China’s Nigerian Plans – USA Gov Policy

Nigeria is in the news for “all the wrong reasons” lately, according to several military analysts in Washington. The country, located on the west coast of Africa, is one of China’s closest trading partners and a strong ally. Earlier this month it welcomed a megaship registered in the People’s Republic of China at its new Lekki Port. It is the first vessel ever to berth at the modern, deep-water facility. It gives rise to questions about the long-term role of China’s naval forces in western Africa. Previously analysts assumed that other states, such as Equatorial Guinea, might one day host Chinese naval vessels. The China connection at the port facility is only one of many Beijing maintains in Nigeria.

In 2010 China’s Harbor Engineering, with funding primarily from the China Development Bank and a few smaller local African partners, began work on the project. As late as last year western security analysts presumed China would seek a permanent naval presence on the west coast, most likely at the port in Equatorial Guinea. It looks like the situation may be evolving or, perhaps, the US miscalculated Chinese intentions in the region. The Nigerian port is located less than an hour from Africa’s largest metropolitan area, Lagos (est. 21.3 million pop.), and is situated inside the Chinese-controlled Lekki Free Trade Zone. The Chinese-built port increases shipping container capacity from 3,000 to 20,000 containers and has space for five mega container ships to dock simultaneously at the port. Each container ship can carry approximately 20,000 shipping containers.

What is of greater concern is its close location to a Nigerian-multinational oil refinery and new urea and ammonia fertilizer plant. The granularized urea producer is, during a time of global shortage of fertilizer, critical as it is the second largest in the world, according to the Jamestown Foundation. The oil refinery can produce 650,000 barrels a day. Bother are critically needed to help Beijing insure domestic stability in the communist state. This could become even more critical if President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy becomes more aggressive in the coming years and the communist regime faces economic sanctions from western, democratic states.

The Stealth Newsletter published by the Jamestown Foundation points out that “… given its state of completion, its controlling interests, and the potential debt-trap Nigeria may be in with Beijing, it is possible that this new port could be repossessed or repurposed for the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy (PLAN). Of particular note is a controversial “sovereignty clause” in which the PRC is entitled to reclaim whatever assets were given and whatever collateral Nigeria put forth to obtain the loan.” Nigerian journalists report that there is little transparency concerning the Chinese loan program. Some have questioned the long-term viability of the port loan given its similarities to other Chinese loans where “debt-trap diplomacy” ended with the loss of local control of facilities to China. Should China gain control over the Nigerian facilities it would have clear access to the Atlantic Ocean. In recent years Nigeria has become overly dependent on imports from China, creating a significant trade imbalance. Chinese exports account for approximately 80 percent of total bilateral trade volume between the two countries. Reuters reported that in September 2018, Nigeria signed a $328 million loan with China to heavily boost the development of telecommunication infrastructures in Nigeria. In 2020 China began supplying the Nigerian military with equipment. As the Nigerian economy and government become increasingly intertwined with China, it will be more difficult for it to resist pressure for concessions from Beijing and the PLAN. Last year marked the 50^th anniversary of formal relations between the two countries. In June 2022 the Defense News of Nigeria tweeted that “Chinese military hardware are competitive in price and loans are provided for countries that cannot afford it. Most African militaries are looking to modernise and China is interested to develop this aspect of relations to enlarge its presence in the African arms market.” Already Nigeria is promoting China to other African states. Oluwatosin Adeshokan, writing in The Diplomat, says that “For China the establishment of banks in Nigeria presents an opportunity to further integrate itself with the financial systems of the African continent.” He adds that “Since the early 2000s, China’s trade with Africa has increased by over 2,000 percent, reaching $200 billion in 2019. China has since announced its $1 billion Belt and Road Africa infrastructure development fund to help build roads and necessary infrastructure to aid trade on the continent. But the African continent has also seen a change in its business landscape. As of 2017, there were reportedly over 10,000 Chinese-owned firms operating across the continent.” As African states turn away from former colonial powers to trade with the communist state, the risk of Chinese militarization grows in the region. The China connection at Lekki port facility is significant but, it clearly represents only one prong in China’s long-term African strategy.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay