Month: May 2020

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Foreign Policy Update

HONG KONG

Some of the worst news to come out of Asia since the emergence of the Wuhan pandemic is that Hong Kong’s autonomy appears to be coming to an abrupt end. The PRC is forcing the former British colony under a new national security law after bypassing the Hong Kong city legislature. In the 1997 declaration on Hong Kong, Beijing promised 50 years of independent rule as a semi-autonomous region. The governments of the United States, Australia, the UK and Canada issued a joint statement early Friday outlining their deep concern about the direct imposition of very harsh legislation which would curtail Hong Kong people’s liberties and erode Hong Kong’s autonomy.

President Trump on Friday also announced that he has directed his administration to review the full range of agreement since the territory is no longer separate from Beijing. During a press conference at the White House President Trump said he is directing the “administration to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment.” He also noted that he plans to revoke Hong Kong’s “preferential treatment as a separate customs and travel territory from the rest of China.”

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

The President announced that the US is pulling out of the World Health Organization (WHO) due to its mishandling of the Covid-19 virus pandemic. “We will be today terminating our relationship with the World Health Organization and directing those funds to worldwide and deserving urgent global public health needs,” Trump said in a statement from the White House. The President said that the WHO is under China’s control and failing to make the reforms within 30 days as requested by the US. Since WHO has refused to commit to making any reforms the US has stopped over $400 million in funding to the UN body. 

In an interview this week Secretary of State Pompeo reminded people that the head of the World Health Organization in January said there was no human-to-human transmission of the virus and that there was little risk to the world. Pompeo added that at least since December the organization covered up the facts.

AUSTRALIA

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In a Sunday interview Secretary Pompeo was asked about Australia’s Victoria state, which is considering signing up as part of China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) to earn billions from Beijing. Pompeo said that “every citizen of Australia should know that every one of those Belt and Road projects needs to be looked at incredibly closely…nearly each one of them has some cost to it.  There’s often money loaned at concessional rates or conditions placed in the debt documents or government concessions that have to be made to the Chinese Communist Party in order to get those Belt and Road Initiative projects built.  Those present real risk – real risk to the people in that region, real risk to your country – and frankly, they build up the capacity of the Chinese Communist Party to do harm in other ways as well.” 

IRAN

This week Secretary Pompeo announced his decision to end the sanctions waiver covering all remaining JCPOA-originating nuclear projects in Iran, and also sanctioned two Iranian nuclear officials. The Iranian regime has “continued its nuclear brinkmanship by expanding proliferation-sensitive activities.” According to Brian Hook, Special Representative for Iran and Senior Advisor to Pompeo, this is a “complicated and multifaceted decision.”

On Wednesday, Pompeo terminated the nuclear waiver for the three remaining Iran nuclear-related projects. Hook pointed out that this includes the Arak reactor conversion, the provision of enriched uranium for the Tehran research reactor, and the export of Iran-spent and scrap research reactor fuel.  The decision will take effect after a 60-day wind-down.

A senior State Department official said there were basically quite a larger number of projects that had begun under the JCPOA for which US waivers were in place, and those waivers have gradually been taken down one by one with this as the latest step in that progression.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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China’s Pattern of Bad Behavior

As pandemics go, Covid-19 is one for the history books. However, before political interest in China’s handling of the virus dissipates, western intelligence analysts need to consider what lessons the world can learn from this latest tragedy. The recent behavior of China’s political elites is not an isolated incident in poor decision making. It follows a long pattern of aggression and a lack of understanding in the modern nation-state system.

President Xi Jinping and the CCP have consciously and consistently ignored internationally accepted  norms of behavior over the last decade. The country has acted overly aggressive toward its own people, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and other countries across the globe, often without rebuke from world leaders or international organizations. Earlier this week China boasted, although incorrectly, that it chased an American military ship out international waters in the South China Sea. The ruling CCP also bypassed the Hong Kong City legislature by announcing plans to carry through on an excessively harsh sedition and subversion national security law for Hong Kong which, in essence, breaks Beijing’s 1997 joint declaration to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy for 50 years. At the recent annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, it rubber-stamped a 6.6% increase it the country’s military budget, according to press reports on Tuesday. The examples are numerous and egregious. 

While the eyes of the world are on the suffering caused by the Wuhan virus, China is using it as cover and an opportunity to further its international goals. Western journalists from major American newspapers reporting the truth are kicked out of the country. There is no free press in a communist country.

After the initial release of the virus, whether by accident or deliberate act, China had an opportunity to halt its spread. It failed to act as a responsible member of the international community of nations. Instead, President Xi made the decision not to stop the virus from crossing China’s borders by allowing infected persons on international flights leaving the country. China is following a somewhat desperate, long-term, plan to gain hegemonic status among the most powerful nations of the world. 

As Sun Tzu said 2,500 years ago, to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. President Xi and the leadership in the CCP have taken it to heart. While the world is reeling from the release of the COVID-19 virus, China is breaking the west’s resistance without raising a gun. Its propaganda arm spins story after story. 

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When it became obvious China was to blame for the uncontrolled spread of the virus it tried to deflect the obvious and claim the US military created, and then planted, it in China to hurt the communist giant. When that propaganda effort failed numerous high-level officials, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, came out with statements saying that Washington was pushing the two countries to the brink of a new Cold War.

In a Wednesday press briefing, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs David Stillwell, responded saying that the United States does not like what it is seeing in China.  “So given the massive dislocations that have been brought on globally by China’s mishandling of what should have been a minor public health issue in Wuhan, the world right now is focused on survival, not focused on Hong Kong. It appears that Beijing has used this opportunity to accelerate its agenda going into its next political season.”  

The Trump Administration is not giving China a free pass on the pandemic or on recent events involving Hong Kong. The US Navy is conducting freedom of navigation operations in international waters in the South China Sea. American diplomats are holding China accountable. Stillwell said that the more the world stands up and is counted and says “…you need to live up to your commitments and follow through on agreements, obviously the more impactful this action will have.” It appears the United States, and hopefully the rest of the world, is waking to the danger posed by the communist giant.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Questioning Biden’s Mental Ability

Pinny Bugaeff, who submitted this article exclusively to the New York Analysis of Policy and Government, served as a psychiatric Social Worker.  She was employed by a large corporation as the primary therapist in a geriatric day treatment program.  Part of the job involved screening new patients for dementia, and other cognitive impairments. One test which was used then and is still used today was the Folstein Mini Mental Status Exam.

I recently read an article in The Atlantic—Jan/Feb. -2020, an interview where the writer, a self – identified stutterer-who interviewed Biden. Biden offered that the reason he falters when speaking is that he was a stutterer. Interesting. I have known a few folks who stutter. Stuttering may be a neurologically influenced communication disorder-with a genetic and behavioral component but stuttering does not explain either inappropriate behavior nor memory loss of basic facts and figures such as I have been seeing and which seems to be to be getting progressively worse. The Stutterer Gambit seems to be only one of the most recent attempts to explain away his apparent growing senility.

Biden is 77, the same age as I and I know that my cognition is not as sharp or speedy as it once was –what I see in Biden isn’t the run of the mill kind of thing we have as a result of normal aging. I spent two full years working 8 hours a day with gentlemen who were in their 70’s,80’s and a few in their 90’s. Some of them were still pretty sharp and other than speed of recall and forgetting people’s names, they fell well within the range of appropriate behaviors for their age. Those with various types of early dementia were in a different category altogether, very like Biden in their behaviors.

Biden has had surgery for two brain aneurysms in 1988 but according to his neurosurgeon:

“The two brain aneurysms Biden suffered in 1988 were fully treated and he showed no signs of mental trouble as a result, said Dr. Neal Kassell, who performed the surgery on Biden three decades ago.” Nor did Biden suffer any brain damage that could come back to haunt him in old age, Kassell said.”

Really? Two brain aneurysms, two surgical repairs and his surgeon says he has nothing that will haunt him in old age. That may not be the whole picture.

A review of a small website has a good collection of Biden gaffs and a good summation on the subject of what appears to be the candidate’s increasing senility.

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One could forgive anyone enduring the rigors of a hectic primary campaign to occasionally misstate the state he is visiting, or an occasional name or two. But a careful examination of the former Vice President’s debate performances clearly reveals considerable cause for concern. He seems to struggle to stay on topic, other than touting or exaggerating his past role in various issues.

Voters should be increasingly concerned about this. There is, of course, a long-standing social taboo against suggesting a diagnosis of someone without seeing them or having a proper degree. Nevertheless, when an individual seeks to become President of the United States, clearly the most challenging position in the world, the most intense scrutiny by all voters is totally appropriate.

If there is reasonable cause for concern, and there truly is, why does the Democratic Party leadership seem so eager to support his candidacy?

Partially, it is because the clear surviving alternative, socialist Bernie Sanders, with his hard-left beliefs, enthusiasm for unworkable solutions, and, above all, his bizarre but sincere admiration for Communist leaders, would be a disaster in the general election. For traditional Democrats, a Sanders Administration would be beyond their control as he established a wholly new paradigm.

 But there are other reasons as well.  It is evident that Biden can and would be manipulated. What President Trump calls the “Deep State” would have a feast within his potential administration. It would be a presidency-by-committee of unaccountable, unpublicized advisers, interest groups,  party leaders and top bureaucrats.

A few examples of Biden gaffes can be found at   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH-y_w0O5Bw, https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-bites-wifes-finger-in-bizarre-campaign-stop-moment-2019-11, and https://nypost.com/2019/08/05/biden-completely-flubs-where-mass-shootings-occurred/

Photo: Official White House picture

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U.S., U.K. Move to Protect Arctic

U.S. and British naval vessels engaged in a “freedom of navigation” joint mission in the Arctic-region Barents Sea, the first of its kind since the mid-1990s.

The comparatively shallow sea contains important fishing and hydrocarbon assets.

Russia has moved significant military assets to the Arctic, and China has, since the start of the 21st century, sought to gain a political foothold in the region, despite having no geographical connection to it.

According to U.S. Navy sources, three Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyers — USS Donald Cook, USS Porter and USS Roosevelt supported by fast combat support ship USNS Supply and joined by the Royal Navy’s HMS Kent, were deployed to the region to assert freedom of navigation and demonstrate seamless integration among allies.

The U.S. Dept. of Defense has stressed that China and Russia, America’s great-power competitors, are increasing their presence in the Arctic Ocean, as are many other nations. According to Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Karl L. Schultz, “Presence equals influence. If we don’t have a presence there, our competitors will.”

Commandant Schultz emphasized that nations are engaged in mineral, oil and gas exploration there, as well as jockeying for strategic advantage.  The Arctic is seen as vital to both commerce and national security.

The imbalance between Washington and Moscow is overwhelming, in Russia’s favor.  Putin’s military has 46 ice cutters, including seven that are nuclear powered, and 12 more are under construction. Schultz noted also that although China isn’t an Arctic nation, they have two ice cutters and another under construction. “It’s hard not to see [China’s ] activities in the Arctic as anything but an overt claim to power, pure and simple.” The U.S. Coast Guard has a mere two ice cutters, the Polar Sea, a heavy ice cutter commissioned in 1976, and the Healy, a medium ice cutter, commissioned in 1999.

As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government has previously noted, Russia is engaging in new and extremely worrisome activities in the Arctic. According to The NATO Association’s Aleksi Korpela “…the erection of military bases and deployment of forces rings ominous to contiguous states and those with Arctic possessions or interests. This issue has become especially controversial in the last few years, as Russia has expanded its military infrastructure following the creation of a new strategic district: the Arctic Joint Strategic Command (OSK) … …Russia’s most important maritime asset in the Arctic is its fleet of icebreakers, which is the largest in the world.”

Mark Galeotti has written in the Moscow Times that “Russia is using extortion in the Arctic…  Russia’s icebreaker fleet is a particular ‘ice-power’ asset: It is the world’s largest and includes the massive nuclear-powered vessel 50 Years of Victory… This is all very impressive, but it begs the question of just what these forces are meant to do. Bombers cannot dig for oil, infantry cannot collect taxes from passing Chinese container ships. But they can board and occupy oil rigs, seize cargo ships and threaten any forces that seek to challenge Moscow’s right to do this. After all, it may be impossible to ‘occupy’ the Arctic, but Russia is developing assets that could deny it to anyone else.”

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As the seas have warmed, great power competition in the region, for both natural resources and military advantage, has escalated. “All this presents new geostrategic challenges,” said Navy Adm. James Foggo, the commander of U.S. Naval Forces in Europe and the commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command in Naples, Italy. 

“The High North is attracting global interest, with abundant natural resources and opening maritime routes,” Foggo said in an article in Defense One. 

Russia — with its long coastline on the Arctic Ocean — is aggressively seeking to assert its preeminence in the region. The Russians recently unveiled a new icebreaker, the Ivan Papanin, that can carry Kalibr cruise missiles. “Who puts missiles on icebreakers?” Foggo asked.

Russia is also deploying surface ships and new hybrid Kilo-class submarines. “We’re seeing the Russians deploy more submarines in the North Atlantic, and these subs are deploying for longer periods of time and with more lethal weapon systems,” the admiral said. 

The Soviets had outposts all along its Arctic coast. These were abandoned following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But Russia has returned to Soviet-era outposts and built new military facilities above the Arctic Circle. 

Russia at least borders on the Arctic Ocean. China calls itself “a near-Arctic nation” and seeks to assert its rights in the region. The Chinese are calling for freedom of navigation in the Arctic, even as they try to suppress that right in the South China Sea. 

There will be more deployments and more exercises in the High North, Foggo said. “The Russians are operating with state-of-the-art nuclear submarines,” he noted.

Photo:  U.S. Navy

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Flight of the X-37B

The U.S. Space Force launched the secretive  X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle earlier this month from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.

The X-37B is an unmanned space plane boosted into orbit by a rocket and gliding to Earth like the space shuttle. According to the spacecraft’s manufacturer, The X-37B is one of the world’s newest and most advanced re-entry spacecraft, designed to operate in low-earth orbit, 150 to 500 miles above the Earth. The vehicle is the first since the Space Shuttle with the ability to return experiments to Earth for further inspection and analysis. 

“The ability to test new systems in space and return them to Earth is unique to the X-37B program and enables the U.S. to more efficiently and effectively develop space capabilities necessary to maintain superiority in the space domain,” said Secretary of the Air Force Barbara Barrett.

The X-37B remains a Department of the Air Force asset; however, the U.S. Space Force is responsible for the launch, on-orbit operations, and landing.

The major purpose of the latest mission involves a revolutionary attempt to transform solar power into radio frequency microwave energy which could then be transmitted to the ground. The mission will also deploy the FalconSat-8, a small satellite developed by the U.S. Air Force Academy and sponsored by the Air Force Research Laboratory to conduct several experiments on orbit. The FalconSat-8 is an educational platform that will carry five experimental payloads for USAFA to operate. In addition, two National Aeronautics and Space Administration experiments will be included to study the results of radiation and other space effects on a materials sample plate and seeds used to grow food.

The X-37B program completed its fifth mission in October 2019, landing after 780 days on orbit, extending the total number of days spent on orbit for the spacecraft to 2,865 – or seven years and 10 months.

Space Force Gen. John W. Raymond recently discussed the growing strategic importance of the realm beyond Earth’s atmosphere.

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“The Space Force is needed now because potential adversaries see space as a warfighting domain and the strategic environment in space has changed. We’ve seen Russia maneuver a satellite with characteristics of a weapon system in proximity to a U.S. satellite,” he said.

Russia has also tested a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon. “And just in the past few weeks, Iran attempted to launch an operational satellite in making a claim for becoming a space power,” he said. 

Many of the American systems were designed and launched when space was a benign domain. They provide a range of capabilities that not only the U.S. military, but the civilian world takes for granted. These include the Global Positioning System, instantaneous communications, even the platform for the webinar. The systems are vulnerable to malign actors. 

Air Force Secretary Barbara M. Barrett has noted that” It is important for us to deter aggressive action against American assets. But if deterrence fails, we need to be prepared to defend and, if necessary, shoot back.”

The Space Force is building the space capabilities needed and to defending those capabilities and is also developing the doctrine needed to police the actions that are taking place in space and setting the expectations for what is fair behavior and appropriate behavior in space”

“This sixth mission is a big step for the X-37B program,” said Mr. Randy Walden, Director and Program Executive Officer for the Department of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office. “This will be the first X-37B mission to use a service module to host experiments. The incorporation of a service module on this mission enables us to continue to expand the capabilities of the spacecraft and host more experiments than any of the previous missions.”

Photo: U.S. Space Force

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North Korea’s Cyber Threat

Washington has issued an advisory warning about North Korea’ (DPRK) ongoing cyber threat.

According to the advisory, “The DPRK’s malicious cyber activities threaten the United States and the broader international community and, in particular, pose a significant threat to the integrity and stability of the international financial system. Under the pressure of robust U.S. and UN sanctions, the DPRK has increasingly relied on illicit activities – including cybercrime – to generate revenue for its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs. In particular, the United States is deeply concerned about North Korea’s malicious cyber activities, which the U.S. government refers to as HIDDEN COBRA. “

Despite its weak economy, The DPRK has the capability to conduct disruptive or destructive cyber activities that endanger elements of America’s key infrastructure .

It’s not just nation vs. nation.   North Korea also uses cyber capabilities to steal from financial institutions, and has demonstrated a pattern of disruptive and harmful cyber activity that is wholly inconsistent with the growing international consensus on what constitutes responsible State behavior in cyberspace. 

Several nations have banded together to combat the challenge. One example: in December 2017, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and the United Kingdom publicly attributed the WannaCry 2.0 ransomware attack to the DPRK and denounced the DPRK’s harmful and irresponsible cyber activity. Denmark and Japan issued supporting statements for the joint denunciation of the destructive WannaCry 2.0 ransomware attack, which affected hundreds of thousands of computers around the world in May of that year.

North Korea’s state-sponsored cyber actors primarily consist of hackers, cryptologists, and software developers who conduct espionage, cyber-enabled theft targeting financial institutions and digital currency exchanges, and politically-motivated operations against foreign media companies. They develop and deploy a wide range of malware tools around the world to enable these activities and have grown increasingly sophisticated. 

 The warning outlined some common tactics the Pyongyang-sponsored cyber criminals use to gain funds. Sometimes, the target is not an individual or a business, but a financial institutions and digital currencies. The illicit gains are then laundered within North Korea.

Another tactic is extortion. The cyber crooks will threaten to disrupt or shut down entirely an organizations valuable online presence unless money is paid.  Occasionally, these arrangements are called “consulting contracts,” with the alleged services simply promising not to attack the business.  It’s the 21st century of the old tactic of promising not to break a store window unless money is given to the vandal.

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Another interesting approach is known as “cryptojacking.” That involves a scheme to compromise a victim machine and steal its computing resources to mine digital currency. 

According to U.S. experts, “These activities highlight the DPRK’s use of cyber-enabled means to generate revenue while mitigating the impact of sanctions and show that any country can be exposed to and exploited by the DPRK.”

The attacks have been widespread, and have even included the U.S. government and even the military.

The  most famous cyber attacks have included the 2014 assault on Sony Pictures, a 2016 attempt to steal a billion dollars  from a Bangladesh bank, the infamous 2017 “Wannacry” virus that affected massive numbers of computers, including those used in private homes, and the 2016 “Fastcash” tactic which targeted ATMS in Asia and Africa.

The funds gained are used for a variety of purposes by Pyongyang, including the financing of its nuclear weapons program.

The effort to combat North Korea’s cyberterrorism is multinational. A 2017 UN Security Council resolution required all Member States to repatriate DPRK nationals earning income abroad, including IT workers, by December 22, 2019. The FBI and other U.S. agencies have urged businesses and governments to strengthen their computer security, and to promptly report all attempts at theft and coercion by Pyongyang’s agents.

the United States strongly urges countries to strengthen network defense, shutter DPRK joint ventures in third countries, and expel foreign-located North Korean information technology (IT) workers in a manner consistent with applicable international law.  A 2017 UN Security Council resolution required all Member States to repatriate DPRK nationals earning income abroad, including IT workers, by December 22, 2019.  The United States also seeks to enhance the capacity of foreign governments and the private sector to understand, identify, defend against, investigate, prosecute, and respond to DPRK cyber threats and participate in international efforts to help ensure the stability of cyberspace. 

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

U.S. Withdraws from the Open Skies Treaty

(U.S. State Department Notice): The United States has submitted notice of its decision to withdraw from the Treaty on Open Skies to the Treaty Depositaries and to all other States Parties to the Treaty. Effective six months from tomorrow, the United States will no longer be a party to the Treaty. We may, however, reconsider our withdrawal should Russia return to full compliance with the Treaty.

A cornerstone of President Trump’s National Security Strategy is to protect the American people, the American way of life, and American security interests. As the President has made clear, the United States must take a clear-eyed look at any agreement through the prism of today’s reality and assess whether such agreement remains in the U.S. interest. After careful consideration, including input from Allies and key partners, it has become abundantly clear that it is no longer in America’s interest to remain a party to the Treaty on Open Skies.

At its core, the Treaty was designed to provide all signatories an increased level of transparency and mutual understanding and cooperation, regardless of their size. Russia’s implementation and violation of Open Skies, however, has undermined this central confidence-building function of the Treaty – and has, in fact, fueled distrust and threats to our national security – making continued U.S. participation untenable.

While the United States along with our Allies and partners that are States Parties to the Treaty have lived up to our commitments and obligations under the Treaty, Russia has flagrantly and continuously violated the Treaty in various ways for years. This is not a story exclusive to just the Treaty on Open Skies, unfortunately, for Russia has been a serial violator of many of its arms control obligations and commitments.  Despite the Open Skies Treaty’s aspiration to build confidence and trust by demonstrating through unrestricted overflights that no party has anything to hide, Russia has consistently acted as if it were free to turn its obligations off and on at will, unlawfully denying or restricting Open Skies observation flights whenever it desires.

Russia has refused access to observation flights within a 10-kilometer corridor along its border with the Russian-occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thereby attempting to advance false Russian claims that these occupied territories are independent states.  Russia’s designation of an Open Skies refueling airfield in Crimea, Ukraine, is similarly an attempt to advance its claim of purported annexation of the peninsula, which the United States does not and will never accept. Russia has also illegally placed a restriction on flight distance over Kaliningrad, despite the fact that this enclave has become the location of a significant military build-up that Russian officials have suggested includes short-range nuclear-tipped missiles targeting NATO.  In 2019, Russia unjustifiably denied a shared United States and Canada observation flight over a large Russian military exercise.

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These problems, moreover, follow on years of different Russian violations of the Treaty at various points since the Treaty entered into force, such as Russia’s violation, up until 2017, of improperly declaring force majeure to impose airspace restrictions related to VIP ground movements.  These periodic and shifting violations highlight Russia’s willingness for many years now, to restrict or deny overflights whenever it desires.  This strikes at the heart of the Treaty’s confidence-building purpose.

The problems raised by Russia’s selective implementation of Open Skies, moreover, go beyond just violating the Treaty’s provisions themselves.  Its approach to Treaty implementation has fatally undermined the very intent of the Treaty as a confidence- and trust-building measure, for far from allowing Open Skies to contribute – as it was intended to do – to building regional trust and goodwill, Moscow has increasingly used Open Skies as a tool to facilitate military coercion.  Moscow appears to use Open Skies imagery in support of an aggressive new Russian doctrine of targeting critical infrastructure in the United States and Europe with precision-guided conventional munitions.  Rather than using the Open Skies Treaty as a mechanism for improving trust and confidence through military transparency, Russia has, therefore, weaponized the Treaty by making it into a tool of intimidation and threat.

To those who suggest the United States respond with reciprocal steps of our own analogous to Russia’s own provocative actions and violations, we say: doing that would only further undermine the core purpose of the Treaty, and create further tension and distrust between the United States and Russia. We will not contribute to further weaponizing and poisoning with distrust a Treaty that was intended to build confidence.  The Open Skies Treaty was meant to contribute to international security, but it has been twisted and perverted in its implementation and now serves Russian purposes inimical to that security.

We understand that many of our Allies and partners in Europe still find value in the Treaty, and we are grateful for the thoughtful feedback they have offered us during the course of our review of these questions.  If not for the value they place on the OST, we would likely have exited long ago.  We are not willing, however, to perpetuate the Treaty’s current problems of Russian-engendered threat and distrust simply in order to maintain an empty façade of cooperation with Moscow.

Make no mistake: Russia alone bears responsibility for these developments, and for the continued erosion of the arms control architecture.  We remain committed to effective arms control that advances U.S., Ally, and partner security, that is verifiable and enforceable, and that includes partners that comply responsibly with their obligations.  But we cannot remain in arms control agreements that are violated by the other side, and that are actively being used not to support but rather to undermine international peace and security.  As noted, we may be willing to reconsider this decision if Russia demonstrates a return to full compliance with this confidence-building Treaty, but without such a change of course from the Kremlin, our path will lead to withdrawal in six months’ time.

Illustration: Pixabay

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China Targets Western COVID Research

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) have issued a warning to about China’s threat to COVID-19-related research.

The FBI is investigating the targeting and compromise of U.S. organizations conducting COVID-19-related research by China’s spies. Beijing’s agents are attempting to obtain valuable intellectual property and public health data related to vaccines, treatments, and testing from networks and personnel affiliated with COVID-19-related research. According to the Bureau, “The potential theft of this information jeopardizes the delivery of secure, effective, and efficient treatment options.”

The FBI and CISA have cautioned all organizations conducting research in these areas to maintain dedicated cybersecurity and insider threat practices to deter the PRC’s cyberspies.

Both agencies have outlined how weakness in security may occur, and what to do about the challenge.  They note that press attention affiliating an organization with COVID-19-related research will lead to increased interest and subsequent cyber activity. To deter the illicit activity, they urge researchers to strengthen all systems for critical vulnerabilities, prioritizing timely patching for known vulnerabilities of internet-connected servers and software processing internet data. Web applications should be scanned for unauthorized access, modification, or anomalous activities. Credential requirements should be upgraded against possible intrusion. When suspicious activity is spotted, the questionable users should be blocked and suspended. And of course, report dangerous activity to the FBI.

A joint U.S.-U.K. international effort to deter Chinese COVID-19 espionage is also raising an alarm. A joint alert from the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) , the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the United Kingdom’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) warns that there are “indications that advanced persistent threat groups are exploiting the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as part of their cyber operations.”

According to officials of the two nations,  Anglo-American healthcare bodies, pharmaceutical companies, academia, medical research organizations, and local governments are specifically targeted. The cyberspies collect bulk personal information, intellectual property, sensitive information and related intelligence.

There have been a number of suspected incidents in which threat actors are targeting these organizations in order to steal sensitive research data and intellectual property for commercial and state benefit.

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These organizations’ global reach and international supply chains increase exposure to malicious cyber actors. Beijing’s agents are exploiting weaknesses in supply chains, a noted security weak link, to achieve their goals.  That weakness has grown worse as the pandemic has resulted in the shift to remote working, which has considerably increased vulnerability.  Specifically,

Recently cyberspies have scanned the external websites of targeted companies, looking for vulnerabilities in unpatched software. Known targets include Citrix vulnerability CVE-2019-19781,  vulnerabilities in virtual private networks, and products from Pulse Secure, Fortinet, and Palo Alto.

International investigators are reviewing  large-scale password spraying campaigns conducted by malicious foreign actors.

These actors are using this type of attack to target healthcare entities in a number of countries—including the United Kingdom and the United States—as well as international healthcare organizations. In the past, they have used password spraying to target a range of organizations and companies across sectors—including government, emergency services, law enforcement, academia and research organizations, financial institutions, and telecommunications and retail companies.

Password spraying is a commonly used style of brute force attack in which the attacker tries a single and commonly used password against many accounts before moving on to try a second password, and so on. This technique allows the attacker to remain undetected by avoiding rapid or frequent account lockouts. These attacks are successful because, for any given large set of users, there will likely be some with common passwords. Malicious cyber actors, collate names from various online sources that provide organizational details and use this information to identify possible accounts for targeted institutions. The actors will then “spray” the identified accounts with lists of commonly used passwords.

Once the malicious cyber actor compromises a single account, they will use it to access other accounts where the credentials are reused. Additionally, the actor could attempt to move laterally across the network to steal additional data and implement further attacks against other accounts within the network.

In previous incidents investigated by CISA and NCSC, malicious cyber actors used password spraying to compromise email accounts in an organization and then, in turn, used these accounts to download the victim organization’s Global Address List (GAL). The actors then used the GAL to password spray further accounts.

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Quick Analysis

Threats From Space, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its examination of threats from space, using the Defense Intelligence Agency’s recent report.

IRAN

Iran recognizes the strategic value of space and counterspace capabilities and will attempt to deny an adversary use of space during a conflict. Tehran has publically acknowledged it has developed capabilities to jam communications and GPS signals. Tehran may also contribute to the proliferation of jamming equipment. Since 2010, Iran Electronics Industries has marketed several GPS jammers on its website

Tehran’s pursuit of a national space program supports both civilian and military goals, including boosting national pride, economic development, and military modernization. The Iran Space Agency and Iran Space Research Center—which are subordinate to the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology—along with the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics oversee the country’s SLV and satellite development programs. Iran is also seeking to improve its space object tracking capabilities and, in 2005, joined the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.

Tehran states it has developed sophisticated capabilities, including SLVs and communications and remote sensing satellites, but its SLVs are only able to launch microsatellites into LEO and have proven unreliable. Nonetheless, Iran has had a few successful launches of the two-stage Safir SLV since its first attempt in 2008. It has also revealed the larger two-stage Simorgh SLV, which could serve as a test bed for developing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technologies. Because of the inherent overlap in technology between ICBMs and SLVs, Iran’s development of larger, more capable SLV boosters remains a concern for a future ICBM capability. Also, these advancements could be applied to developing a basic ground-based ASAT missile, should Iran choose to do so in the future.

NORTH KOREA

North Korea’s space program is administered by a state-run civilian agency, the National Aerospace Development Administration. 239 North Korea’s space launch complex on the west coast, the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and associated space tracking facilities in Pyongyang both supported satellite launch cycles in 2012 and 2016. An older space launch site on the east coast has not been used for a launch since 2009.

Similar to Iran, North Korea will try to deny an adversary use of space during a conflict. North Korea has demonstrated non-kinetic counterspace capabilities, including GPS and satellite communication jamming. North Korea also has ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles that can reach orbit and could, in theory, be used to target satellites in a conflict

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Although North Korea placed two satellites in orbit and has in the past articulated further space ambitions, their program enabled them to test technology used in ballistic missiles under the guise of peaceful use of space. These systems provided North Korea with valuable data applicable to the development of long-range, multistage ballistic missiles.

OUTLOOK

Today, space has become a seamless part of many military and civilian activities. The advantages the United States holds in space capabilities will drive some nations to improve their abilities to access and operate in space. Moreover, some actors will seek counterspace capabilities that target the perceived United States and allied reliance on space, including the ability to use secure satellite communications, precision strike capabilities, and ISR assets.

China and Russia will continue to improve their space programs, including ISR, communications, space launch, and human spaceflight. Commercially, both will compete internationally to build satellites and supply space launch, navigation, and ISR services.

Beijing and Moscow will continue to see space as integral to winning modern wars. They are developing systems that pose a threat to freedom of action in space. Both will continue their efforts to enhance their space and counterspace capabilities, and better integrate them into their respective militaries. Iran and North Korea will avail themselves of space-based services, such as ISR, communications, and navigation, to increase their capabilities in civil and military domains. 252 Both will maintain their ability to conduct EW against adversaries and theoretically could use their missile and SLV advancements to target orbiting satellites.

Globally, the space industry will continue to expand as technological and cost barriers fall and international partnerships for joint production grow. State, non-state, and commercial actors increasingly will have access to information from space. 253 The number of satellites and debris on orbit will grow concurrently, making tracking satellites, discriminating threats from non-threats, and predicting and preventing collisions a greater challenge.

As the number of spacefaring nations grows and as some actors integrate space and counterspace capabilities into military operations, these trends will pose a challenge to U.S. space dominance and present new risks for assets on orbit.

Photo: Iran’s Simogh rocket

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Quick Analysis

Threats From Space, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its review of threats from space, using The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s summary of the danger.

CHINA

While China and Russia are developing counterspace weapons systems, they are promoting agreements at the United Nations that limit weaponization of space. Their proposals do not address many space warfare capabilities, and they lack verification mechanisms, which provides room for China and Russia to continue to develop counterspace weapons.10,11 The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction on orbit and on any celestial body and it prohibits using celestial bodies for military bases, testing, or maneuvers. 107 states have ratified the treaty, including the United States, China, North Korea, and Russia. Iran is one of 23 states that have signed, but not ratified, the treaty.

China continues to improve its counterspace weapons capabilities and has enacted military reforms to better integrate cyberspace, space, and EW into joint military operations.

The PLA views space superiority, the ability to control the information sphere, and denying adversaries the same as key components of conducting modern “informatized” wars. Since observing the U.S. military’s performance during the 1991 Gulf War, the PLA embarked on an effort to modernize weapon systems and update doctrine to place the focus on using and countering adversary information-enabled warfare. Space and counterspace operations will form integral components of PLA campaigns, given China’s perceptions of the importance of space-enabled operations to U.S. and allied forces and the growing importance of space to enable beyond-line-of-sight operations for deployed Chinese forces. The PLA also sees counterspace operations as a means to deter and counter a possible U.S. intervention during a regional military conflict.50,51 PLA analysis of U.S. and allied military operations states that “destroying or capturing satellites and other sensors” would make it difficult to use precision guided weapons. Moreover, PLA writings suggest that reconnaissance, communications, navigation, and early warning satellites could be among the targets of attacks designed to “blind and deafen the enemy.”

The PLA has an operational ground-based ASAT missile intended to target LEO satellites. China has also formed military units that have begun training with ASAT missiles. China probably intends to pursue additional ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to GEO. In 2013, China launched an object into space on a ballistic trajectory with a peak altitude above 30,000 km. No new satellites were released from the object, and the launch profile was inconsistent with traditional SLVs, ballistic missiles, or sounding rocket launches for scientific research

RUSSIA

Nonetheless, over the last two decades, Moscow has been developing a suite of counterspace weapons capabilities, including EW to deny, degrade, and disrupt communications and navigation and DEW to deny the use of space-based imagery.146,147 Russia is probably also building a ground-based missile capable of destroying satellites in orbit.148,149 Similar to China, Russia supports space arms control agreements to prevent weaponization of space, even as it views space as a warfighting domain.

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Strategy, Doctrine, and Intent

Russian military doctrine and authoritative writings clearly articulate that Russia views space as a warfighting domain and that achieving supremacy in space will be a decisive factor in winning future conflicts. Russian military thinkers believe the importance of space will continue to expand Russian military doctrine and authoritative writings clearly articulate that Russia views space as a warfighting domain and that achieving supremacy in space will be a decisive factor in winning future conflicts.

As Russia continues to modernize its military, it will increasingly incorporate space-provided services across its forces. Russia possesses a robust space program with a strong foundation of technical knowledge and expertise fostered by over 60 years of experience in space. However, Moscow wants to avoid becoming overly reliant on space to carry out its national defense mission.

Moscow views space as a key enabler of U.S. precision strike and military force projection capabilities. When paired with U.S. missile defense systems, Russia believes U.S. space-enabled, conventional precision strike capabilities undermine strategic stability. 163,164 At the same time, Russia views America’s perceived dependence on space as the “Achilles heel” of U.S. military power, which can be exploited to achieve Russian conflict objectives. 165 Russia is therefore pursuing counterspace systems to neutralize or deny U.S. space-based services, both military and commercial, as a means of offsetting a perceived U.S. military advantage and is developing an array of weapons designed to interfere with or destroy an adversary’s satellites.

Russian counterspace doctrine involves employing ground, air, and space-based systems to target an adversary’s satellites, with attacks ranging from temporary jamming or sensor blinding to destruction of enemy spacecraft and supporting infrastructure. 168,169,170,171 Moscow believes developing and fielding counterspace capabilities will deter aggression by adversaries reliant upon space. 172 If deterrence fails, Russia believes its counterspace forces will offer its military leaders the ability to control escalation of a conflict through selective targeting of adversary space systems.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Photo: China’s Long March 5 rocket