Iran has launched its first military satellite into orbit, signaling a new era of threats from space. The nation, which openly and frequently calls for “Death to America” now essentially has the capability to utilize intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The Islamic Republic joins China, Russia and North Korea as a threat to America from above the atmosphere. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has provided a summary of the danger presented by these states. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government will present key parts of that report over the next three days.
Space-based capabilities provide integral support to military, commercial, and civilian applications. Longstanding technological and cost barriers to space are falling, enabling more countries and commercial firms to participate in satellite construction, space launch, space exploration, and human spaceflight. Although these advancements are creating new opportunities, new risks for space-enabled services have emerged. Having seen the benefits of space-enabled operations, some foreign governments are developing capabilities that threaten others’ ability to use space. China and Russia, in particular, have taken steps to challenge the United States:
• Chinese and Russian military doctrines indicate that they view space as important to modern warfare and view counterspace capabilities as a means to reduce U.S. and allied military effectiveness. Both reorganized their militaries in 2015, emphasizing the importance of space operations.
• Both have developed robust and capable space services, including space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Moreover, they are making improvements to existing systems, including space launch vehicles and satellite navigation constellations. These capabilities provide their militaries with the ability to command and control their forces worldwide and also with enhanced situational awareness, enabling them to monitor, track, and target U.S. and allied forces.
• Chinese and Russian space surveillance networks are capable of searching, tracking, and characterizing satellites in all earth orbits. This capability supports both space operations and counterspace systems.
• Both states are developing jamming and cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, and ground-based antisatellite missiles that can achieve a range of reversible to nonreversible effects. Iran and North Korea also pose a challenge to militaries using space-enabled services, as each has demonstrated jamming capabilities. Iran and North Korea maintain independent space launch capabilities, which can serve as avenues for testing ballistic missile technologies. The advantage the United States holds in space—and its perceived dependence on it—will drive actors to improve their abilities to access and operate in and through space. These improvements can pose a threat to space-based services across the military, commercial, and civil space sectors
Although the United States and the former Soviet Union dominated early space activities, space capabilities have proliferated over the past six decades as technological and cost barriers have fallen. These capabilities provide important support to many of society’s daily activities, including communications, navigation, financial transactions, and weather monitoring. As of 2018, over 1,800 active satellites are on orbit, which are owned and operated by over 50 countries and multinational organizations.1 Nine countries and one international organization can independently launch spacecraft: China, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, the United States, and the European Space Agency (from French Guiana).
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The number of objects on orbit—both active satellites and orbital debris—will continue to increase rapidly with the wider availability of lower cost, small satellites and with the prospect of large constellations consisting of thousands of satellites. The challenge of space congestion will grow, and actors will need better capabilities to track and identify objects and prevent collisions in space.
Space capabilities have become central to many military operations, including missile warning, geolocation and navigation, target identification, and tracking of adversary activities. The military and intelligence collection capabilities that government and commercial remote sensing satellites provide is reducing the ability of all countries to remain undetected while performing sensitive testing and evaluation activities or military exercises and operations.
Some actors are seeking ways to deny the effectiveness of the United States, having witnessed more than 25 years of U.S. military successes enabled by space capabilities.8 China and Russia, in particular, are developing a variety of means to exploit perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems and challenge the U.S. position in space.9 Iran and North Korea also have demonstrated some counterspace capabilities that could pose a threat to militaries using space-based services.
While China and Russia are developing counterspace weapons systems, they are promoting agreements at the United Nations that limit weaponization of space. Their proposals do not address many space warfare capabilities, and they lack verification mechanisms, which provides room for China and Russia to continue to develop counterspace weapons.10,11 The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction on orbit and on any celestial body and it prohibits using celestial bodies for military bases, testing, or maneuvers. 107 states have ratified the treaty, including the United States, China, North Korea, and Russia. Iran is one of 23 states that have signed, but not ratified, the treaty.
The Report Continues Tomorrow
Photo: Tech. Sgt. Michael Vandenbosch, 22nd Space Operations Squadron defensive counter-space operator, uses software to identify interference to a specific satellite at Schriever Air Force Base, Colorado (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Jonathan Whitely)