The Belarus Challenge – USA Gov Policy

Not many Americans can identify where Belarus is located on a European map. That may be changing soon if its president, Alexander Lukashenko, decides to permit Vladimir Putin to stage Russian nuclear weapons inside the country. Belarus’ importance to political stability throughout the West today far outweighs the limited knowledge most in the US have about the state or the status of Minsk’s relationship with Moscow. In November Lukashenko made a public statement that dramatically raises the risk level of war in Europe when he stated: “I will suggest that Putin return nuclear weapons to Belarus,” and that “those nuclear armaments would be the most effective” deterrent.

Belarus is propped up by the Russian state. It purchases about half its exports and provides the former Soviet satellite state subsidized oil which it resells at a huge profit. Oil sales account for a large part of its GDP. The country borders Russia on the east and Ukraine on the south while Poland sits on its western border. Although Belarus is a smaller nation-state about the size of Kansas it is strategically important to Russia as a buffer with the European Union and NATO. Putin is willing to absorb the financial and political costs for it to remain within his sphere of influence.

Lukashenko has turned to Russia for well over a decade for financial aid, political backing, and the support needed to keep him in power. The bilateral relationship with Moscow has grown in significance in recent years as other former Soviet republics have moved closer to the West. Last year Putin saved Lukashenko’s regime by promising him a $1.5 billion loan and developing a law enforcement group for the president to ensure security inside the country. Since the August 2020 election Lukashenko, with Putin’s assistance, has cracked down heavily on protestors and the indigenous democracy movement. Putin retains regional hegemony over the area as Belarus is highly dependent on Russia’s largesse and Lukashenko is fully compliant and catering to Putin’s priorities.

“As President Lukashenko said, we are considering the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus as one of the potential responses to future possible actions by the NATO bloc on the territory of Poland,” Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told RT Arabic in an interview on Friday. Lukashenko suggests that that such a deployment is in response to a potential deployment of US atomic missiles in Eastern Europe in the future.

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Tensions have increased on the Belarus-Polish border over the last year as many are trying to illegally enter Poland to escape the harsh Lukashenko dictatorship. Belarus continues to align closely with Russia politically although Putin and Lukashenko have had their differences in the past. The EU and other Western nations refused to recognize the results of the August 4-8, 2020, presidential election due to corruption and falsified results. After backing up Lukashenko, Putin declared later in August 2020 that he knew he could “always count on Belarus for support.” It looks like Putin may be calling in the chips soon.

Recent intelligence reports suggest that the two countries are integrating additional Belarusian special forces units with Russian troops. After joint exercises earlier this year Putin left a number of troops inside Belarus. This pushes Lukashenko into a corner. He intends to retain his power and the independence for his country. At the same time, he is increasingly dependent on Russia for financial, political and military support. Should a skirmish occur with any of Belarus’ neighbors it could draw in NATO and Russian military forces and spread into a wider conflict with the potential to escalate into a nuclear war. Putin needs Lukashenko and Belarus but not the complications it brings to Russian-West European relations. How Putin gets resolves its Belarusian headache may determine if there is war in Europe in 2022.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay