Threats From Space, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its examination of threats from space, using the Defense Intelligence Agency’s recent report.

IRAN

Iran recognizes the strategic value of space and counterspace capabilities and will attempt to deny an adversary use of space during a conflict. Tehran has publically acknowledged it has developed capabilities to jam communications and GPS signals. Tehran may also contribute to the proliferation of jamming equipment. Since 2010, Iran Electronics Industries has marketed several GPS jammers on its website

Tehran’s pursuit of a national space program supports both civilian and military goals, including boosting national pride, economic development, and military modernization. The Iran Space Agency and Iran Space Research Center—which are subordinate to the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology—along with the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics oversee the country’s SLV and satellite development programs. Iran is also seeking to improve its space object tracking capabilities and, in 2005, joined the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.

Tehran states it has developed sophisticated capabilities, including SLVs and communications and remote sensing satellites, but its SLVs are only able to launch microsatellites into LEO and have proven unreliable. Nonetheless, Iran has had a few successful launches of the two-stage Safir SLV since its first attempt in 2008. It has also revealed the larger two-stage Simorgh SLV, which could serve as a test bed for developing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technologies. Because of the inherent overlap in technology between ICBMs and SLVs, Iran’s development of larger, more capable SLV boosters remains a concern for a future ICBM capability. Also, these advancements could be applied to developing a basic ground-based ASAT missile, should Iran choose to do so in the future.

NORTH KOREA

North Korea’s space program is administered by a state-run civilian agency, the National Aerospace Development Administration. 239 North Korea’s space launch complex on the west coast, the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and associated space tracking facilities in Pyongyang both supported satellite launch cycles in 2012 and 2016. An older space launch site on the east coast has not been used for a launch since 2009.

Similar to Iran, North Korea will try to deny an adversary use of space during a conflict. North Korea has demonstrated non-kinetic counterspace capabilities, including GPS and satellite communication jamming. North Korea also has ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles that can reach orbit and could, in theory, be used to target satellites in a conflict

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Although North Korea placed two satellites in orbit and has in the past articulated further space ambitions, their program enabled them to test technology used in ballistic missiles under the guise of peaceful use of space. These systems provided North Korea with valuable data applicable to the development of long-range, multistage ballistic missiles.

OUTLOOK

Today, space has become a seamless part of many military and civilian activities. The advantages the United States holds in space capabilities will drive some nations to improve their abilities to access and operate in space. Moreover, some actors will seek counterspace capabilities that target the perceived United States and allied reliance on space, including the ability to use secure satellite communications, precision strike capabilities, and ISR assets.

China and Russia will continue to improve their space programs, including ISR, communications, space launch, and human spaceflight. Commercially, both will compete internationally to build satellites and supply space launch, navigation, and ISR services.

Beijing and Moscow will continue to see space as integral to winning modern wars. They are developing systems that pose a threat to freedom of action in space. Both will continue their efforts to enhance their space and counterspace capabilities, and better integrate them into their respective militaries. Iran and North Korea will avail themselves of space-based services, such as ISR, communications, and navigation, to increase their capabilities in civil and military domains. 252 Both will maintain their ability to conduct EW against adversaries and theoretically could use their missile and SLV advancements to target orbiting satellites.

Globally, the space industry will continue to expand as technological and cost barriers fall and international partnerships for joint production grow. State, non-state, and commercial actors increasingly will have access to information from space. 253 The number of satellites and debris on orbit will grow concurrently, making tracking satellites, discriminating threats from non-threats, and predicting and preventing collisions a greater challenge.

As the number of spacefaring nations grows and as some actors integrate space and counterspace capabilities into military operations, these trends will pose a challenge to U.S. space dominance and present new risks for assets on orbit.

Photo: Iran’s Simogh rocket

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay