NATO Expands Defense Spending, Criticizes Russia, Part 2

This month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presented the NATOs Annual Report. We continue our review by presenting excerpts presenting the Alliance’s views on Russia, and nuclear deterrence.

Russia

Relations with Russia NATO’s policy towards Russia remains consistent: defence and dialogue.

After the Cold War, NATO and Russia were striving towards a strategic partnership. However, after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, all practical cooperation was suspended.

At the same time, however, NATO maintains political dialogue and military-to-military lines of communications with Russia. Efforts to reduce risk and increase transparency are also ongoing. At the Warsaw Summit, NATO leaders reaffirmed that the nature of the Alliance’s relations with Russia will be contingent on a clear, constructive change in Russia’s actions – one that demonstrates compliance with international law and its international obligations and responsibilities.

The Alliance maintains a firm position, based on a dual-track approach of strong deterrence and defence complemented by a periodic, focused and meaningful dialogue. That dialogue is carried out on the basis of reciprocity in the NATO-Russia Council. This is important to avoid misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation, as well as to increase transparency and predictability.

In 2017, the NATO-Russia Council met three times – in March, July and October. At each meeting, the Council discussed the conflict in and around Ukraine, including the need for the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements, issues relating to military activities, transparency and risk reduction, as well as the security situation in Afghanistan and the regional terrorist threat.

NATO continued to maintain a dialogue with Russia on air safety in the Baltic Sea region. In light of the increased air activity in the Baltic Sea region in recent years, it has become increasingly important to boost predictability and transparency in order to prevent incidents and accidents, and avoid unintended escalation. In 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Baltic Sea Project Team briefed the NATO-Russia Council on this important topic. Subsequently, a Finnish-led Expert Group on Baltic Sea Air Safety was established to build on the work of the Baltic Sea Project Team. The group – with the participation of Allied and partner countries from the region, Russia and NATO, inter alia – developed recommendations and guidance on the handling and resolution of air encounters between all aircraft, both civilian and military, in peacetime. Supported by the Allies, these recommendations were published by the International Civil Aviation Organization in December 2017.

In 2017, the NATO-Russia Council began to exchange advanced reciprocal briefings on upcoming exercises. This mutual exchange has the potential to contribute towards greater predictability and risk reduction in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, these voluntary briefings cannot replace mandatory transparency under the Vienna Document.

The Secretary General met with the Russian Foreign Minister in February, May and September. The Deputy Secretary General maintained regular contact with the Russian Ambassador to NATO throughout the year, as well as with other Russian officials. NATO’s military leaders have also continued to communicate directly with their Russian counterparts.
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Nuclear Deterence

Nuclear deterrence has made a major contribution to peace and stability in Europe and beyond for more than 70 years, and has been at the heart of NATO’s posture. At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, Allies recognised the importance of nuclear deterrence as a key element of the Allied deterrence posture, for the specific purpose of preserving peace, preventing coercion, and deterring aggression. As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance.

At the same time, the Alliance is committed to seeking the conditions necessary for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in a step-by-step and verifiable manner.

NATO is also concerned about the threat of nuclear proliferation and it has taken a firm stand in condemning the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea for carrying out nuclear and missile tests. North Korea’s destabilising behaviour poses a threat to international peace and security and the Alliance has called on North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons and nuclear and ballistic missile programmes in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner. NATO also urges the country to comply with its international obligations and recommit to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Allied commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains unwavering. The Treaty is the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation and safeguards regime and the basis for global disarmament efforts.

The Alliance also recognises the importance of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty to EuroAtlantic security. The Treaty has contributed to strategic stability and reduced the risk of miscalculation leading to conflict. The Alliance is committed to the preservation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and strongly believes full compliance with this landmark arms control treaty is needed. In December 2017, NATO recognised the United States’ compliance with its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and its commitment to implementing the Treaty. The Alliance also welcomed the continued efforts by the United States to engage Russia to resolve concerns about Russia’s compliance with the Treaty.

NATO photo

Quick Analysis

Russian-Belarus Preparations for an Attack on the West

While Russia is celebrating May Day at home this week, it is also growing closer to breaching the threshold triggering a nuclear event in Western Europe. Military analysts in Washington consider the recent deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a political sign designed to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost flank. Alexander Taranov, of the Jamestown Foundation calls it “practical preparation for nuclear escalation.” Last week the Kremlin publicly repeated its threat of nuclear war against the West. It immediately followed the US Congress’ vote to provide $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Up for debate is whether Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads in Belarus is short-term preparation for their operational use. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly declared that increasing aid to Ukraine increases the threat of a direct military clash. From Moscow’s perspective, he points out, Ukraine is backed by three nuclear states, including the US, UK, and France. He uses it to justify the Kremlin’s moves in Belarus as Russia considers the situation a serious strategic risk. The nuclear environment in Europe is moving beyond simple rhetoric this spring. Russian-Belarus preparations for an attack on the West include war gaming a simulated nuclear event in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The operating assumption for the games is that the West is “morally too weak to respond with retaliatory strikes,” according to Taranov. The representative for national defense of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile’s United Transitional Cabinet and former commander of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (Brest), Valery Sahashchyk, says that the militaries are war-gaming and preparing for an attack on Lithuania. Last week the publication RIA Novosti suggested that the Kremlin may take matters into its own hands and that Russia is fighting a “long war” against the collective West and Ukraine. Just over a month ago, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) confirmed the establishment of a nuclear warhead storage facility near Asipovichy, Belarus, where, according to Taranov, the 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base is located. The 465th Missile Brigade is almost co-located and supplied with Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical missile (RMB) systems that are also known as TNW carriers. Pre-deploying tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) raises the potential that Russia could choose to use them should the war in Ukraine go badly this summer. Western powers are divided on how to view the Russian nuclear moves. Some military planners are arguing that the West needs to be prepared, despite the possibility that Putin is simply posturing and not preparing for war. Other Western commentators suggest it is only posturing since prior to the recent nuclear deployment in Belarus, Russia already had the capability to launch a strike in Eastern Europe using its modernized nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. Taranov points out that the Belarusian nuclear site is only modernized with added perimeter security and an access point and that “No underground bunker-type fortifications, designed for the long-term storage of TNWs… were built on the Belarusian base’s territory. Instead, the nuclear warheads were placed in one of the arsenals of the ammunition base, which also stores operational-tactical missiles for the Iskander-M system.” He says this co-location with their launch vehicles is an indication that a repair and maintenance base has been organized there to support and prepare the TNWs for operational use. Personnel on the site are likely tasked with fitting the nuclear warheads on the missiles. What makes this more concerning is that during a peacetime environment, the standard Russian practice is to store TNWs in a special bunker-type fortified facility while RMBs typically are located off base. Military procedures in the past called for moving TNWs off base to the TNW carrier and delivery vehicle site only after receiving an order or special command from: 1) the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, 2) the Minister of Defense, and 3) the Chief of the Russian General staff. Co-positioning marks a change in standard operating procedures that indicates the weapons are, essentially, in field-ready conditions. This reduces the time to place the nuclear warheads on the missiles. This “indicates preparation for operational use,” according to Taranov. There are additional signs that Putin is prepping for an escalation in the Ukrainian conflict. The Polish government says Russian Aerospace Forces are using Belarusian-based Kh-55 nuclear-capable cruise missiles with imitators of nuclear warheads against targets in Poland and Ukraine. This points to Russia’s practicing for at minimum of a tactical nuclear strike. The summer months may become very active in Europe if Putin sees it as an opportune time to act while the US is in the middle of a presidential election. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2) ICBM. Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Vitaly V. Kuzmin