Defining War – USA Gov Policy

Defining war is more nuanced today than on December 6, 1941, despite attempts by academics and policymakers to create descriptive labels encompassing a definition of modern warfare. Putin declared his February invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation.” The rest of the world identified it as a blatant “undeclared war” with tens of thousands killed in the kinetic conflict and innumerable physical damage done to the sovereign nation’s infrastructure. It is more challenging to recognize and label a country’s aggressive actions overseas that don’t involve kinetic warfare but do injure a foreign state, commercial entities, or a targeted population. Chinese foreign policy and military actions today represent a greater long-term threat to the free world than Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine. The communist regime in Beijing threatens the safety and stability of foreign governments and economies across the globe with, at times, 100% impunity. The CCP, using Huawei as one of its instruments, aggressively targets western regimes and other entities using its advanced technologies.

In response to the Chinese threat this week, the Biden Administration announced it is investigating Huawei’s operations inside the United States. Reuters is reporting that two US individuals with knowledge of the case admitted that Washington has concerns that American “cell towers fitted with its [Huawei’s] gear could capture sensitive information from military bases and missile silos that the company could then transmit to China….”

Due to the confidentiality and sensitive nature of the investigation, notes Reuter, the identity of the investigators remains protected. What is known is that US authorities are concerned that China could obtain sensitive data on military drills and the readiness status of American bases and personnel via Huawei’s equipment used on cell towers in the US. It is an almost invisible national security threat to our country but one that typically falls below the threshold for most definitions of war. Several policy analysts in Washington argue that the breadth of China’s intrusive operations in the US are reaching a critical point and may be preparation for more overt aggressive action in the future.

“The previously unreported probe was opened by the Commerce Department shortly after Joe Biden took office early last year, the sources said, following the implementation of rules to flesh out a May 2019 executive order that gave the agency the investigative authority,” writes AP’s Alexandra Alpers. Eight current and former US officials said the probe reflects lingering national security concerns about the company, she added. The Trump Administration imposed a series of restrictions on Huawei over concerns of espionage involving Chinese military-connected operations aimed at the United States. The current probe by the Commerce Department, if it determines Huawei poses a national security threat, could extend beyond existing restrictions imposed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the US telecoms regulator.

The Trump Administration created encompassing rules permitting the Commerce Department to ban potentially all US transactions with Huawei. If a telecom carrier still relies on Huawei technology it could be forced to remove it or face fines or other penalties, according to the Reuters report. In a 2020 speech FBI Director Christopher Wray said: “If Chinese companies like Huawei are given unfettered access to our telecommunications infrastructure, they could collect any of your information that traverses their devices or networks.” The danger level increases dramatically when Huawei’s equipment is located next to a US military installation. Capturing data enables China to make predictions about US capabilities, readiness levels, and other vital national security-related information. Under Chinese law Huawei is required to spy for the government and must turn over whatever information it collects when Beijing demands it. The civilian-military fusion program in China virtually eliminates any line dividing the private and public sectors. “If you can stick a receiver on a [cellphone] tower, you can collect signals and that means you can get intelligence. No intelligence agency would pass an opportunity like that,” said Jim Lewis, a technology and cybersecurity expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington D.C.-based think tank,” Alper writes.

The looming question that remains unanswered concerns an answer to this question. Is this a form of warfare or a prelude to a kinetic war? China’s government plans for the long-term. In some cases, it is generational. By 2030, China estimates it will operate a fully-modernized military. The US is only in recent years taking action to protect against non-kinetic actions by China. There remains no consensus in Washington concerning the definition of an act of war. What is known is that the United States today is vulnerable to technology-based attacks on our infrastructure by the communist regime.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay