Month: November 2018

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Major Study Released on America’s Defense Crisis

According to just-released Final Report of The National Defense Strategy Commission, (Entitled Providing for the Common Defense) “The security and wellbeing of the United States are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America’s military superiority—the hard-power backbone of its global influence and national security—has eroded to a dangerous degree. Rivals and adversaries are challenging the United States on many fronts and in many domains. America’s ability to defend its allies, its partners, and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt. If the nation does not act promptly to remedy these circumstances, the consequences will be grave and lasting… The Commission argues that America confronts a grave crisis of national security and national defense, as U.S. military advantages erode and the strategic landscape becomes steadily more threatening. If the United States does not show greater urgency and seriousness in responding to this crisis and does not take decisive steps to rebuild its military advantages now, the damage to American security and influence could be devastating.”

The Commission which produced the study was chartered by Congress to independently assess the National Defense Strategy against the threats America faces and the resources available. The bipartisan report validates the focus on great power competition as America determines the size, shape, and capabilities of its’ armed forces.

Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, notes that the Commission’s analysis “reinforces my belief that we cannot afford to return to the days of budget driven strategies or risk reversing the readiness restoration already underway. It also echoes some of my own concerns; that we are falling behind on key capabilities, that Congress is not reliably providing appropriate resources, and that we face difficult choices if we are going to provide the country with the defense it deserves.”

The Report is a compilation of the assessments of the National Defense Strategy and recommendations based on its analysis related not just to defense strategy, but also to the larger geopolitical environment in which that strategy must be executed.

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents the Executive Summary of the Report in this four-part series.

PROVIDING FOR THE COMMON DEFENSE

Since World War II, the United States has led in building a world of unusual prosperity, freedom, and security—an achievement that has benefitted America enormously.
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That achievement has been enabled by unmatched U.S. military power. Investments made in our military and the competence and sacrifice of those who serve have provided for the defense and security of America, its citizens overseas, and its allies and partners. America has deterred or defeated aggression and preserved stability in key regions around the globe. It has ensured the freedom of the global commons on which American and international prosperity depends, and given America unrivaled access and influence. Not least, America’s military strengths have prevented America from being coerced or intimidated, and helped avert a recurrence of the devastating global wars of the early 20th century, which required repeated interventions at a cost of hundreds of thousands of U.S. lives.

Put simply, U.S. military power has been indispensable to global peace and stability—and to America’s own security, prosperity, and global leadership. Today, changes at home and abroad are diminishing U.S. military advantages and threatening vital U.S. interests. Authoritarian competitors—especially China and Russia—are seeking regional hegemony and the means to project power globally. They are pursuing determined military buildups aimed at neutralizing U.S. strengths.

Threats posed by Iran and North Korea have worsened as those countries have developed more advanced weapons and creatively employed asymmetric tactics. In multiple regions, gray-zone aggression—intimidation and coercion in the space between war and peace—has become the tool of choice for many. The dangers posed by transnational threat organizations, particularly radical jihadist groups, have also evolved and intensified. Around the world, the proliferation of advanced technology is allowing more actors to contest U.S. military power in more threatening ways. The United States thus is in competition and conflict with an array of challengers and adversaries. Finally, due to political dysfunction and decisions made by both major political parties—and particularly due to the effects of the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011 and years of failing to enact timely appropriations—America has significantly weakened its own defense. Defense spending was cut substantially under the BCA, with pronounced detrimental effects on the size, modernization, and readiness of the military.

The convergence of these trends has created a crisis of national security for the United States—what some leading voices in the U.S. national security community have termed an emergency. Across Eurasia, grayzone aggression is steadily undermining the security of U.S. allies and partners and eroding American influence. Regional military balances in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Pacific have shifted in decidedly adverse ways. These trends are undermining deterrence of U.S. adversaries and the confidence of American allies, thus increasing the likelihood of military conflict. The U.S. military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict. It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia. The United States is particularly at risk of being overwhelmed should its military be forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously. Additionally, it would be unwise and irresponsible not to expect adversaries to attempt debilitating kinetic, cyber, or other types of attacks against Americans at home while they seek to defeat our military abroad. U.S. military superiority is no longer assured and the implications for American interests and American security are severe.

The Report Continues Monday

Photo: Soldiers from 1st Battalion of the 151st Infantry Division in live-fire exercises (U.S. Army)

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China Expands Tyranny, Exports Idea?

China is adopting a concept that would oversee most facets of an individuals’ life, and use the information to decide a person’s worth.  That disturbingly totalitarian concept may be coming to the west.

The American Civil Liberties Unions’ Jay Stanley reports that “China appears to be leveraging all the tools of the information age—electronic purchasing data, social networks, algorithmic sorting—to construct the ultimate tool of social control. It is, as one commentator put it, “authoritarianism, gamified.”

Media Hub describes the concept: “Welcome to China’s Social Credit System in which each citizen, by 2020, will earn a single number based on undisclosed algorithms that will tell everyone what kind of person they are. The numbers are then ranked against the rest of the population. For the Chinese government, this is an effort to control its 1.4 billion people and create a system of trustworthiness. What many might consider a Big Brother dystopia is in the early stages of a trial-run in China. If you’re a Chinese citizen, all of your online and public interactions, shopping patterns at favorite stores, Google searches, even how often you play video games are factored in. The numbers crunched out of all your daily habits will eventually tell you where you can work, the type of transportation you can take, whether you can buy a house and determine what schools your children can attend. What seems like a scene from Netflix’s “Black Mirror” might actually be nearer to America than people realize.”

TechDirt  describes how the process unfolds: “China’s plan to control the hearts, minds and internet connections of its citizens continues unimpeded. That’s the great thing about authoritarian regimes: rollout of mandatory programs is usually only a problem of logistics, not opposition…Everybody is measured by a score between 350 and 950, which is linked to their national identity card. While currently supposedly voluntary, the government has announced that it will be mandatory by 2020…the scores serve as a measure of political compliance. Among the things that will hurt a citizen’s score are posting political opinions without prior permission, or posting information that the regime does not like…This is where all the government’s moves towards greater control of the internet comes to fruition. To keep “score,” the government needs to tie IDs to online activity. Keeping the internet within the government’s walls makes it that much easier. But it’s not just online activity that will affect “citizen scores.” It’s almost every aspect of their lives. Also used to calculate scores is information about hobbies, lifestyle, and shopping. Buying certain goods will improve your score, while others (such as video games) will lower it. Chinese citizens who want to remain in the government’s good graces will need to balance “negative” purchases with offsetting positive purchases, most likely domestic electronics and appliances. As disturbing this is, the truly horrific aspect of the “citizen score” is that it can be influenced by friends and family members.”

The most disturbing news about all this for non-Chinese citizens is that the idea may be coming to the West.

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 PJ Media reports on the legal/technological aspects:

Patents recently issued to Google provide a window into their development activities. While it’s no guarantee of a future product, it is a sure indication of what’s of interest to them. What we’ve given up in privacy to Google, Facebook, and others thus far is minuscule compared to what is coming if these companies get their way. These patents tell us that Google is developing smart-home products that are capable of eavesdropping on us throughout our home in order to learn more about us…So clearly they want to monitor us and report back what we are doing… But there’s even more.

Atlantic notes: “A second patent proposes a smart-home system that would help run the household, using sensors and cameras to restrict kids’ behavior. Parents could program a device to note if it overhears ‘foul language’ from children, scan internet usage for mature or objectionable content, or use ‘occupancy sensors’ to determine if certain areas of the house are accessed while they’re gone— for example, the liquor cabinet. The system could be set to ‘change a smart lighting system color to red and flash the lights’ as a warning to children or even power off lights and devices if they’re grounded…If you think our privacy is compromised now, just wait. Until there’s some legislation passed to protect our privacy, there’s no stopping companies such as Google and Facebook from learning everything about what we do and who we are and selling the information to advertisers, insurance companies, and eventually, any entity that will pay. After all, that’s their business model.”

Photo: Shanghai, where much official Chinese internet technology work is done  (Shanghai official website)

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Russia Continues Assaults on Ukraine

Moscow has again demonstrated both its overtly aggressive agenda, and its blindness (or lack of care) to global perspectives on its addiction to tyranny and belligerence of the worst kind.

Russian naval vessels attacked several Ukrainian vessels and captured three in the Black Sea off the Crimean Coast. Russia’s Federal Security Service alleges that the vessels crossed into Moscow-controlled zone. The region was invaded by Moscow in 2014 and subsequently annexed. In 2003, a treaty had designated the maritime areas, including the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov as shared territorial waters. However, Russian forces have, since 2015, asserted military control.

At the time of the initial invasion, The United States, then led by Barack Obama, failed to engage in any meaningful response other than relatively weak economic sanctions.   Krishnadev Calamur, writing in the Atlantic, explained: “Jeffrey Goldberg,The Atlantic’s editor in chief, wrote in the Obama Doctrine:  ‘Obama’s theory [was] simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.’”

In the aftermath of this month’s assault, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko rapidly called for the implementation of martial law. Russia’s Federal Security Service alleged that the vessels crossed into a Moscow-controlled zone.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reports that Ukraine promptly requested a meeting, which, under a NATO-Ukraine agreement, it may do so if it perceives a direct threat to its territorial integrity, political independence, or security, even though the nation is not a NATO member.

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The timing of Moscow’s latest aggression against Ukraine could not have been worse.  November marks the 85th anniversary of one of the worst crimes against humanity, known as the Holodomor. The Holodomorct historical organization explains: “The term Holodomor refers specifically to the brutal artificial famine imposed by Stalin’s regime on Soviet Ukraine and primarily ethnically Ukrainian areas in the Northern Caucasus in 1932-33.In its broadest sense, it is also used to describe the Ukrainian genocide that began in 1929 with the massive waves of deadly deportations of Ukraine’s most successful farmers (kurkuls, or kulaks, in Russian) as well as the deportations and executions of Ukraine’s religious, intellectual and cultural leaders, culminating in the devastating forced famine that killed millions more innocent individuals. The genocide in fact continued for several more years with the further destruction of Ukraine’s political leadership, the resettlement of Ukraine’s depopulated areas with other ethnic groups, the prosecution of those who dared to speak of the famine publicly, and the consistent blatant denial of famine by the Soviet regime.

“…at the height of the famine, people in Ukraine are dying at the rate of 30,000 a day, nearly a third of them are children under 10. Between 1932-34, approximately 4 million deaths are attributed to starvation within the borders of Soviet Ukraine. This does not include deportations, executions, or deaths from ordinary causes. Stalin denies to the world that there is any famine in Ukraine, and continues to export millions of tons of grain, more than enough to have saved every starving man, woman and child.”

To understand Moscow’s latest attack against the Ukraine, it must be remembered that Vladimir Putin is a product of the Soviet Union, which he regards fondly, the regime that committed the Holodomor and befriended the Nazi regime until Hitler chose to attack it.  We are seeing an unwelcome rebirth of the mindset that spawned the Second World War and all the horrors that went with it.

Photo: Starving children during HOlodomor. Memorial Holodomor.org

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Priorities for The New Congress, Part 4

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has reviewed, over the past several days, the key issues facing the incoming Congress. None, however, is more pressing than the diminished state of America’s armed forces, at a time when Russia and China are rapidly increasing their strength and gaining an advantage over U.S. forces in vital areas.

 Defense

There is a human tendency to ignore unpleasant facts, particularly those that deconstruct one’s view of reality.  The fact is, America’s national security is severely threatened in a way that even exceeds that which existed in both the Second World War and the Cold War. Never before has the United States faced a combined enemy with greater geographic, population, technological, economic and industrial resources.

Russia is now the globe’s strongest nuclear power.  China’s navy is larger in size and will soon be technologically equal to America’s. The combined might of the Russo-Chinese alliance, unburdened by the popular restraints against war found in most democratic nations, faces a U.S. military that is exhausted from the Gulf wars and Afghanistan, dramatically underfunded during the Obama Administration, and with an inventory of weapons that are aged and geared towards unsophisticated adversaries.

In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s demise, there was an unrealistic belief that no major power would arise to threaten the U.S. military. Francis Fukuyama, a distinguished political science, advanced a theory entitled “The End of History,” which many took to mean there would be no further great power conflicts.

While it is manifestly evident that events have clearly proved that concept dramatically incorrect, America’s armed forces were and are still funded and maintained as though the extraordinary military buildup and aggressive adventurism that both Moscow and Beijing have engaged in doesn’t exist.  While the Pentagon’s defense budget has been increased during the Trump Administration, the hike in spending has been woefully insufficient.

There is another facet to the dilemma. The U.S. defense industrial base, the collection of manufacturing companies and technological organizations vital to rebuilding and resupplying the nation’s armed forces have diminished sharply in number.  The once-powerful “arsenal of democracy” that helped win the wars of the 20th century (including the Cold War) no longer exist.  A prime example: only one plant in the entire country produces tanks, and the Obama Administration wanted to close it down.

Unfortunately, in the new technological era, even smaller nations can threaten America’s very survival. The most significant existential threat to the United States comes from a potential Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) assault.  In extraordinary testimony  delivered to the House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security, Dr. William R. Graham, Chairman, and  Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, chief of staff,  of the Commission to Assess the Threat to America from Electromagnetic Pulse revealed explosive details, including decades of neglect of the menace, how Russia transferred EMP technology to North Korea, and how North Korea already has the capacity to wreck devastation across the United States.
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The EMP Commission found that even primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons are such a significant EMP threat that rogue states, like North Korea, or terrorists may well prefer using a nuclear weapon for EMP attack, instead of destroying a city: “Therefore, terrorists or state actors that possess relatively unsophisticated missiles armed with nuclear weapons may well calculate that, instead of destroying a city or military base, they may obtain the greatest political-military utility from one or a few such weapons by using them—or threatening their use—in an EMP attack.”

What would be the result of an EMP attack?

The effects would be calamitous.  Without power, and without the means to move people and goods (an EMP would also render all trains, planes, and automobiles useless, since all those modes of transportation rely on both electronics and computer systems) or the means to pump water, the vast majority of Americans, estimates indicate approximately 90%, would die of starvation and thirst within a relatively short period of time. Those dependent on the miracles of modern medicine, including pacemakers and other devices, would face an even quicker death.  It would take decades to replace the destroyed power structure.

The federal EMP Commission warns that “The high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces… What is different now is that some potential sources of EMP threats are difficult to deter—they can be terrorist groups that have no state identity, have only one or a few weapons, and are motivated to attack the US without regard for their own safety. Rogue states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat to the United States, and may also be unpredictable and difficult to deter…Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century.”

Incredibly, despite the fact that it would take less than $10 billion to protect the power grid, (the technology is readily available and comparatively simple) neither Republican nor Democrat administrations have acted to address the threat. $10 billion would have been just a small fraction of President Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package, much of which was essentially wasted because the former president alleged that he couldn’t find “shovel ready jobs.”

Photo: Abrams Tank (U.S. Dept. of Defense)

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Priorities for The New Congress, Part 3

Although the new Democrat majority in the House of Representatives seeks to make investigations against President Trump a priority, more practical concerns need to take center stage.  The New York Analysis of Policy and Government has reviewed health care, education, and the economy. Today’s topic: Infrastructure.

Infrastructure

There is no area where more bipartisan agreement exists than that of repairing America’s crumbling infrastructure. Both parties, and most Americans, have taken note of the need to address the crisis.

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rates the nation’s infrastructure at only a D+.

ASCE notes: “Our nation is at a crossroads. Deteriorating infrastructure is impeding our ability to compete in the thriving global economy, and improvements are necessary to ensure our country is built for the future. While we have made some progress, reversing the trajectory after decades of underinvestment in our infrastructure requires transformative action from Congress, states, infrastructure owners, and the American people. Our nation’s infrastructure challenges are significant but solvable. Through strategic, sustained investment, bold leadership, comprehensive planning, and careful preparation for the needs of the future, America’s infrastructure will be improved and restored. For the U.S. economy to be the most competitive in the world, we need a first-class infrastructure system—transport systems that move people and goods efficiently and at reasonable cost by land, water, and air; power transmission systems that deliver reliable, low-cost power from a sustainable range of energy sources; and water systems that protect public health. To achieve this, leaders on both sides of the political aisle need to make good on promises they have made to improve our nation’s infrastructure and ensure these pledges don’t fall by the wayside after each election cycle.”

Business Insider notes that a repair backlog of about $90 billion exists on mass transit facilities. ASCE notes that over 55,000 bridges are structurally deficient.

There has been inadequate attention paid to the restoration of neglected freight lines, which if restored, could dramatically reduce road congestion and the resulting air pollution. Some urban areas, such as New York City, have less rail freight access than existed in the early 20th Century.

But can work on this begin in 2019? From the potholed roads and overaged bridges of the Northeast to the worrisome levees of New Orleans and the inadequate mass transit of California, the United States is in urgent need of infrastructure upgrade and repair. That’s only part of the problem. The nation’s electrical grid, currently unprotected, could be wiped out by an EMP attack originating from either an attack or a natural solar event.

The other causes may be a viral infection and this needs soft tabs viagra to be handled before it becomes serious. ED as the side effect of other medication: You have to take a great care of having the medicine including its effects. cialis 25mg Cheap Kamagra For free cialis no prescription World Class ED Therapy It has been the most reliable solution to deal with erotic disturbances caused due to male impotence. Researchers found that weight loss improves the sexual function in about 80 percent of participants later to 2 month period. 92 percent had their erection cialis sale ability boosted in about three months. In 2017, The Trump Administration proposed an infrastructure package, totaling $1 trillion, much of which would be financed by the private sector.

Standing in the way of addressing the challenge is the national debt, which doubled under President Obama and now exceeds $20 trillion. Despite Washington’s record high intake of revenue recently, additional annual deficits are still being added.

Far too often, infrastructure funding from both Washington and the states is not used efficiently. Ill-conceived or executed projects, such as California’s rapid rail project, is a prime example.

Some rapid-rail projects that fail to take into account expense factors have cost taxpayers extraordinary sums while accomplishing little. Robert Samuelson, writing in the Washington Post, notes: “Somehow, it’s become fashionable to think that high-speed trains connecting major cities will help ‘save the planet.’ They won’t. They’re a perfect example of wasteful spending masquerading as a respectable social cause. They would further burden already overburdened governments and drain dollars from worthier programs…” A Congressional Research Service report found that these types of efforts face many challenges, and urged Congress to consider whether they are worthwhile investments.

The tendency to divert funding from urgent needs to pork-barrel projects, and the “featherbedding” by both politically-connected unions and companies adds to the challenge. Political animosity occasionally stands in the way of truly necessary endeavors.  One example: the need for an additional underwater tunnel from the U.S. mainland to New York City has become a skirmish in the wider war between Rep. Jerry Nadler, who advocates the project, and President Trump, whom Nadler seeks to impeach.

Our review concludes tomorrow.

Photo: 19th Century rail station Duchess County Fair (AANM)

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Foreign Policy Update

The International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women

Violence against women is a global issue that affects millions of people annually. Every woman and girl deserves a life free from violence. The United States is committed to advancing gender equality and preventing and responding to all forms of violence against women and girls, from domestic and sexual violence to forced marriage and so-called honor killings.

Eliminating violence against women and girls requires all of us—governments, the private sector, civil society, and faith-based organizations—to take action. To help bring attention to this global challenge, the United States is proud to observe the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women on November 25 and the accompanying 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence.

The United States is proud to take action on “Ending Gender-Based Violence in the World of Work,” this year’s theme for the 16 Days of Activism. Societies that empower women to participate fully in civic and economic life are more prosperous and peaceful. Ending violence within and beyond the workplace can ensure women unlock their potential as leaders, entrepreneurs, and innovators. The United States is committed to bringing workforce development and skills training to women and girls, advancing women’s entrepreneurship and expanding access to capital, and eliminating gender discrimination in the workplace.

Marking the 85th Anniversary of the Ukrainian Holodomor

This month The United States join Ukrainians around the world in marking the 85th anniversary of the Holodomor, when millions of innocent Ukrainians were deliberately starved to death by the regime of Josef Stalin. The Soviet Union’s barbaric seizure of Ukrainian land and crops was undertaken with the deliberate political goal of subjugating the Ukrainian people and nation. This catastrophic man-made famine was one of the most atrocious acts of the twentieth century and a brutal reminder of the crimes of communism.

Today, Ukrainians are once again dying as a result of Russia attempts to destroy the identity and Western aspirations of the people of Ukraine. Russia’s ongoing aggression in eastern Ukraine has resulted in more than 10,000 deaths. However, Russia will not vanquish the resilient Ukrainian spirit, nor dampen Ukrainians’ desire for a better future.
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As we remember the Holodomor’s millions of innocent victims, we reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the Ukrainian people’s right to chart their own course.

Attacks in Orakzai and Karachi, Pakistan

The United States condemns in the strongest terms today’s terrorist attacks in Orakzai and Karachi, Pakistan, which killed over 30 people and injured dozens more. We send our deepest condolences to the victims’ families and wish for the speedy recovery of those injured. We also commend the Pakistani security forces’ quick and brave response to the attack on the Chinese Consulate in Karachi that prevented further loss of life. The United States stands with the Pakistani people in the face of these terrorist acts, and will continue to seek opportunities to cooperate with the Pakistani government to combat these threats in the region.

 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Priorities for the New Congress, Part 2

Will the newly elected Congress overcome partisan bickering and address crucial needs? Yesterday, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government reviewed health care and the economy.  Today, we look at the growing Education crisis.

Education

One of the most fundamental requirements for the future success of the United States is the development of a well-educated generation, competitive with global peers.  This is not happening. Our failing school system is producing students who are disturbingly deficient in both science and language skills, as well as being ignorant of their own nation’s history and structure.

The federal government has been steadily increasing its role in education, states have been spending more, and the results have not been beneficial. The Wall Street Journal notes that the U.S. rates a dismal 27th place in education among developed nations. The U.S. Dept. of Education reports that “Today, the United States has one of the highest high school dropout rates in the world. Among students who do complete high school and go on to college, nearly half require remedial courses, and nearly half never graduate.”

The Foundation for Economic Education reports that “Examining the full picture, data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Department of Education shows that inflation-adjusted government spending on higher education increased by 23 percent from 2008 to 2016, hitting a record high of $183 billion in 2016. On a per-student basis in the same period, this spending increased by 16 percent and also reached an all-time high of more than $9,000 per student.”

The same goes for tuition.  A CNBC analysis  reveals the huge jump.

Private nonprofit four-year institution:

  • Tuition for 1987-1988: $15,160
  • Tuition for 2017-2018: $34,740

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Public four-year institution:

  • Tuition for 1987-1988: $3,190
  • Tuition for 2017-2018: $9,970

Despite all that extra spending, students are not doing well. A Brookings study revealed that:

“Learning has stagnated…For the nation’s 17-year-olds, there have been no gains in literacy since the National Assessment of Educational Progress began in 1971. Performance is somewhat better on math, but there has still been no progress since 1990. The long-term stagnation cannot be attributed to racial or ethnic differences in the U.S. population. Literacy scores for white students peaked in 1975; in math, scores peaked in the early 1990s. Education productivity growth for U.S.  education has been particularly weak. International literacy and numeracy data from the OECD’s assessment of adult skills confirms this troubling picture. The numeracy and literacy skills of those born since 1980 are no more developed than for those born between 1968 and 1977. For the average OECD country, by contrast, people born between 1978 and 1987 score significantly better than all previous generations. Comparing the oldest—those born from 1947 to 1957—to youngest cohorts—those born from 1988 to 1996, the U.S. gains are especially weak. The United States ranks dead last among 26 countries tested on math gains, and second to last on literacy gains across these generations. The countries which have made the largest math gains include South Korea, Slovenia, France, Poland, Finland, and the Netherlands. This weak performance is even more disturbing given that the U.S. spends more on education, on a per student basis, than almost any other country. So what’s going wrong?

“The sources of educational failure: For higher education, a major factor driving up costs has been a growth in the number of highly-paid non-teaching professionals. In 1988, for every 100 full-time equivalent students, there were on average 23 college employees. By 2012, that number had increased to 31 employees, with a shift toward the highest paying non-teaching occupations. Managers and professionals now outnumber faculty, who comprise just a third of the higher education workforce. To a large extent, rising costs have been absorbed by increased student borrowing, subsidized by the federal government, and supplemented through grant aid.”

Gerard Robinson, writing for the American Enterprise Institute  notes: “…a look back at the progress we’ve made under reformers’ traditional response to fixing low-performing schools – simply showering them with more money – makes it clear that this approach has been a costly failure…”

The diminished emphasis on basic subjects, and the increased use of educational institutions for politically-biased indoctrination must be addressed.

Our Review continues Tomorrow.

Photo: A 19th Century school  house, Duchess County Fair  (AANM)

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Quick Analysis

Priorities for The New Congress

The 2018 midterm elections are over, and it’s time for Congress to get to work.  America faces significant, and in some cases urgent, challenges both at home and abroad.

There is a worrisome possibility that addressing the nation’s pressing needs will take a backseat to politics.  Democrats’ fury over losing the 2016 presidential election continues to divert their attention away from issues that are truly essential to the citizenry, and towards partisan tactics, including endless investigations into frequently unfounded allegations.

There is also bipartisan blindness on any number of issues, as Washington’s long-standing and unfortunate inability to grasp Mainstreet concerns continues.

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government reviewed five key issues that Congress should rapidly work on.  First up: Health Care, and the Economy.

Healthcare

There will be a great deal of emphasis on fixing healthcare issues, some of which have existed for decades and some of which arose or worsened under the Obamacare legislation. Extensive debate about topics such as affordability, especially coverage for pre-existing conditions, can be expected.

There will be no easy answers to all this, and no viable international examples to follow.  Medical care in countries with nationalized health care is even worse.

There are common sense approaches to improving medical care and reducing costs. Major steps would include:

  • End limitations on allowing insurance companies to compete across state lines. This can dramatically lower costs.
  • Enact tort reform to limit nonsense law suits and drive down the costs of practicing medicine. A key factor that drives costs up and diminishes the timeliness and quality of care: The battery of unnecessary, costly and repetitive tests patients frequently undergo, not for their own benefit but for the concerns of medical practitioners and institutions’ lawsuit avoidance. Tort reform to address this will be difficult, as lawyers’ organizations are among the most powerful lobbyists.
  • Mandate more transparency in billing practices, particularly from hospitals. Nebulous and often faulty billing practices add a whole additional layer of consternation. Strict standards of transparency and “plain English” billing should be mandated.
  • Allow physicians’ assistants and registered nurses to do far more.
  • Permit greater flexibility and choice in health insurance policies.
  • End excessive and costly red tape preventing new medications and treatments from gaining approval for use.

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An additional but often ignored challenge is the dismal level of customer service when dealing with medical institutions. In no other endeavor would the long waiting times both to get appointments and in doctor’s offices, particularly specialists, be tolerated. Further, the growing trend of sharply limiting the opportunity for patients to speak to their physicians for more than a few seconds is harmful. As crucial as it is, medicine is a service industry. Developing additional spaces for qualified applicants to medical schools should be a priority in the effort to remedy this.

The Economy

Both Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy successfully sparked and significantly improved the economy through tax cuts.  President Trump has been the latest example. Not only should attempts to undo his tax cuts be repulsed, but further tax cuts should be enacted.

Middle income families have been downtrodden for far too long, particularly since President Clinton gave China greater access to the American marketplace, resulting in the loss of about 66,000 U.S. manufacturing plants.  It’s time that China and other nations treated America fairly.

It is not a violation of the concept of free trade to demand that U.S. companies be afforded the same opportunity to compete overseas as other nations are given in America.   Disunity within Congress could threaten progress by emboldening adversaries such as China that opposition to the White House will result in a softening of resolve to confront the issue.  A more united stance on the Trump Administration’s attempt to finally address the unfair trade policies that have hampered the American economy for far too long would lead to greater results.  Ironically, a key Democrat constituency, blue collar workers, stands to gain the most from Trump trade goals.

Finally, one of the key disincentives to starting or expanding businesses, especially smaller enterprises, is the dead weight of excess regulation.  Slash that red tape to the bare minimum necessary for safety, and let the American entrepreneurial spirit take flight.

Our review continues tomorrow.

Photo: National Park Service

Categories
Quick Analysis

Freedom House Reports on Digital Authoritarianism

Freedom House has released its latest report on internet freedom, written by Adrian Shahbaz. Due to its extraordinary importance, we summarize its findings here:

Freedom on the Net 2018

The Rise of Digital Authoritarianism

The internet is growing less free around the world, and democracy itself is withering under its influence.

Disinformation and propaganda disseminated online have poisoned the public sphere. The unbridled collection of personal data has broken down traditional notions of privacy. And a cohort of countries is moving toward digital authoritarianism by embracing the Chinese model of extensive censorship and automated surveillance systems. As a result of these trends, global internet freedom declined for the eighth consecutive year in 2018.

Events this year have confirmed that the internet can be used to disrupt democracies as surely as it can destabilize dictatorships.

With or without malign intent, the internet and social media in particular can push citizens into polarized echo chambers and pull at the social fabric of a country, fueling hostility between different communities.

As democratic societies struggle with the challenges of a more dangerous and contested online sphere, leaders in Beijing have stepped up efforts to use digital media to increase their own power, both at home and abroad. China was once again the worst abuser of internet freedom in 2018, and over the past year, its government hosted media officials from dozens of countries for two- and three-week seminars on its sprawling system of censorship and surveillance. Moreover, its companies have supplied telecommunications hardware, advanced facial-recognition technology, and data-analytics tools to a variety of governments with poor human rights records, which could benefit Chinese intelligence services as well as repressive local authorities. Digital authoritarianism is being promoted as a way for governments to control their citizens through technology, inverting the concept of the internet as an engine of human liberation.

Throughout the year, authoritarians used claims of “fake news” and data scandals as a pretext to move closer to the China model. Governments in countries such as Egypt and Iran rewrote restrictive media laws to apply to social media users, jailed critics under measures designed to curb false news, and blocked foreign social media and communication services. China, Russia, and other repressive states are also demanding that companies store their citizens’ data within their borders, where the information can be accessed by security agencies.

Democracies are famously slow at responding to crises—their systems of checks and balances, open deliberation, and public participation are not conducive to rapid decision-making. But this built-in caution has helped some semidemocratic countries fend off authoritarian-style internet controls over the past year.

Securing internet freedom against the rise of digital authoritarianism is fundamental to protecting democracy as a whole.

If democracy is to survive the digital age, technology companies, governments, and civil society must work together to find real solutions to the problems of social media manipulation and abusive data collection.

Tracking the Global Decline

Of the 65 countries assessed, 26 have been on an overall decline since June 2017, compared with 19 that registered net improvements. The biggest score declines took place in Egypt and Sri Lanka, followed by Cambodia, Kenya, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Venezuela.

 

Of the 19 countries with overall score improvements, two—Armenia and the Gambia—earned upgrades in their internet freedom status.

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS

China remakes the world in its techno-dystopian image

[O]ver the last two decades, [China’s] “Great Firewall” has grown into an alarmingly effective apparatus of censorship and surveillance. This year, Beijing took steps to propagate its model abroad by conducting large-scale trainings of foreign officials, providing technology to authoritarian governments, and demanding that international companies abide by its content regulations even when operating outside of China. These trends present an existential threat to the future of the open internet and prospects for greater democracy around the globe.

THE CHINA MODEL AT HOME

Internet controls within China reached new extremes in 2018 with the implementation of the sweeping Cybersecurity Law and upgrades to surveillance technology. The law centralizes all internet policy within the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), strengthens obligations for network operators and social media companies to register users under their real names, requires that local and foreign companies work to “immediately stop transmission” of banned content, and compels them to ensure that all data about Chinese users is hosted within the country. The Cybersecurity Law has been followed by hundreds of new directives—an average of nearly one every two days—to fine-tune what netizens can and cannot do online. Among other steps, authorities have cracked down on the use of VPNs to circumvent the Great Firewall, leading Apple to delete hundreds of the services from its local app store.

One of the most alarming developments this year has been the uptick in state surveillance. In the western region of Xinjiang, home to the country’s Uighur Muslim minority, facial recognition technology and other advanced tools are being used to monitor the local population and thwart any actions deemed to harm “public order” or “national security.” Leaked documents and other evidence revealed in August suggested that as many as a million Muslims may be held in internment camps in Xinjiang, where they endure a “reeducation” process meant to forcibly indoctrinate them. Many detainees are held as a result of their nonviolent online activities.

The abuses in Xinjiang foreshadow the impact of the nascent nationwide Social Credit System, which rates citizens’ “trustworthiness” by combining data on their online and offline behavior.

A NEW FLAIR FOR EXPORTING THE MODEL UNDER XI

Speaking at the Chinese Communist Party Congress in October 2017, President Xi Jinping publicly outlined his plan to transform China into a “cyber superpower.” He offered up the country’s model of governance—including its management of the internet—as “a new option for other countries and nations that want to speed up their development while preserving their independence.” But rather than simply leading by example, this year Beijing took major steps to establish its standards and practices around the world, in keeping with a detailed vision outlined not only in Xi’s past speeches but also in party policy journals.

One key avenue for China’s multifaceted expansionism is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar international development strategy focused on infrastructure projects that enhance Chinese trade and influence in the host countries. The BRI includes a “digital Silk Road” of Chinese-built fiber-optic networks that could expose internet traffic to greater monitoring by local and Chinese intelligence agencies, particularly given that China is determined to set the technical standards for how the next generation of traffic is coded and transmitted. To this end, China has organized forums where it can impart its norms to authoritarian-leaning governments, like the 2017 World Internet Conference in Wuzhen.

CHINA’S CHARM OFFENSIVE AGAINST INTERNET FREEDOM

As part of its multilateral efforts, Beijing is cultivating media elites and government ministers around the world to create a network of countries that will follow its lead on internet policy. Chinese officials have held trainings and seminars on new media or information management with representatives from 36 out of the 65 countries covered in this survey.

CHINESE COMPANIES UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT

Chinese companies are playing a prominent role in the country’s push for telecommunications dominance, having installed internet and mobile network equipment in at least 38 countries. Some of these firms are private enterprises and may have their own reasons for making such investments, but all are also beholden to the government and its strategic goals. State-owned China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile are laying down the digital Silk Road, with fiber-optic links to Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, and Nepal, among other countries.

Chinese firms have also provided high-tech tools of surveillance to governments that lack respect for human rights.

As more of the world’s critical telecommunications infrastructure is built by China, global data may become more accessible to Chinese intelligence agencies through both legal and extralegal methods

Such incidents have led to greater scrutiny of Chinese companies in democracies. In August, the United States banned government agencies and contractors from using certain products from Huawei, ZTE, and several other Chinese technology firms. Testifying before the Senate, US intelligence chiefs had warned citizens against using Huawei and ZTE products, with Federal Bureau of Investigation director Christopher Wray stating his deep concern “about the risks of allowing any company or entity that is beholden to foreign governments that don’t share our values to gain positions of power inside our telecommunications networks.” Australia also banned local providers from purchasing 5G equipment from Huawei and ZTE and instructed military personnel not to use WeChat on their mobile phones due to security concerns.

HOW DEMOCRACIES CAN PUSH BACK

Democracies have a number of options for slowing China’s techno-dystopian expansionism, from tightening import and export controls to imposing sanctions on tech companies that enable human rights abuses. They can also help defend their own companies from demands to participate in China’s Social Credit System or otherwise comply with antidemocratic standards and practices.

Citizens can also hold companies accountable for compromising their commitments to democratic values for the sake of access to China’s lucrative market. In an internal company letter from August, some 1,400 Google employees called for greater transparency after media reports revealed plans to launch a censored search and mobile news service in China, in which users’ activity would be linked to their telephone numbers. Similar internal pressure in June led the company to reevaluate its work with the US Defense Department in the field of artificial intelligence; chief executive Sundar Pichai publicly pledged not to pursue AI applications, including surveillance tools, that are likely to cause harm or contravene “widely accepted principles of international law and human rights.”

As China strives to become an AI powerhouse by 2030, the moral and ethical concerns surrounding the technology deserve greater attention. Like nuclear science, AI will inevitably fall into the hands of governments that seek to use it for authoritarian ends. Democracies will face temptations as well, given the appeal of AI applications for everything from e-commerce to national security. Ensuring that government agencies and private companies abide by ethical codes will require constant vigilance by civil society, investigative journalists, and official oversight bodies, the last of which may play a key role in preventing the transfer of advanced technology that can be used for both benign and malign purposes to countries like China.

But the best way for democracies to stem the rise of digital authoritarianism is to prove that there is a better model for managing the internet. This entails tackling social media manipulation and misuse of data in a manner that respects human rights, while preserving an internet that is global, free, and secure. Democratic governments will have to devote much greater diplomatic and other resources to countering China’s charm offensive on the international stage. More governments are turning to China for guidance and support at a time when the United States’ global leadership is on the decline, and the acquiescence of foreign companies to Beijing’s demands only emboldens the regime in its effort to rewrite international rules in its favor. If democracies fail to advance their own principles and interests with equal determination, digital authoritarianism will become an inescapable reality almost by default.

MAKING EVERYONE A JOURNALIST, IN COUNTRIES WHERE JOURNALISM IS A CRIME

A number of governments are moving to regulate social media users as media outlets in order to legitimize further crackdowns on online speech. Russia pioneered these tactics with a 2014 law that required the registration of blogs with over 3,000 monthly visitors as media outlets. The Russian law also made bloggers liable for the “accuracy” of their content, in a legal environment where criticism of the government is often deemed false or extremist.

JAILING DISSIDENTS FOR SPREADING FALSE NEWS

Many governments are enforcing criminal penalties for the publication of what they deem false news. In 2018, 13 countries prosecuted citizens for spreading false information.

Authoritarian leaders have targeted entire news organizations under the guise of combating fake news

SHUTTING DOWN INTERNET ACCESS

While more repressive governments tend to use false news and hate speech as an excuse to curb dissent or independent reporting, inflammatory lies on social media remain an urgent problem in many countries, and some have responded by cutting off access entirely.

OUTSOURCING CENSORSHIP TO SOCIAL MEDIA COMPANIES

Even in democracies with a high level of digital literacy, it is often hard to distinguish between trusted sources from one’s own community and information created by a fake-news factory.

Some democracies have increased companies’ legal liability for third-party content appearing on their platforms, hoping that this will force them to police illegal speech.

THE PROMISE OF BROAD COLLABORATION TO COUNTER DISINFORMATION

More constructive solutions arise out of collaboration among civil society groups, governments, and tech companies. Italian lawmakers have partnered with journalists and tech firms to pilot a nationwide curriculum on spotting online manipulation. In the US, several states have passed or proposed laws to increase media literacy programs in local schools. The civic education initiatives include efforts to teach students to evaluate the credibility of online media sources and identify disinformation. Many of the laws require state education officials to engage with media literacy organizations in the creation of their curriculums, and are based on model legislation backed by civil society experts. WhatsApp, which is owned by Facebook, is working together with seven organizations in India to draft a digital literacy training program for its users.

Social media companies are also working with civil society to identify disinformation on their platforms.

For democracy to thrive, citizens must have freedom of expression and access to a public forum that allows rational discourse. Protecting the digital commons from manipulation without harming human rights will require innovation and increased investments from states, tech companies, and civil society alike.

Authorities demand control over personal data

In many ways, the internet erases borders. But as governments recognize the importance of the data flowing in and out of their countries, they are establishing new rules and barriers in the name of national sovereignty, allowing officials to control and inspect such information at will. Governments in 18 out of 65 countries have passed new laws or directives to increase state surveillance since June 2017, often eschewing independent oversight and exposing individuals to persecution or other dangers in order to gain unfettered access.

Some of these countries now require that tech firms store their citizens’ data on local servers, with the stated intention of either making the records more accessible to national security agencies or protecting them from theft or exploitation by others. China, Russia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Pakistan have already instituted data localization requirements. The government in India, home to the world’s second-largest population of internet users after China, has proposed similar rules on privacy grounds. Although the country scored a major victory for internet freedom when its Supreme Court ruled in August 2017 that Indians have a fundamental right to privacy, it has also been plagued by security breaches.

Russia took significant steps over the past year to increase data sovereignty. Lawmakers passed restrictions on virtual private networks (VPNs) in July 2017, ostensibly to prevent users from accessing banned sites that are hosted outside the country. A subsequent bill introduced this year includes fines for VPN companies that allow such access. Other new provisions from the past year require communication apps to register users under their real names, so that they can be identified by law enforcement agencies. And antiterrorism provisions that came into force in July require telecommunications firms and other companies to store the content of users’ online communications for up to six months, in addition to metadata, and provide the Federal Security Service (FSB) with unfettered access to both.

INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AFRAID OF GOING DARK

Though their motives and methods differ from those of the Kremlin, democratic governments are voicing their own determination to overcome encryption when national security is at stake.

THE PRIVACY POLICY UPDATE FELT AROUND THE WORLD

In response to fears about ubiquitous collection and the inherent insecurity of personal data, many countries are enacting legislation that grants individuals the right to control how their data are collected, processed, and shared by public and private entities. At least 15 countries considered data protection laws since June 2017, and at least 35 already have a data protection law on the books.

PROTECTING USER DATA ON A GLOBAL INTERNET

Governments, private companies, and researchers are increasingly hungry for large amounts of personal information, using it for purposes ranging from political repression to the development of artificial intelligence algorithms. Individuals often have few options for resisting this demand, short of disengaging from major aspects of modern life.

Rather than forcing users to make such a stark choice, governments and technology companies should strive to increase transparency regarding how personal data are used, enable data portability between platforms, and allow people to review and delete all data collected about them—steps that some of the largest companies have already taken.

Recommendations

FOR POLICYMAKERS

  • Ensure that all internet-related laws and practices adhere to international human rights law and standards.
  • Enact strong data protection laws to provide greater transparency and control over personal data.
  • Include human rights safeguards in national strategies on artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Fund rapid response capacity to counter attacks on internet freedom.
  • Impose sanctions—such as freezing of assets—on foreign tech companies involved in human rights abuses.
  • In the United States, reintroduce and pass the Global Online Freedom Act (GOFA).

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  • FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR
  • Adhere to the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.
  • Conduct human rights impact assessments for new markets and commit to doing no harm.
  • Grant users control over their information and ensure that it is not being misused.Companies
  • Ensure fair and transparent content moderation practices.
  • Engage in continuous dialogue with local civil society organizations.
  • Label automated “bot” accounts.
  • Use internal expertise to help counter Chinese state censorship and protect users.

 

  • FOR CIVIL SOCIETY
  • Partner with the private sector on fact-checking efforts.
  • Work with scholars to examine how disinformation spreads and why people are likely to share it.
  • Monitor home countries’ collaboration with Beijing and Chinese firms
  • Continue to raise awareness about government censorship and surveillance efforts.

Illustration:  Freedom House

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Quick Analysis

America’s Massive Foreign Born Population

The extraordinary growth in the proportion of the U.S. population not native born is producing unprecedented political pressure.

Census Bureau data recently released indicates that 13.7% of the U.S. population was foreign born in 2017, up from 13.5% in 2016. That is the highest percentage in over a century, since 1910.  Unlike that earlier wave of immigrants, there are expectations of many coming to the U.S. of expensive government assistance.

The Census Bureau also reports that since 1970, the foreign-born population has continued to increase in size and as a percent of the total population. They are also reproducing at an extraordinary rate. About 1 in 4 children under 18 in families have at least one foreign-born parent.

According to the Center for Immigration Studies, (CIS)  “In 2014, one in five births (791,000) in the United States was to an immigrant mother (legal or illegal). CIS best estimate is that legal immigrants accounted for 12.4 percent (494,000) of all births, and illegal immigrants accounted for 7.5 percent (297,000). The 297,000 births per year to illegal immigrants is larger than the total number of births in any state other than California and Texas. It is also larger than the total number of births in 16 states plus the District of Columbia, combined. The estimated 28,000 births to illegal immigrants in just the Los Angeles metro area is larger than the total number of births in 14 states and the District of Columbia. Among the nation’s largest metro areas, immigrants (legal and illegal) account for half or nearly half of births in Miami, San Francisco, and San Jose, Calif. They are two out of five births in Los Angeles and the New York City area. They are also one out of three births in the metro areas of Washington, D.C., Houston, San Diego, Seattle, Boston, and Las Vegas. Illegal immigrants account for more than one in seven births in the Los Angeles, Las Vegas, San Jose, Dallas, and Houston metro areas. Typically between two-thirds and three-fourths of these births are likely paid for by taxpayers.”

Breitbart notes that “There are nearly 300,000 children of illegal aliens born in the United States every year, exceeding the total number of U.S. births in 48 states.”

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The Gallup organization explains that, consequentially, the two parties differ sharply on their views of immigration. “Dissatisfaction with immigration among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic fell from 62% to 49% between 2012 and 2013 after President Barack Obama issued an executive order, known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which granted legal protections for immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally at a young age with their parents. Democrats’ dissatisfaction with the level of immigration dropped again in Obama’s final days in office in 2017 but rose sharply this year, climbing 16 percentage points to 50% in a Jan. 2-7 poll. Dissatisfaction among Democrats is roughly back to where it was between 2013 and 2016 but remains lower than it was under the George W. Bush administration.”

Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with immigration among Republicans and Republican leaners rose sharply from 72% in 2014 to its peak of 86% in 2016. The Trump campaign rode this wave of Republican frustration with immigration, making building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico to curb illegal immigration a central campaign tenet and a rallying cry during campaign events.”

Even counting noncitizens has become a political football. Migration Policy.org reports that “As the timeline for launching the 2020 decennial census approaches fast, legal and political controversy surrounds the Trump administration’s inclusion of a question on citizenship status. The question, which was dropped after the 1950 census, was reinstated on March 26, 2018 by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, whose department oversees the U.S. Census Bureau. Six lawsuits were quickly brought challenging reinstatement of the question.”

Photo: U.S. Census Bureau