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U.S. Balance of Trade Worsens

In what has become a trend for the Obama Administration, a serious problem has been given a deceptively positive spin.

Despite disturbing news that the U.S. Balance of Trade has again worsened, Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker ignored the overall deficit, overlooked the rise in imports, and focused on the smaller increase in exports, stating:

“The increase in February exports show that despite facing global headwinds, U.S. exporters remain committed to delivering their world-class products and services to consumers around the world…”

The Commerce Department revealed that the goods and services deficit—the U.S. Balance of Trade  has worsened yet again, to a degree even more than experts had anticipated.

The latest figures show that the trade deficit in February was the largest in six months at $47.1 billion, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January. Imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January, while exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January.

The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.9 billion to $64.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $17.7 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $10.8 billion, or 13.1 percent, from the same period in 2015. Exports decreased $20.5 billion or 5.5 percent. Imports decreased $9.7 billion or 2.1 percent.

The Reuters news agency had polled economists, who had incorrectly forecast the trade deficit rising to “only” $46.2 billion in February. “But when adjusted for inflation, the deficit rose to $63.3 billion, the largest since March last year, from $61.8 billion in January. The report joined data on consumer and business spending in suggesting that economic growth moderated further in the first quarter after slowing to a 1.4 percent annualized rate in the final three months of 2015. Growth estimates for the first quarter are currently below a 1 percent pace…exports of industrial supplies and materials were the lowest since March 2010. Capital goods exports hit their lowest level since November 2011. Petroleum exports fell to their lowest level since September 2010.”
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Trading Economics  reports that “In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Japan, Germany and Mexico.” Investopedia  notes that “The US’s trade deficit is not only larger than Germany’s surplus, it’s larger by an amount greater than the next largest trade deficit in the world, that of the UK.”

The problem has been growing for some time. In 2007, the St. Louis Federal Reserve has noted   that “For every dollar Americans spend on Chinese goods, Chinese spend 30 or fewer cents on American goods. China currently holds a total of $3.7 trillion in foreign reserves, mostly in U.S. dollars or U.S. government bonds. “

A Forbes analysis of why key government and financial figures haven’t moved to effectively address the crisis notes:

“Normally trade deficits are self-correcting because as the deficit grows the country’s currency usually begins to decline in price in the world market. … In the case of America this balance is not happening because many of our trading partners have figured out how to manipulate their currencies to keep the dollar value high so that they can continue to increase our imports. China and Japan are the biggest manipulators but Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Singapore and Malaysia are also currency manipulators…Why is the trade deficit largely ignored while everyone is more concerned about the federal deficit? Wall Street, the Multi-national corporations and the Obama Administration have adopted a policy of appeasement where foreign mercantilism seems to be irrelevant and attempts at balancing trade are ignored. It is as if the trade deficit is an open ended charge account that is simply an accounting summary that will never have to be paid back.”

In 2005, economist Paul Krugman warned: “We can run huge deficits for the time being, because foreigners— in particular, foreign governments— are willing to lend us huge sums. But one of these days the easy credit will come to an end, and the United States will have to start paying its way in the world economy.”

The bad news doesn’t end with trade numbers, or unemployment numbers.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  reports that “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1.”

Despite the trinity of bad news, including trade, unemployment, and GDP, combined with the astronomical increase in the federal debt during his tenure, there is no indication that President Obama is changing his fiscal policies.