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The world’s nuclear arsenals

Russia now leads the United States in nuclear warheads, and China is the only nation known to have increased its total nuclear weapons stockpile in the past year, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI.)

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has also reported that Moscow has a ten to one advantage in tactical nuclear weapons.

While information from the United States was readily accessible for the study,   “Russia divulged nothing officially, except in bilateral contacts with the U.S…China revealed little about its arsenal” according to SIPRI.

The Brookings Institute reports thatRussia has an array of strategic modernization programs underway. It has launched the first three of what are planned to be eight Borey-class ballistic missile submarines, which carry the new Bulava SLBM. Russia is also deploying the SS-27 Topol-M ICBM and its multiple-warhead variant, the RS-24 Yars, and plans to begin deployment of the RS-26 ICBM in 2016. The Russian Air Force is developing a new strategic bomber, the PAK-DA, to augment or replace its Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95 Bear-H aircraft… the Russian military is developing the new Sarmat ICBM, which will reportedly be capable of carrying as many as ten-fifteen warheads. Too large to be mobile, the liquid-fueled Sarmat will be silo-based. Russian analysts have criticized the planned program as destabilizing, particularly in a crisis. They note that large, multiple-warhead ICBMs in silos present attractive targets for a preemptive strike. Indeed, the U.S. Air Force decision to download its Minuteman III ICBMs was driven in part by the calculation that a single-warhead ICBM in a silo would, in a crisis, offer a less inviting target.”

Russia also has an additional advantage: the U.S. has replaced multiple warheads on its missiles with single warheads.

Sputnik News  reports that “The United States and NATO are observing rapid improvements in Russia’s military technologies with increased concern, particularly as US technological advantages over potential adversaries decrease…”

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Worldwide, the total number of nuclear weapons is decreasing, largely due to bilateral agreements between Russia and the U.S., but modernization of atomic arsenals continues.

Worldwide, the totals of warheads are:

Russia: 7,500; USA: 7,260;  China: 260—3,000;  France: 300;  U.K.: 215; Pakistan: 100-120;  India: 90-110; Israel: 80;  North Korea: 6—8.

The reason for the wide range of uncertainty in China’s nuclear arsenal involves the unusual tunnels Beijing has constructed for its nuclear arsenal. According to the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission,  Does China only have 200 or so nuclear weapons? Perhaps. But if nuclear capable missile deployments is the current driver of how many nuclear weapons China has deployed, perhaps not. The Chinese, after all, claim that they have built 3,000 miles of tunnels to hide China’s missile forces and related warheads and that it continues to build such tunnels.10 If we can’t see all of the nuclear-capable missiles China might have, there’s a chance it may have more than we currently assume. If, in turn, the number of such missiles is a major driver of Chinese nuclear warhead deployments, the later number could be much higher than most assume.”

Iran may soon the nuclear club.  When it does so, it will have the means to deliver its weapons through technology from its space program and advanced missile technology.