White House Foreign Policy Reversal Unlikely

The White House is making much of its decision to return one hundred tanks to Eastern Europe in response to Russian aggressiveness on land, sea and in the air on that continent. It is an emphatic statement on its extraordinarily foolish decision, earlier in 2014, to withdraw all U.S. tanks from Europe. It also glosses over the Administration’s failure to take the nonlethal step that could have truly halted Putin’s return to the Cold War: opening up American federal lands to energy exploitation, and ending the EPA’s war on coal. These acts, which would have also helped western consumers, would have essentially stopped the flow of funds Putin needs to continue expanding his massive armed forces.

This timid and minor reversal is deeply similar to the return of at least some American forces, mostly trainers, special forces, and Air Force missions, to Iraq to combat ISIS. Just as the withdrawal of American tanks was a factor in Moscow’s decision that it could safely conquer Crimea without fear of a western response, so too the premature withdrawal of American forces from Iraq directly precipitated the rise of ISIS.

Will the President, chastened by his complete and overwhelming foreign policy and military strategy failures across the globe, finally begin to reverse course? Currently, it appears that while some minor adjustments may be made, the likelihood of a thorough White House rethinking of its international and military strategies appears unlikely.

American forces are still scheduled to depart from Afghanistan, although more will be left behind than previously planned. Nevertheless, expect the Taliban, the architects of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, to make a significant comeback there as a result.

There is little that can be done to undo the absurd decision to depose Gaddafi, the Libyan dictator who had genuinely renounced both terrorism and his own nuclear program. His nonthreatening rule has been replaced by a state in danger of becoming an al Qaeda subsidiary.

The rapidly growing military influence of Russia in Europe, China in Asia, and Iran in the Middle East has been greatly facilitated by the White House’s reduction of funds for U.S. defense, its increasing estrangement from allies, and its reluctance to employ substantive diplomatic responses to threats.

Consider these examples:

Come January, as a result of the shrinking Navy, there will be no U.S. aircraft carrier on patrol in East Asia for the first time since World War 2 ended.
There has been no U.S. response to the growing influence of Russia, China, and Iran in Latin America.
The U.S. defense budget is still strained. A key result of that is the loss of key personnel.
The President still opposes implantation of an adequate anti-missile system.
The Administration has given Iran yet another extension in the nuclear arms talks, allowing that nation time to develop its atomic arsenal.
No firm response has yet been made to Russian and Chinese cyber-attacks on U.S. computer systems.
No significant protective measures of American electrical and computer infrastructure have been taken.

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The White continues to take positions which harm our allies, as it did to the United Kingdom in the New START talks, Poland in the ABM decision, and Israel in issues related to Palestinian negotiations.

Quick Analysis

Russian-Belarus Preparations for an Attack on the West

While Russia is celebrating May Day at home this week, it is also growing closer to breaching the threshold triggering a nuclear event in Western Europe. Military analysts in Washington consider the recent deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a political sign designed to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost flank. Alexander Taranov, of the Jamestown Foundation calls it “practical preparation for nuclear escalation.” Last week the Kremlin publicly repeated its threat of nuclear war against the West. It immediately followed the US Congress’ vote to provide $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Up for debate is whether Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads in Belarus is short-term preparation for their operational use. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly declared that increasing aid to Ukraine increases the threat of a direct military clash. From Moscow’s perspective, he points out, Ukraine is backed by three nuclear states, including the US, UK, and France. He uses it to justify the Kremlin’s moves in Belarus as Russia considers the situation a serious strategic risk. The nuclear environment in Europe is moving beyond simple rhetoric this spring. Russian-Belarus preparations for an attack on the West include war gaming a simulated nuclear event in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The operating assumption for the games is that the West is “morally too weak to respond with retaliatory strikes,” according to Taranov. The representative for national defense of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile’s United Transitional Cabinet and former commander of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (Brest), Valery Sahashchyk, says that the militaries are war-gaming and preparing for an attack on Lithuania. Last week the publication RIA Novosti suggested that the Kremlin may take matters into its own hands and that Russia is fighting a “long war” against the collective West and Ukraine. Just over a month ago, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) confirmed the establishment of a nuclear warhead storage facility near Asipovichy, Belarus, where, according to Taranov, the 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base is located. The 465th Missile Brigade is almost co-located and supplied with Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical missile (RMB) systems that are also known as TNW carriers. Pre-deploying tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) raises the potential that Russia could choose to use them should the war in Ukraine go badly this summer. Western powers are divided on how to view the Russian nuclear moves. Some military planners are arguing that the West needs to be prepared, despite the possibility that Putin is simply posturing and not preparing for war. Other Western commentators suggest it is only posturing since prior to the recent nuclear deployment in Belarus, Russia already had the capability to launch a strike in Eastern Europe using its modernized nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. Taranov points out that the Belarusian nuclear site is only modernized with added perimeter security and an access point and that “No underground bunker-type fortifications, designed for the long-term storage of TNWs… were built on the Belarusian base’s territory. Instead, the nuclear warheads were placed in one of the arsenals of the ammunition base, which also stores operational-tactical missiles for the Iskander-M system.” He says this co-location with their launch vehicles is an indication that a repair and maintenance base has been organized there to support and prepare the TNWs for operational use. Personnel on the site are likely tasked with fitting the nuclear warheads on the missiles. What makes this more concerning is that during a peacetime environment, the standard Russian practice is to store TNWs in a special bunker-type fortified facility while RMBs typically are located off base. Military procedures in the past called for moving TNWs off base to the TNW carrier and delivery vehicle site only after receiving an order or special command from: 1) the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, 2) the Minister of Defense, and 3) the Chief of the Russian General staff. Co-positioning marks a change in standard operating procedures that indicates the weapons are, essentially, in field-ready conditions. This reduces the time to place the nuclear warheads on the missiles. This “indicates preparation for operational use,” according to Taranov. There are additional signs that Putin is prepping for an escalation in the Ukrainian conflict. The Polish government says Russian Aerospace Forces are using Belarusian-based Kh-55 nuclear-capable cruise missiles with imitators of nuclear warheads against targets in Poland and Ukraine. This points to Russia’s practicing for at minimum of a tactical nuclear strike. The summer months may become very active in Europe if Putin sees it as an opportune time to act while the US is in the middle of a presidential election. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2) ICBM. Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Vitaly V. Kuzmin