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The Impending Iran-Israel War

Iran’s leadership makes no secret of its very real goal of destroying Israel, or of its role in using the terrorist proxies it funds to do just that.  

The Washington Institute describes Tehran’s modus operandi:

“The Islamic Republic regards its commitment to the destruction of Israel as a long-term…Tehran emphasizes its ongoing effort to improve the capability of Palestinian, Lebanese, and Syrian resistance movements to face Israel. The main, immediate target is turning the West Bank into a solid base for military operations…The Iranians are bent on strengthening their influence in the Arab world, with a priority on achieving a land link from Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Such a link, once obtained, would allow Iran not only to beef up the resistance movements with Iraqi and Syrian militias, as well as volunteers from far away Afghanistan, but also to open the way to the ultimate introduction of Iranian troops to the lines of confrontation, especially on the Golan.”

Many observers note that the Iran-Israel confrontation has already begun. Jonathan Spyer, writing in the Wall Street Journal, reports that “Israel and Iran are at war. Israeli strikes in southern Syria, western Iraq and eastern Lebanon—and possibly even Beirut—confirm it. This war is a very 21st-century affair. For now it involves only small circles among the Israeli and Iranian populations. Parts of the air force, intelligence services and probably special forces are active on the Israeli side. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its expeditionary Quds Force and proxy politico-military organizations in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are engaged on behalf of Iran… There is a crucial difference between the Israeli and Iranian positions in this conflict. Iran’s involvement in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is deep, long-term and proactive. Tehran seeks the transformation of these areas into Iranian satrapies, and it has made considerable advances toward its goal. Israel’s involvement is entirely reactive, pushing back against Iranian domination and destroying the missile caches that bring it within Iran’s range. Israel has no interest in the internal political arrangements of Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, except insofar as these constitute a danger to Israel itself.”

Israel, despite the exceptional expertise and sophistication of its military, will eventually be hard pressed to overcome the vast numbers aimed at it by Iranian-supported adversaries. Benny Morris, writing in Haaretz provides an accurate outline of the challenge: “Hezbollah is said to have 130,000 rockets that could reach all of Israel, with Hamas possessing thousands of rockets that could cover southern and central Israel, including the Tel Aviv area. It is also said that, if war broke out, Israel could find itself fighting on two fronts, possibly even a third, the Golan Heights, where it would face an Iranian force made up of Revolutionary Guards and militias under Tehran’s control. And in the next war, thousands of rockets would land on Israeli population centers, and on strategic assets including the Haifa Bay industrial complex, power stations on the Mediterranean coast, ammonia tanks and airports and who knows what else, not to mention military bases, including air bases. Such a barrage could seriously disrupt air force operations and possibly also the mobilization assembly points and armored columns…”

Because Iran is increasingly close to Moscow, which seeks its own domination of the region both to have key access to warm water ports and more importantly to control the oil, (energy sales being the lynchpin of the entire Russian economy) any fight between Jerusalem and Tehran will necessarily lead to some degree of great power involvement.  The Trump Administration, which has been the staunchest ally Israel has ever had in the White House, has been outspoken in its support for Israel, which would be in desperate need of both direct support as well as resupply in the event of a major confrontation with forces led by Iran, particularly since the Islamic State has acquired major weapons systems (and one can assume intelligence support) from Russia.

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Washington is almost forced to be blunt. For eight years, the Obama Administration, for reasons that have yet to be explained, replaced the long-term U.S. alliance with Israel with a definite tilt towards Iran.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a radio interview quoted in Real Clear Politics stated: “The previous administration guaranteed Iran a path to nuclear weapons systems, allowed them to foment terror, and allowed their missile system to run amok. President Trump has directed that we do just the opposite – to deny them the resources to create risks not only for the United States and its citizens, but for Israel as well. And we’ve been successful with that. And we’ve also been incredibly supportive each time Israel has been forced to take actions to defend itself, the United States has made it very clear that that country has not only the right but the duty to protect its own people. And we are always supportive of their efforts to do that.”

The U.S., for its part, has sought to gain the support of its allies in confronting Iran. The task has been difficult. Turkey has notably tilted towards Russia and, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is closer to the Islamic fundamentalists who oppose Israel’s existence than a NATO ally. In responding to Iran’s belligerence at sea, European Union members have been opposed to the White House’s request for cooperation in taking defensive measures.

Con Coughlin, in a Gatestone examination, writes: “at a time when the Western alliance is already struggling with how to respond to Turkey’s deepening military ties with Russia, Germany’s refusal to fulfil its obligations to protect shipping in the Gulf will be interpreted by adversaries of the West such as Moscow and Tehran as yet further evidence of what would doubtless please them very much: deepening divisions within the Western alliance. Germany’s point-blank refusal to support Washington’s proposal for a maritime protection force in the Arabian Gulf to protect shipping from attacks by Iran is yet another example of Berlin’s diplomatic and economic sabotage of the Western alliance.”

The dark picture of an Iranian victory in the Middle East has implications far beyond Israel.  Allied with Russia (and possessing advance Russian arms, and possibly nuclear weapons) It would have a significant impact on the global economy, and the freedom, power, and influence to engage the next target on its international target list: western nations, both in Europe and the nation it deems “the Great Satan,” the United States.

Picture: Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani at a National Defence Industry Day ceremony (Iran Govt. photo)