Countering China in the Pacific may be the greatest test of military strength and political willpower by democratic nations since World War II. The new three-way agreement among the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States [AUKUS], which initially formed a strategic defense alliance to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines, has expanded into a coalition working across the Indo-Pacific region to push back against the rising threat of an aggressive China. Former Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon addressed that threat this week at a US Naval Institute conference where he said the most remarkable thing about the agreement is the sharing of advanced technologies, including nuclear propulsion for submarines, and Canberra’s commitment “to an adversarial role with China,”, according to John Grady writing in USNI News.
AUKUS adds to other US Indo-Pacific defense agreements that include five formal treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia-New Zealand. During a CNN interview this week Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen acknowledged for the first time publicly that the United States has 32 troops on the ground in Taiwan training its military forces. While a mostly symbolic move it indicates the official return of US military to the island for the first time since the American Taiwan Defense Commanded ended in 1979. President Biden last week told a televised forum that the United States was ready to defend Taiwan against an invasion from China. But all is not as positive as it appears.
While it seemed to be good news for Taiwan and the other democratic states of the Indo-Pacific region, senior officials in the Biden Administration quickly exhibited a lack of political willpower when they immediately backed off the President’s statement of support for Taiwan.
Chinese officials in Beijing viewed the retraction as indicative of a lack of strong leadership by the United States and confirmation of the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to physically confront China should, or when, it decides to take back Taiwan. The White House retreat conflicted with statements by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that “Taiwan has become a democratic success story” and that the US is among many UN members who “view Taiwan as a valued partner and trusted friend.” Blinken added that “Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the UN system is not a political issue, but a pragmatic one.”
Mixed messages by senior Biden Administration officials have emboldened Chinese President Xi Jinping to move aggressively in the South China Sea. Over China’s National Day week at the beginning of October, Beijing sent a record number of 149 military aircraft southwest of Taiwan in strike group formations. As a warning to Taiwan and the West it also conducted beach landing exercises on its side of the Taiwan Strait. Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, defiantly told reporters that “Taiwan has no right to join the United Nations.” Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP have a long history of continuing to push their policy agenda hard until they hit a wall. So far, the Biden Administration is not building a wall. From China’s perspective there is no wall in sight.
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If Chinese military preparations for action against Taiwan continue to intensify the AUKUS alliance may be forced into a position that risks a major war in the Pacific. It could emerge from unintended consequences of interactions during exercises or a deliberate act of aggression by China. What is certain is that mixed messages coming from the White House increase the risk among a number of nuclear-armed states in the region. Washington needs to recognize China is no longer a weak, backward nation with barefoot doctors tending its sick. Just this week Chinese researchers announced their new supercomputer is one million times more powerful than its nearest competitor, Google’s Sycamore and that a second light-based machine takes one millisecond to perform a task that would take a conventional computer 30 trillion years. This is the reality of China in 2021. The Biden Administration and AUKUS must address the threat while the opportunity still exists.
Daria Novak provides updates on China each Friday
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