U.S. Adversaries Hope for Trump Defeat

In his four years as President, Donald Trump has, to an unprecedented degree, taken on difficult and at times politically unrewarding measures aimed at enhancing U.S. national security and tackling trade and espionage endeavors that have harmed the American economy.

Those nations most affected by these initiatives, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran would like nothing more than to see the 45^th President replaced by a more traditional politician. The fact that all of Trump’s Democratic opponents favor non-confrontational, defense funding reduction policies make them all the more eager to do everything they can to get him out of office. Expect them to do everything they can to make 2020 as difficult as possible to attain that goal.

The president’s restoration of funds to America’s armed forces, his realistic policy towards Iran, his determination to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, his bid to slash Russian influence in Europe by replacing it as a major source of energy and, perhaps above all, his get-tough attitude towards China’s espionage and trade aggression have motivated those nations to do all they can to insure his tenure ends at a single term.

Expect Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran to do all that they can to harm Trump’s reputation in 2020. They will do so secure in the knowledge that the utterly left-wing biased American media, in their own bid to unseat the president, will print, broadcast, and upload all they can to end his presidency, without reviewing the critical goals of those four countries.

A Voice of America article noted that: “With North Korea signaling bigger provocations in 2020, some analysts worry the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, could overplay his hand and make a dangerous miscalculation, especially if Kim believes he can affect U.S. President Donald Trump’s reelection chances…The moves suggest an emboldened Kim believes he can hold out for a better deal, possibly because he sees Trump as weakened by impeachment and a tough reelection campaign that is set to enter a more intense phase.”

China’s potential gain from a Trump defeat is vast. Before the 45^th president took office, Beijing’s stunning record of intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices were met with little substantive resistance. The same could be said for its massive increase in conventional and strategic weaponry.

One example typifies the reluctance of prior administrations to met the challenges. During the Obama Administration, China blatantly invaded the Philippines’ offshore Exclusive Economic Zone, a move that was eventually condemned by the World Court at the Hague. Despite the long-standing ties between Washington and Manila, President Obama failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest. It was an unprecedented betrayal, and a green light for further PRC adventurism and aggression.

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Much the same could be said for Russia. During the Obama Administration, the U.S. did little beyond imposing relatively weak sanctions in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. Early in the former president’s tenure, the White House agreed to a nuclear arms deal that gave Moscow, for the first time in history, a lead in nuclear weaponry. China was left totally unrestricted.

It got even worse. In 2012, Obama, believing that his microphone was shut off, told Russia’s Dimitry Medvedev during a meeting in South Korea that he would be “more flexible” in reducing America’s missile defenses after the U.S. elections.

The most significant kowtowing towards Moscow was a side-result of the anti-energy producing policies espoused by the prior president, and his refusal to confront Russia’s use of energy to blackmail Europe.

The controversy over President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, and his imposition of tough sanctions on the Tehran regime was a total reversal from his predecessor. Obama championed the agreement, which, even if fully complied with, gave Iran the complete legal right to develop nuclear weapons by 2025. His administration sent, quite literally, pallet-loads of untraceable cash to the Mullahs. Overall, Obama’s policies were a significant tilt away from Israel and moderate Arab states and towards the extremists in Tehran. The Mullahs would like nothing more than to see Trump out of office.

Expect Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to engage in a number of endeavors meant to weaken Trump’s image going into the 2020 election.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

China’s Tech Targets

Chinese technology is changing and its leadership is using it, along with espionage, to challenge the West in a number of critical areas. The United States is only one of its targets. Previously, Beijing’s spies primarily sought Western technologies as a way to skip generations of develop cost and time to modernize its economy. Today, its acquisition of advanced technologies, and now also its indigenous development, makes the communist giant a threat to freedom-loving people everywhere. This week Nan Mulchandani, the CIA’s chief technology officer, said Director William Burns is preparing for an “infinite race” with Beijing for artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. He argues the US must pivot toward providing American spies with the latest transformative technologies to outcompete China. Mulchandani says this means updating everything the agency does “from operations to the analytic function, support functions and other piece there.” America, he suggests, needs to alter its thinking toward viewing this not as a race with a finite end point, but as an ongoing competition. Mr. Mulchandani predicted that the next area of competition would “be primarily a software war that is powered by something like AI” rather than hardware fueled by software. That competition, however, is not confined to simply acquiring critical technologies for use in the future. China is also challenging the US in space. China announced today it launched a groundbreaking mission to retrieve samples from the far side of the moon. The space capsule will arrive in four days and collect 4.4 pounds of moon rocks and regolith, or moon dirt. Beijing’s desire to one day become a space power and scientific force is for pragmatic purposes in 2024 a fait accompli. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, said during a NASA budget hearing this week, that “while the US remains the global leader in space exploration, we face increasing challenges internationally.” Referring to China’s space station, Lucas said: “We cannot allow China to become the front-runner in space exploration… There are too many consequences for our competitiveness, our national security, and our continued ability to explore space.” A new report released this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that the United States, to further its geopolitical interests and maintain a strong domestic economy, must approach every aspect of economic and trade policy through the lens of global technology competition. The Biden Administration’s approach, it says, discounts the landscape of competition between China and the US and may “jeopardize US advancements in emerging technologies… which could cede the advantage to China….” In particular, the report recommends that the US take action now because quantum and artificial intelligence (AI) need a federal policy to ensure the country can spur the entrepreneurship and R&D efforts foundational to the strength of the technology sector. As China’s Communist Party (CCP) becomes more hostile to the United States and other Western nations, its aggressive activities abroad expand and intensify. Chinese spy cases far outnumber those of Russia and every other nation. CSIS reports that since President Xi took over in 2012 there have been 224 incidents of spying. Estimates of the long -term economic, scientific, and national security cost to the US run into the billions and have “created immeasurable damage to national security with the theft of weapons technology, including nuclear weapons test data… China has added the theft of massive quantities of personal information, political coercion, and influence operations, to its espionage activities.” The CSIS reports says that 49% of incidents of spying in the US directly involved Chinese military or government employees, with private Chinese citizens accounted for 41%. In 29% of the espionage cases the person involved was attempting to acquire military technology, while in 54% of the incidents it was related to commercial technologies. Almost half of the cases involved cyber espionage, usually by state—affiliated actors. No matter where one turns today China is challenging the West, from the depths of our oceans to outer space. The United States cannot count on China to be a good global citizen and refrain from attempting to enforce its vision of world order with Beijing at the apex. The time is growing short for the West to take action. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.