What Happened in Russia – USA Gov Policy

The world fixated on Russia last weekend as events unfolded in Rostov. New-minted Russia watchers birthed novel scenarios to explain the “coup,” “mini coup,” “insurrection,” or whatever other name they proposed for the Wagner Group’s military march to Moscow. It is relatively simple to provide a chronological timeline. What is more challenging is to correctly identify the root cause of events in a secretive, strong-man regime, filled with experts in psyops and capable of great brutality. Even among trained Western intelligence analysts, there is disagreement over many of the details and, perhaps, even more so about what it portends for the future of the Russian Federation. Did Putin win? Did the world lose? Are Putin and the Russian Federation weaker now?

Many Western analysts suggest that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group mercenaries, has been upset with Putin for months over a lack of support for his troops and physical attacks killing them. To date, the only significant military advances into Ukraine have come from Wagner Group efforts. Putin appears distressed in recent months due to his loss of control over the actions of Prigozhin’s troops, while his official Russian Army remains less capable and weaker than the Wagner Group. There is also a debate over who in Moscow ordered the recent attack on a Wagner Group military site which Prigozhin says ended with 2,000 of his soldiers dead by Putin’s hand.

Many of Prigozhin’s men are former Russian Special Forces, while he recruited others directly from Russian prisons. Their brutality is legendary, but it isn’t a new scenario. The country’s history is full of ruthless leaders and their enforcers. Many are familiar such as Ivan the Terrible, Vladimir Lenin, and Joseph Stalin. There are many other similar, less well-known, figures like the “Ice Queen” Anna Ivanovna, and Lavrentiy Beria, director of the Soviet Secret Police, that fill the pages of Russian history books. Fear of Beria’s henchmen was so great among the general population that it kept a broken Russia from surrendering to the German Nazis in WWII.

The Russian Empire, Soviet Russia, and today the Federation, were all led a times by cruel characters that failed to govern well, with one proclaimed worse than the last. This is the norm across Russian politics and how it has operated throughout the ages. Prigozhin and Putin are cut from the same mold. The Sufi mystic and poet Rumi once wrote “This is strange business. You’re the strange business….” Applied to Russian politics is understandable to see how events appear out of kilter to those outside Moscow’s purview. For the Russian population, life goes on as it has through the millennium with cruel dictatorial leaders enforcing their will with force.

It may not matter in the long run that an insecure Putin and ill-tempered Prigozhin appear to be punishing the other this week for acts deemed unacceptable. What is different now than in earlier centuries is that a non-state actor was able to quickly conquer an area believed to be the location of nuclear missiles. This raises the ante from that of a typical internal leadership conflict, or even civil war, to a dangerous scenario in which the result could be a regional or global nuclear conflagration should weapons of mass destruction (WMD) fall into unstable hands. This lesson extends beyond the Russian Federation. Today there are Russian nuclear missiles stored, possibly in silos, in Belarus, the country where Prigozhin has taken refuge under the protection of his buddy President Alexander Lukashenko. Concern extends beyond the European continent. Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are paying attention to last year’s events in Russia and Ukraine. While Beijing may in the short run enjoy watching limited chaos erupt in Russia, it recognizes that events could morph into lessons for those opposing the CCP rule in China. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister flew to Beijing last weekend for talks, or perhaps, more accurately to get a “talking to.” The political temperature may be cooling for the moment but analysts in capitals around the world in the coming weeks and months should continue to ask “why it happened” and “what are the future implications?” Hopefully, some will look at the nuclear security issue instead of concern only over the political integrity of the Russian Federation.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay