Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Europe to participate in discussions at NATO headquarters in Brussels. In a press conference held there he was asked about American interests and values that countries share as participants in the rules-based international order. The Secretary responded that “the challenge is to make sure that we uphold that order. And so when any country, whether it’s China or anyone else, takes actions that undermine it when they’re not playing by the rules, we have an obligation to stand up and say you need to.” Blinken pointed out that the United States accounts for about 25% of the world’s GDP and that when the country is working with its allies and partners is quickly adds to 40%-60% of world GDP. He said that percentage is “a little bit harder for Beijing to ignore.”

RUSSIA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Beijing in what appeared to be a united stance against the EU and US position on Russian troops in the East and in the Baltic countries. Secretary Blinken said those regions were discussed at the NATO meetings and of great concern to Washington given some of Russia’s recent aggressive actions. The Secretary added that while Russia’s new weapon systems under development also are a concern to America’s allies and partners, collectively they recognize that there “may be areas where, out of mutual interest, we can still work together… the United States extended with Russia the New START agreement for five years. There are other areas in this matter of strategic stability – arms control – where we may find ways to work together, but that is not going to stop us from standing up strongly in a united way with our allies and partners when Russia commits aggressive acts.”

NATO

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Secretary Blinken spoke to NATO Members in Brussels Belgium this week and recommitted America to its alliances and to the shared values that sustain them. Second, he said, the United States must modernize its alliances. “That begins with improving our military capabilities and readiness, to ensure that we maintain a strong and credible military deterrent… we must ensure that our strategic nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective, particularly in light of Russia’s modernization.” Blinken also said that the US will take steps to reduce further the role of US nuclear weapons. It appears the US will now rely more on international institutions. Blinken said the US must confront its own shortcomings and not pretend they don’t exist.

Blinken also pointed out the the United States must expand its ability to address transnational threats – especially climate change and pandemics like COVID-19. He said: “These challenges are so vast – and the measures needed to address them so far-reaching – that tackling them must be integrated into virtually everything we do and coordinated across a wide array of partners.” The third challenge he mentioned was that the US must weave together broader coalitions of allies and partners to address threats in the economic, technological, and informational realms. He called for a deepening of NATO-EU cooperation and greater collaboration on issues including cybersecurity, energy security, health security, and safeguarding critical infrastructure.

GERMANY

Although Germany is among the US’s closest allies, Secretary Blinken said Washington has “a real disagreement on Nord Stream 2 – that’s not a secret to anyone.” He added that the US is not going to let that stand in the way of the work on issues that are of direct concern to the citizens of the US and Germany. The pipeline exposes the Ukraine and Central Europe to Russian manipulation and coercion, and goes against Europe’s own stated energy security goals. Blinken said the US will continue to monitor activity to complete or certify the pipeline, and if that activity takes place, Washington will make a determination on the applicability of sanctions.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay