Tajikistan and the Taliban

While war between Russia and Ukraine is occupying most of the headlines this week with dramatic visual images of apartment buildings being bombed in Kiev, Ukraine’s “tank man” standing in front of a line of Russian armored tanks, and people fleeing the cities with some on foot, there is another conflict, or perhaps peace, brewing in Central Asia. It is six months since the Taliban took over Afghanistan. In that time Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have comes to terms with the insurgent’s victory and begun the process of initiating diplomatic talks. Tajikistan, however, is not content with the situation and is taking a more cautious and independent approach.

The Taliban tend to favor the Pashtun ethnic group over Afghan Tajiks. “The Tajik Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin reasserted on February 3 that Tajikistan would not change its position until the Taliban formed a ‘truly inclusive government’ and engaged with opposition political and ethnic leaders,” according to Jamestown Foundation’s Jacob Zenn. Tajik leaders in the capital of Dushanbe say they will continue to put pressure on the Taliban by meeting regularly with heads of Afghan opposition groups. Although Tajikistan gave asylum to Afghanistan’s former vice president, Amrullah Saleh, it did agree in December to sign what it calls an “agreement of human assistance” with the new Afghan leaders to continue exporting electricity to Afghanistan along with other countries in the region already exporting energy.

The Taliban are demanding Tajikistan return aircraft it says belonged to the previous government. The United States is involved now as Washington has confirmed officially it expects the aircraft eventually to be returned to the US. However, in January, four months after the botched US withdrawal the Biden White House still had not figured out when or how to return about a dozen American helicopters, among other military hardware. Zenn suggests that “Notwithstanding Tajikistan’s continued openness towards anti-Taliban Afghan opposition figures and refusal to recognize or dialogue with the Taliban, the two countries will find ways to cooperate over matters of mutual urgency and regional initiatives.”

The security environment is more nuanced than it first appears. Amid war in Ukraine there could be a new balance of power brewing among the Central Asian states. Last week a Russian language publication in Moscow reported that the Taliban’s Chief of the General staff of the Taliban Armed Forces, Kari Fasihuddin Fitrat, said the Taliban movement, which Russia calls a terrorist organization and is banned in the Russian Federation, is sending 10,000 militants armed with modern weapons and equipment to the provinces bordering Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Earlier in the year Russia’s Commander of the Central Military District, Alexander Lapin, reported that Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will receive more than 70 weapons along with additional military equipment in 2022. This is reported to include 30 modernized Russian tanks. Although it is a minor buildup of Russian arms compared to elsewhere, Russia is reinserting itself in the region.

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At the same time China’s footprint in Tajikistan is growing. Last October Beijing provided the country $8.5 million to build a military base near its Afghanistan border. China is concerned that Uyghur fighters inside Tajikistan could pose security issues for western China and its BRI Initiative. In 2018 China was the largest foreign investor in the country accounting for 37% of direct foreign investment. It also is the nation’s largest foreign debt holder, with China Export-Import Bank holding more than US$1.1 billion of Tajikistan’s US$3.2 billion in external debt in 2020. According to World Bank figures, China’s BRI project in Tajikistan could cut its trade costs by between 4.5 – 5.6% and reduce the time it takes to transport goods by up to four days. Not only is China building a gas pipeline through the country, Chinese mining companies have secured mining and exploration rights for its extensive reserves of minerals such as silver, lead, zinc, and uranium.

Will this result in a new balance of power between the two communist great powers and among lesser states in the region? Some analysts in Washington suggest this may be the next hot spot to watch if the war in Ukraine spreads. Temur Umarov, of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, says that, “Landlocked regional states derive no benefit from switching one influential neighbor for another. All of them try to diversify their connections to the outside world, and in that, both Russia and China are equally important to them.” China, however, may not be willing for long to share influence in the strategic and mineral rich region with Russia. So far, Chinese diplomas have tread lightly in Tajikistan to ensure no great power conflict arises with Russia. But Umarov also points out “it is entirely incorrect to say that Beijing has ceded the security sphere to Moscow.”

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Tajikistan national flag.

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)