Stories about the war in Ukraine overwhelm the few articles written about Russia’s troubles in Armenia. One week ago on September 13, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, told the publication Asbarez that his country can no longer rely on Russia as a guarantor of its security. Few papers in the West covered the announcement outside of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty this week. Pashinyan’s statement is significant and follows the renewal of the heated conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to Emil Avdaliani of the Jamestown Foundation. Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus is waning. The Central Asian states are developing their own identities and multi-faceted interests that do not include responding to the Kremlin’s disruptive influences.
Putin’s war in Ukraine forms the demarcation point. It is changing trade relations and the geopolitical balance across the Central Asian states that were under the influence of Russia since the early 1800’s. Even the breakup of the Soviet Union did not alter Moscow’s strong influence as the region’s dominant outside power. Ukraine has emerged as a “long war” for Russia. It is draining the country’s resources, setting its economy and trade routes back years, and making it into a pariah nation unwelcome in the many capitals around the world. Where Russia once easily used a heavy hand with neighboring states, it now threads lightly as it seeks to maintain its position in the world.
“Moscow has become ever-more unpredictable in its foreign policy,” says Avdaliani. He points out that Putin has been more patient recently, in particular, with Azerbaijan as Baku holds a key position in Russia’s plan to expand the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). In June, Yunis Sharifli wrote in the Eurasia Daily monitor that “The INSTC is a multi-modal network of shipping, rail and road routes for moving freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe. As two of the most sanctioned countries in the world, both Russia and Iran are interested in finding alternative routes to diversify their export and import routes as well as circumvent Western sanctions.” In the Armenian capital, officials suggest that it cannot rely on the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to keep peace in the region.
In Georgia, Putin’s pushed the government in Tbilisi to try to enact a Russian style “foreign agent” bill aimed at levying barriers to international organizations registering and trying to work inside Russia. Widespread protests stopped its passage from official consideration in March. When Russia attempted to resume direct flights to Tbilisi, massive protests erupted in Georgia in May despite the Georgian government’s support of the arrivals. According to analysts familiar with the region, Turkish influence in both Baku and Tbilisi is expanding and intensifying in recent months. Ankara, says Avdaliani, is emerging as a central player in the advancement of the Middle Corridor. This area is a strategic region linking Asia and Europe. It runs through the Black Sea and eastern Turkey, connecting the Caspian Sea to Central Asia.
Iran is also becoming more active in the South Caucasus, further reducing Russia’s regional influence. Al Jazeera attributes the change to the regional power vacuum that developed at the end of the Second Karabakh War. It gave Tehran the ability to re-assert itself in Armenian affairs, while also providing Iran increased leverage with Azerbaijan in halting the further expansion of the Zangezur Corridor. This area is part of a strategic transportation route extending from Baku to Kars in eastern Turkey and passing through Armenian territory near the Iranian border. China is also making moves in the region and recently signed a strategic partnership agreement with Tbilisi to improve its access to Black Sea transit and trade. Beijing already was active in the construction of the strategic port of Anaklia in Georgia, among other infrastructure projects.
Russia is also losing prestige to Western states operating in Central Asia. The European Union (EU) is supporting Georgia’s European leanings and last December agreed to participate in a proposed project to run an electric cable along the bottom of the Black Sea, according to the EU. At the same time Brussels signed a new gas agreement with Azerbaijan and is now mediating the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks. With outside actors taking on more and important regional roles, Moscow’s once dominant influence is seen as dissipating not in the Central Asian states but also with its traditional allies like Armenia. As Russia vies for space in the now multi-aligned geopolitical space, and while in a weakened position, regional competition can be expected to expand to include serious challenges from China and Turkey. The impact of the war in Ukraine is being felt throughout the region and Putin is left with few choices about how to improve Moscow’s standing.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.