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WNtions Seek Defense vs. Asteroids

The end of the world may be postponed, thanks to an international meeting that took place in January.

The Space Mission Planning and Advisory Group (SMPAG) http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Operations/Space_Situational_Awareness/Getting_ready_for_asteroids met in a forum hosted by the European Space Agency http://www.esa.int/ESA  to determine how best to protect our planet from a catastrophic asteroid strike.  Its specific mission is to coordinate expertise and capabilities for missions aimed at countering asteroids that might one day strike Earth.

SMPAG was formed by the United Nation’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space to develop a strategy on how to react to a future extraterrestrial collision. It will coordinate with space agencies across the world to develop a strategy in response to a collision between Earth and an impact with an extraterrestrial object.

According to the Association of Space Explorers Committee on Near Earth Objects, http://www.space-explorers.org/committees/NEO/2013/ASE_NEO_Defense.pdf “Asteroid impacts—an ongoing cosmic and geological process—have dramatically altered the course of life on Earth. A rogue asteroid will certainly strike Earth in the future, and such impacts pose a global threat to human life and society. Search efforts to date have discovered scarcely 1% of potentially hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs). Current telescopes were unable to warn us of the Feb. 2013 Chelyabinsk impact, which released 440 kilotons of explosive energy and injured more than a thousand people. Because near-Earth asteroid searches have focused almost exclusively on large objects with global destructive potential, 99% of the objects big enough to level a major metropolitan area remain undiscovered. As technology improves and hundreds of thousands of new asteroids are found, the global community will likely be confronted by one posing a worryingly high probability of striking Earth.”

 

The U.N. has been discussing the issue for approximately 14 years, beginning in 1995 when it’s Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) met in New York to bring the issue to the attention of member states.  In 2001, “Action Team 14” was established to improve international coordination of activities related to near-Earth objects.

Recommendations of the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects for an

international response to the near-Earth object impact threat http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/pdf/misc/2013/at-14/at14-handoutE.pdf

 

Introduction

 

Given the global consequences of a NEO impact and the enormous resources

required to prevent a collision, the UN has been seen as the forum to coordinate such

efforts. In 1995, the United Nations International Conference on Near Earth Objects

was held at UN Headquarters in New York. The Conference, organized by United

Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), sensitised Member States to the

potential threat of NEOs and proposed an expansion of existing observation

campaigns to detect and track NEOs.

 

The Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (Action Team 14) was established in

2001 by the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

(COPUOS), in response to recommendation 14 of the Third United Nations

Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE III)

that was held in Vienna in 1999, to improve international coordination of activities

related to near-Earth objects. Sergio Camacho, a former UNOOSA Director currently

serves as the Chair of AT-14.

 

The Action Team has been mandated to:

(a) Review the content, structure and organization of ongoing efforts in

the field of near-Earth objects (NEOs);

(b) Identify any gaps in the ongoing work where additional coordination is

required and/or where other countries or organizations could make contributions;

(c) Propose steps for the improvement of international coordination in

collaboration with specialized bodies.

 

The Action Team based its recommendations on the fact that many expert groups and

assets needed for this issue already exist. It recommends the formation of a warning

network and two advisory groups: an International Asteroid Warning Network

(IAWN), a Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG – pronounce ‘same

page’), and an Impact Disaster Planning Advisory Group (IDPAG).

 

The warning network

 

The IAWN would be a network of experts which would focus on discovery, tracking,

and the observation of NEOs. The goal would be to find objects as early as possible.

Observations are processed and orbit predictions and any potential impact warnings

are generated. The IAWN would also prepare public communications. In case of a

credible impact threat, IAWN would ensure that more information on these objects is

gathered expeditiously. IAWN would then also inform COPUOS and the Office of

 

 

Office for Outer Space Affairs, United Nations Office at Vienna, Wagramerstrasse 5, 1400 Vienna, Austria

Tel. (+43-1) 26060-0, Fax (+43-1) 26060-5830, www.unoosa.org

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astrodynamics experts, experts working on the characterization of asteroids and

modelling. No formal ‘group’ is needed, it is a network of existing experts and assets.

A steering group is proposed as a focus point for the IAWN. COPUOS would receive

yearly summary reports from the IAWN.

 

The advisory groups

 

The IDPAG would have as tasks to review lessons learned from other large-scale

disasters, prepare coordinated response plans and exercises to address both predicted

and unpredicted impact disasters. It would recommend and promote research related

to the topic. It would develop representative timelines and procedures for evacuations.

It is proposed that the IDPAG is formed by representatives of existing national and

international disaster response agencies. Its organisation would be initiated by the

IAWN and could be coordinated with other relevant international and national entities

(e.g. UN-SPIDER, UN-ISDR, OCHA)1

.

 

The SMPAG would combine the expertise of space-faring nations. It would

recommend and promote mitigation mission-related research and studies on an

international and cooperative level. It would develop and adopt a set of reference

missions. It would develop technical concepts and propose operational setups. It

would also develop applicable decision criteria and timelines. The SMPAG would be

a group of voluntary representatives of space-faring nations. The group would call on

support by technical experts and other relevant entities as needed. It would provide a

yearly summary report to COPUOS.

 

Response to a credible impact threat

 

In the case of an actual credible impact threat, the IAWN would provide all available

information and updates to COPUOS through the UN Office of Outer Space Affairs.

The IDPAG would work with disaster response groups in nations that would be

affected to prepare and coordinate civil protection plans. The SMPAG would

coordinate the space mission planning among space-capable nations. It is suggested

that COPUOS may choose to appoint an ad-hoc mitigation advisory group to work

together with the response teams.

 

 

It was a vast space-borne rock that plummeted into the Yucatan and wiped out the dinosaurs http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/147978-finally-confirmed-an-asteroid-wiped-out-the-dinosaurs  many millennia ago. There is no doubt that Earth will be the target of another such hit some time in the future—and that future can be anywhere from a few years to a few centuries from now.

Even much smaller asteroids could have a devastating impact, wiping out an entire city in a single blow.  The danger is real, and affects every nation on the globe.

NASA’s Near Earth Object (NEO) http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/faq/#purpose Program has spearheaded this area of space research, working to detect, track and characterize potentially hazardous asteroids and comets that could approach the Earth. With over 90% of the near-Earth objects larger than one kilometer already discovered, the NEO Program is now focusing on finding 90% of the NEO population larger than 140 meters. In addition to managing the detection and cataloging of Near-Earth objects, the NEO Program office is responsible for facilitating communications between the astronomical community and the public should any potentially hazardous objects be discovered. As of February 02, 2014, 10,685 Near-Earth objects have been discovered. Some 868 of these NEOs are asteroids with a diameter of approximately 1 kilometer or larger. 1454 of these NEOs have been classified as potentially hazardous.

 

The final report of NASA’s Asteroid Initiative was released in January.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/Asteroid-Initiative-WS-Final-Report-508.pdf

NASA’s Asteroid Initiative consists of two separate but related activities: the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), and the Asteroid Grand Challenge (AGC). NASA is developing concepts for the ARM, which would use a robotic spacecraft to capture a small near-Earth asteroid (7 to 10 meters), or remove a boulder (1 to 10 meters) from the surface of a larger asteroid, and redirect it into a stable orbit around the moon. Astronauts launched aboard the Orion spacecraft would rendezvous with the captured asteroid material in lunar orbit, and collect samples for return to Earth.

 

The AGC is seeking the best ideas to find all asteroid threats to human populations, and to accelerate the work that NASA is already doing for planetary defense. The Asteroid Initiative will leverage and integrate NASA’s activities in human exploration, space technology, and space science to advance the technologies and capabilities needed for future human and robotic exploration, to enable the first human mission to interact with asteroid material, and to accelerate efforts to detect, track, characterize, and mitigate the

threat of potentially hazardous asteroids.

Last month, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William J. Burns http://www.state.gov/s/d/2014/219501.htm , speaking at the International Space Exploration Forum, noted:  “…we can do much more to defend the planet from near-earth objects and space debris. We continue to work through the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space to deal with this challenge, and we are working with the European Union and other countries to develop an International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. We also would welcome international support for NASA’s Asteroid Redirect Mission, which, among other things, will help us learn how to better defend our planet from a catastrophic asteroid collision.”

Despite this planet-saving mission, NASA’s 2014 budget is the lowest since 2007.

Now, for the first time, national space agencies from North and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa will establish an expert group aimed at getting the world’s space-faring nations on the ‘same page’ when it comes to reacting to asteroid threats, working together to find and track dangerous asteroids, deciding what to do with them, and implementing a mission to protect the planet.

The latest evidence that asteroids pose a major threat occurred a year ago this week, when a previously unknown asteroid exploded high above Chelyabinsk, https://b612foundation.org/news/faq-on-the-chelyabinsk-asteroid-impact/  Russia, with 20–30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.  There was a brief period when the meteor appeared to glow brighter than the Sun. The shock wave produced by the asteroid as it hit the atmosphere caused numerous injuries and shattered windows.

If a possible strike by an asteroid is detected, an International Asteroid Warning Network would coordinate with space faring nations to prepare a response, including possible means of deflecting the threatening object away from the planet.