Tiananmen – USA Gov Policy

Thirty-one years ago this week our world witnessed the painful birth of a inchoate student revolution in Tiananmen Square. It was brimming with hope, determination, and dreams of ill-defined civil liberties and pluralism. Its symbol was the Goddess of Liberty, with two arms lifted high holding the torch representing freedom. Reminiscent of the United States’ Statue of Liberty, the Chinese version and those behind it, instilled instant fear in Deng Xiaoping and the rest of the CCP leadership. They perceived the chaos it echoed an unacceptable threat to the Party’s legitimacy and its power base. The political mobilization that began with insurgent students demanding better conditions on college campuses and calls for ill-understood democracy, ended with millions joining from around the world to condemn Chinese coup-proofing. But, did the calls for freedom genuinely end in the country when Beijing sent in tanks and fired bullets into the crowd killing hundreds?

Although Beijing quickly returned to the strict order required to keep the CCP in power and the state apparatus intact, Deng Xiaoping’s regime may have planted the seed of freedom deep in the hearts of China’s sophomoric youth. Three decades later it looks almost mature enough to bloom in Hong Kong.

Authoritarian regimes, like that found in China, fare better when they are able to limit communications, deny access to the outside world, and exert strong central control over the population. China’s highly centralized government has proven repeatedly over its seven decades of resilient CCP rule that it is capable of brutally repressing its own people to achieve total political control. As long as the CCP provided economic prosperity the population remained politically inactive and accepted the dictates of the Party and a constitution with no limits on its executive authority.

In the early 2000’s China was experiencing fast-paced, double-digit, economic growth that moved the country from a grain importing nation to one that exported high technology products throughout the world. New wealth and a nascent middle class helped citizens overlook the repressive measures that were exploding in number. Economic growth slowed after 2010, but China’s 10-year economic plan still called for an impressive, if unachievable, 6.8% growth rate. The leadership of the CCP lost no time in planning strategically for its emergence on the world scene as a potential hegemon.

Since 1989 the youth of the Tiananmen Square generation entered the work force, the country received permanent status in the WTO, and China emerged as a major power. The Internet crossed the Chinese border and cell phone technology provided the citizenry instant access to a world uncontrolled by the CCP. Rising economic aspirations and exposure to outside influences also resulted in the extreme tightening of controls over society by a regime already under scrutiny for corruption, ill-conceived efforts to reform the economy, widespread pollution, and uneven growth.

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Last year when Beijing pushed Hong Kong’s government to pass the Fugitive Offenders amendment bill, residents grew concerned the CCP was trying to supersede the autonomy of local authorities. By June 2019, exactly 30 years after the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, hundreds of thousands protested outside the Hong Kong Legislative Council Complex in a standoff with police. Although the bill was eventually withdrawn from consideration, the rift widened. Last fall the ongoing protests intensified with the shooting of an unarmed protester and two student deaths. Just a few weeks ago Beijing passed a national security bill that bypassed Hong Kong’s local legislative process and sparked new demonstrations and global protest. A whole generation of residents of Hong Kong, well-aware of the massacre in Tiananmen Square on the night of June 4, 1989, have lost trust in their government. It doesn’t bode well for any of the parties involved or Taiwan. Its president Tsai Ing-wen, and the rest of the island, are watching developments closely. If Beijing plans to succeed in its reunification goal with the Republic of China, it needs to reassess how it governs.

The lessons of Tiananmen Square are not lost on the population of Hong Kong or Taiwan. While both identify with the Chinese people and culture, they do not accept the lack of freedoms and repression offered by CCP rule. Perhaps like the periodical Cicada beetle, which is only found in the US, they are mature and ready to emerge this year? When the insect emerges from underground its grows wings and its shell hardens in less than 6 days. The call of the Cicada can be heard a mile away. And, its eyes can be red, white, or blue!

On June 4, 1989, I was in the Operations Center at the US Department of State working on the Secretary of State’s China Task Force when all hell broke loose in Beijing. The Secretary turned to ask me if we were witnessing the start of a civil war. My answer then was “No, it is too early, and they are not strong enough to stand up successfully to the CCP and the PLA.” Asked that same question in 2020 I would need to rethink my answer. The leadership in Beijing has a strategic choice to make this year as the world may be ready to hear the call of the “Cicada Rising” and hold the communist regime accountable.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay