The Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea may not sound familiar to many people in the US, but they could end up ground zero in the new Cold War brewing with China. Last week US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Japanese officials, a day before he held discussions in Alaska with representatives from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While in Tokyo, Blinken reaffirmed the US security commitment to Japan, including its Senkaku Islands.
China has been increasingly belligerent toward the island chain over the last decade despite America’s explicit reassurance by President Obama in 2014 that the islands are part of the US security guarantee to Japan under Article V of our security treaty. The US and Japan “remain opposed to any unilateral action that seeks to change the status quo or to undermine Japan’s administration of these islands,” according to US officials. Despite Chinese propaganda claiming otherwise, the islands have been under Japanese control most of the time since the late 19th century. After WWII ended the US held the islands until they were returned to Japan in the 1970’s.
Mostly uninhabited or dotted with flourishing fishing villages, the islands have taken on a new significance as advanced undersea mining technology may be able to extract valuable oil reserves in the area. The Jamestown Foundation estimates that China currently smuggles in up to 40 million liters of oil daily from Iran. The Daqing oilfields in northeast China produce low quality oil and are almost out at a time when President Xi Jinping is calling for increased domestic manufacturing during the 100th anniversary celebration. China needs more petroleum resources to grow its domestic economy. The Senkaku are one potential answer. They have the added benefit of connecting the East China Sea to other sea lanes making them a prime target for China’s expansionist maritime plans.
“The United States and Japan acknowledged that China’s behavior, where inconsistent with the existing international order, presents political, economic, military, and technological challenges to the Alliance and to the international community,” according to the American statement released recently by the State Department. Washington and Tokyo are committed to maintaining the international rules-based international system that has kept the region stable in recent decades. Last year the Japanese Ministry of Defense outlined, in a detailed White Paper, the extent of Chinese incursions in waters surrounding the islands and throughout the Japanese archipelago.
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As recent Chinese claims of sovereignty intensify, along with increasingly provocative naval operations around the island chain, the likelihood of a maritime accident or other conflict also increases. Beijing appears ready to make this the new norm in 2021. “China relentlessly continues in its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by coercion in the sea area around the Senkaku Islands,” according to Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fellow and senior editor of Long War Journal. In what is also becoming more common, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian accused Japan of “acting as a strategic vassal of the United States, going so far as to break faith, harm relations with China, invite the wolf into the house, and betray the collective interests of the whole region.” The CCCP will celebrate its 100th anniversary next July. The world already is witnessing China’s increasingly confident aggressive moves throughout the region. The Sekaku appear to be the latest hot button item on China’s list. Quite possibly it could become the site when the new Cold War turns hot.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.
Illustration: Several target aircraft take off successively from the amphibious dock landing ship Wuzhishan (Hull 987) during the actual combat training in late February, 2021. The amphibious dock landing ship is attached to a naval landing ship flotilla under the PLA Southern Theater Command. The flotilla organized its vessels to conduct main gun firing, close-in weapon system firing, landing craft air-cushion formation maneuver in late February, 2021. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Qiao Chenxi)