations with all countries.

NORTH KOREA

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Not long ago, President Trump met directly with North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un to begin a dialogue on denuclearizing that country. The process is ongoing behind-the-scenes and continues publicly with the recent announcement that President Trump will participate in another meeting with the North Korean leader late in February. Secretary Pompeo, in response to questions about a new “top-secret” missile base in that country said that the US intelligence community is aware of what is taking place in North Korea.

The Secretary pointed out that “with respect to the negotiations, President Trump and I have both… from the very beginning, from the first time I went to North Korea as the CIA director, understand that this is going to be a process that is going to take some time. First step: stopping their testing of their missile program. Second step: stopping their nuclear tests. Those still continue. There’s been real progress made.”

CHINA

China is feeling the impact of American sanctions and experiencing a severe slowdown in its economy. In a recent interview with Laura Ingraham, Secretary Pompeo discussed US demands for fair and reciprocal trade. He pointed out that the United States wants our companies to be able to sell their goods into China without the risk that their intellectual property will be stolen or that they’ll be forced to deliver their technology to the Chinese Government.

The Secretary added that “President Trump has been… pretty clear…. We want a set of arrangements that allow American workers to have the same opportunity that Chinese workers have.” Secretary Pompeo said that progress is being made and he is optimistic USTR Ambassador Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and the rest of the trade team will continue to work toward an outcome consistent with what the President has been demanding for months.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russian-Belarus Preparations for an Attack on the West

While Russia is celebrating May Day at home this week, it is also growing closer to breaching the threshold triggering a nuclear event in Western Europe. Military analysts in Washington consider the recent deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a political sign designed to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost flank. Alexander Taranov, of the Jamestown Foundation calls it “practical preparation for nuclear escalation.” Last week the Kremlin publicly repeated its threat of nuclear war against the West. It immediately followed the US Congress’ vote to provide $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Up for debate is whether Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads in Belarus is short-term preparation for their operational use. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly declared that increasing aid to Ukraine increases the threat of a direct military clash. From Moscow’s perspective, he points out, Ukraine is backed by three nuclear states, including the US, UK, and France. He uses it to justify the Kremlin’s moves in Belarus as Russia considers the situation a serious strategic risk. The nuclear environment in Europe is moving beyond simple rhetoric this spring. Russian-Belarus preparations for an attack on the West include war gaming a simulated nuclear event in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The operating assumption for the games is that the West is “morally too weak to respond with retaliatory strikes,” according to Taranov. The representative for national defense of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile’s United Transitional Cabinet and former commander of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (Brest), Valery Sahashchyk, says that the militaries are war-gaming and preparing for an attack on Lithuania. Last week the publication RIA Novosti suggested that the Kremlin may take matters into its own hands and that Russia is fighting a “long war” against the collective West and Ukraine. Just over a month ago, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) confirmed the establishment of a nuclear warhead storage facility near Asipovichy, Belarus, where, according to Taranov, the 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base is located. The 465th Missile Brigade is almost co-located and supplied with Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical missile (RMB) systems that are also known as TNW carriers. Pre-deploying tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) raises the potential that Russia could choose to use them should the war in Ukraine go badly this summer. Western powers are divided on how to view the Russian nuclear moves. Some military planners are arguing that the West needs to be prepared, despite the possibility that Putin is simply posturing and not preparing for war. Other Western commentators suggest it is only posturing since prior to the recent nuclear deployment in Belarus, Russia already had the capability to launch a strike in Eastern Europe using its modernized nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. Taranov points out that the Belarusian nuclear site is only modernized with added perimeter security and an access point and that “No underground bunker-type fortifications, designed for the long-term storage of TNWs… were built on the Belarusian base’s territory. Instead, the nuclear warheads were placed in one of the arsenals of the ammunition base, which also stores operational-tactical missiles for the Iskander-M system.” He says this co-location with their launch vehicles is an indication that a repair and maintenance base has been organized there to support and prepare the TNWs for operational use. Personnel on the site are likely tasked with fitting the nuclear warheads on the missiles. What makes this more concerning is that during a peacetime environment, the standard Russian practice is to store TNWs in a special bunker-type fortified facility while RMBs typically are located off base. Military procedures in the past called for moving TNWs off base to the TNW carrier and delivery vehicle site only after receiving an order or special command from: 1) the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, 2) the Minister of Defense, and 3) the Chief of the Russian General staff. Co-positioning marks a change in standard operating procedures that indicates the weapons are, essentially, in field-ready conditions. This reduces the time to place the nuclear warheads on the missiles. This “indicates preparation for operational use,” according to Taranov. There are additional signs that Putin is prepping for an escalation in the Ukrainian conflict. The Polish government says Russian Aerospace Forces are using Belarusian-based Kh-55 nuclear-capable cruise missiles with imitators of nuclear warheads against targets in Poland and Ukraine. This points to Russia’s practicing for at minimum of a tactical nuclear strike. The summer months may become very active in Europe if Putin sees it as an opportune time to act while the US is in the middle of a presidential election. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2) ICBM. Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Vitaly V. Kuzmin