The Russo-Chinese Strategic Relationship

Every four years, following a presidential election, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) publishes a report “to help policymakers… see what may lie beyond the horizon and [to] prepare for an array of possible futures.” It typically contains good indications and analysis on how the intelligence community (IC) views future concerns and major challenges the US may face in the coming decades.

Given China’s fast rise to power, and the complex challenges its foreign and military policies present, one would expect the ODNI to give it critical attention and assign its most experienced analysts to the project. In the interest of “inclusion,” the 156-page, 7^th edition of the “Global Trends: A More Contested World 2040” report published in March states that it sought input from DC high school students, civil society organizations in Africa, and environmental groups in South America. Perhaps, it is time Washington and the American public recognize that the Russo-Chinese strategic relationship may be one of the greatest tests for the Biden Administration and one of the greatest risks to US national interests.

Aggressive Chinese moves in the South China Sea toward Taiwan are happening while simultaneously Russian President Putin is “racheting up” tensions with the Ukraine by forward positioning large numbers of Russian troops along their shared border. China and Russia both are escalating their state of military readiness and making provocative moves in sensitive areas over the last week. Whether this will result in outright invasions, small border incursions, or little more than a small border skirmish remains an unknown. It looks like something is going to happen. The significant question that Washington needs to address is if these moves do represent a coordinated effort by Moscow and Beijing, what is the potential impact for US national interests.

William J. Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, testified before the US Senate Intelligence Committee last week “That [Russian] buildup has reached the point that it could provide the basis for a limited military incursion,” and “It is something not only the United States, but our allies have to take very seriously.” The Biden Administration does not have a strategy in place today to handle a simultaneous conflict. It should not come as surprise to American military planners. Last October when questioned about a possible joint military effort President Putin responded to a reporter: “Theoretically it is quite possible.” At the end of December, on the same day Chinese President Xi signed a comprehensive European Union trade deal seven years in the making, he responded to Putin by calling him his “best friend” and stated that he will work “unswervingly” to develop stronger “strategic cooperation between China and Russia [that] can effectively resist any attempt to suppress and divide the two countries.”

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Gabriel Gavin, writing in “The Diplomat” earlier this year suggested: “As convenient as friendly relations between the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai are, the threat that ties could run deeper in the face of political and economic conflict is their powerful attribute. If Moscow is forced to export less gas to Europe, it will export more to China. If Beijing feels naval tensions with the United States are rising in the South China Sea, greater coordination with the Russian fleet in the Sea of Japan is always an option.

During the last two weeks Putin has amassed over 40,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border. In the past week alone China flew 25 warplanes into Taiwan’s airspace. In total in 2020 China flew more than 250 sorties over Taiwan. Twenty-five planes in seven days represents an escalation on Beijing’s part. What is next? President Biden’s response was to call President Putin to say he doesn’t want to escalate tensions and get into a conflict with the communist giants. Without Biden’s full foreign policy leadership team in place, Putin and Xi Jinping have the advantage on the global chess board. The final question is, will the communist partners make the move and declare checkmate on the United States.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay