Russia in Central America – USA Gov Policy

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its review of national security threats in Latin America.

There is little doubt that the weaponry Moscow has chosen to provide to Nicaragua has America as its target. Nuclear bomber bases and modern tanks are certainly unnecessary in any hypothetical Central American conflict.

Nicaragua’s southern neighbor, Costa Rica, is a nation that hasn’t even had a military since 1948, and its Constitution abolished the army altogether in 1949. Each December 1, Costa Ricans celebrate this milestone on “Army Abolition Day” (Día de la Abolición del Ejército).

To the North, Honduras and El Salvador present no threat, and in fact those two nations are at loggerheads with each other, when not concentrating on fighting internal gangs.

The Nicaraguan-Russian arms saga is part of a significant downturn in Latin America, as noted recently by the Wall Street Journal.
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“Venezuela has become a Cuban satellite and holds scores of political prisoners. Pluralism hangs by a thread in Bolivia, El Salvador and Ecuador. Yet the collapse of democracy may be most poignant in Nicaragua, which fought back against the Communist Sandinistas during the Cold War only to see them return with a vengeance amid U.S. indifference. Last month Sandinista President Daniel Ortega purged Nicaragua’s opposition from Parliament. In November he will run for a third five-year term with his wife, Rosario Murillo, as his vice-presidential candidate. …Readers may recall how Mr. Ortega led the Sandinista revolution…1979 with the help of the Soviet Union. He moved quickly to establish a Communist beachhead in Central America. This spawned the grass-roots Nicaraguan resistance. The Sandinistas accepted defeat but refused to surrender their weapons or their judiciary seats. The “commandantes” of the revolution had enriched themselves by confiscating property in what was known as “the piñata,” and many Nicaraguan property owners have never been compensated.Mr. Ortega has returned to power by exploiting democratic rules and then changing them once in power. …All of this has happened with nary a peep from the Obama Administration. Contrast that with the way the White House aggressively mobilized Latin American governments in 2009 when Honduras used constitutional means to remove a law-breaking president and then insisted that new elections be held on schedule. Latin Americans have noticed the U.S. double standard, and Nicaraguans are paying the price.”

The America’s Report has linked Ortega to Iran “Iran has been making inroads into Latin America for some time, especially in countries with strong Chavista influence, including Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and dangerously Nicaragua, which is very close in distance to the US…The problem is that if Ortega perpetuates himself in power, the United States’ and the region’s national security could suffer a serious blow. We have to consider that Iran has already used Hezbollah to attack what it considers enemies in Latin America, when they blew up the Israeli embassy and a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in the early -90’s killing and wounding hundreds…When Ortega became President of Nicaragua in 2007, Ahmadinejad considered his ascension so important that he was in Managua to attend the inauguration. Ortega even honored Ahmadinejad with two of the country’s most prestigious awards (the Liberty Medal and the Rubén Darío Medal). The two heads of state then toured shantytowns in Managua and Ortega told the press that the “revolutions of Iran and Nicaragua are almost twin revolutions…since both revolutions are about justice, liberty, self-determination, and the struggle against imperialism…What are all those Iranian diplomats doing in Nicaragua? …What is becoming dangerous is that Nicaragua is providing a safe place where Iran can send Revolutionary Guards and move them in and around the region. It is clear that the Iranians are allowed to come and go as they wish and there is no surveillance by the Nicaraguan regime. It is not far fetched to think that the embassy and the mosque could be used to store weapons and to develop and execute plans to attack American interests. What is certain is that urgent vigilance is required.”

Iran’s semi-official FARS news agency reports that Iran’s Army Commander Major General Ataollah Salehi has plans to deploy warships in Latin American.” Iran has been seeking to broaden ties and cooperation with Latin American states, including Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba, Mexico and Colombia.

The ramifications of the White House’s timidity have ramifications across the globe, as anxious allies take note of an America that fails to guard against rising threats even within striking distance of its own borders.

The New York Analysis begins a two-part review of the

deteriorating national security outlook in Latin America

A “Reverse watershed” may be in the making in Central America.

In the late 1980’s President Ronald Reagan successfully demanded that the Soviet Union cancel plans to place advanced military equipment in Nicaragua. His stance against Russian advances in Central America was rooted in a U.S. policy that extended as far back as the Monroe Doctrine.

His willingness to face down the expansion of Soviet military influence, combined with his arms buildup, was a vital component in the downfall of the U.S.S.R., one of the true turning points in the Cold War.

Thirty years later, the unwillingness of the Obama Administration to stand firm against Moscow’s current moves to place landing facilities for nuclear bombers and a spy station in Nicaragua, along with plans to place other heavy military equipment in the country, indicates that Washington’s current leadership lacks the courage or concern to confront aggressive nations, and is unwilling to face threats even within its own hemisphere.

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The McClatchy news service reports that “Russia is rekindling its once-strong ties to Nicaragua, possibly including providing the Central American nation with jet fighters, stoking unease as far away as the Andes in South America…The chief spokesman for the Sandinista Front on international matters…said Nicaragua’s relations with Russia have taken a ‘qualitative leap’…Former Sandinista President Daniel Ortega won elections and returned to power in 2007…Nicaragua’s neighbors recoiled. ‘One doesn’t combat drug trafficking with that kind of heavy military equipment for fighting wars,” Costa Rican Foreign Minister Manuel González said …”

The U.S. Naval Institute revealed in May that “In late April Russia shipped the first 20 of 50 T-72B tanks ordered by Nicaragua.The cost of the 50 tanks reportedly totals $80 million. That is $9 million more than Nicaragua’s total 2015 defense budget. The acquisition of tanks is particularly perplexing to many in the region since Nicaragua has relatively good relations with its neighbors…This puzzling move turns out to be one of several in recent years in which Russia has provided foreign assistance and weapons sales to their old allies in the ruling FSLN party under President Daniel Ortega…These echoes of the Cold War beg the question—why? It does not appear to be domestic politics, or some ambitious plan of the Nicaraguan government; rather, it is more likely driven by Putin’s desire to create mischief in America’s sphere of influence at a low cost…”

The Center for Security Policy calls Russia in Latin America “The problem we have chosen to ignore…Russian activities closer to home in the Western Hemisphere have been largely overlooked or perhaps just disregarded. There have been reports of increasing Russian military cooperation with countries in Latin America that are hostile to the United States, mainly Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. This includes agreements between Russia and the above named countries that would enable Russia to place their naval logistic facilities in Venezuelan, Cuban and Nicaraguan territory. According to Russia’s Secretary of Defense, those facilities could serve long-range aircraft. The motive, according to Russia expert, Stephen Blank is that Russia seeks access to ports and air bases for refueling purposes as well as great power influence… As the United States abandons its desire to be involved in international affairs, Russia and China aspire to increase their influence in areas of the world that have traditionally been part of the U.S. sphere of cultural and political influence. Simultaneously, Iran cultivates its own political alliances and terrorist networks in the region. The Bolivarian Alliance is a threat to democracy and stability in the region. Russia, China and Iran will do anything to reinforce these regimes.”

Moscow has not been shy about its Latin American involvement. In 2015, Pravda reported “Russia and Cuba agreed to train Cuban specialists in Russia. This is a very important aspect, as it means the technical and mental attachment of the armed forces of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to Russia. This marks a return to the Soviet system of allied military cooperation between Russia and Latin America. This long-term strategy imposes obligations on Russia to supply its allies in Latin America with advanced weapons, including air defense systems, aircraft and warships. Such issues were discussed in Nicaragua, Pravda.Ru wrote with reference to defensa.com website. ‘Moscow will begin shipping patrol gunboats in Managua during the second half of 2016 as part of the package that Russia offered Nicaragua last year.’ Furthermore, if we sell or have plans to sell S-300 and S-400 systems to Beijing and Tehran, why not selling them to Managua, Caracas and Havana?… Through the territory of Nicaragua, it is planned to build a new canal parallel to Panama Canal. In this case, vessels of the Russian fleet will be able to enter the Gulf of Mexico, that is exit the Pacific Ocean to enter the Atlantic. This is highly important, because in this case, Russia will be able to ensure so-called nuclear deterrence, because the Russian navy has long-range cruise missiles. If such Russian vessels are deployed somewhere near the territory of Cuba, they will be able to attack the United States.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Quick Analysis

China’s Tech Targets

Chinese technology is changing and its leadership is using it, along with espionage, to challenge the West in a number of critical areas. The United States is only one of its targets. Previously, Beijing’s spies primarily sought Western technologies as a way to skip generations of develop cost and time to modernize its economy. Today, its acquisition of advanced technologies, and now also its indigenous development, makes the communist giant a threat to freedom-loving people everywhere. This week Nan Mulchandani, the CIA’s chief technology officer, said Director William Burns is preparing for an “infinite race” with Beijing for artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. He argues the US must pivot toward providing American spies with the latest transformative technologies to outcompete China. Mulchandani says this means updating everything the agency does “from operations to the analytic function, support functions and other piece there.” America, he suggests, needs to alter its thinking toward viewing this not as a race with a finite end point, but as an ongoing competition. Mr. Mulchandani predicted that the next area of competition would “be primarily a software war that is powered by something like AI” rather than hardware fueled by software. That competition, however, is not confined to simply acquiring critical technologies for use in the future. China is also challenging the US in space. China announced today it launched a groundbreaking mission to retrieve samples from the far side of the moon. The space capsule will arrive in four days and collect 4.4 pounds of moon rocks and regolith, or moon dirt. Beijing’s desire to one day become a space power and scientific force is for pragmatic purposes in 2024 a fait accompli. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, said during a NASA budget hearing this week, that “while the US remains the global leader in space exploration, we face increasing challenges internationally.” Referring to China’s space station, Lucas said: “We cannot allow China to become the front-runner in space exploration… There are too many consequences for our competitiveness, our national security, and our continued ability to explore space.” A new report released this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that the United States, to further its geopolitical interests and maintain a strong domestic economy, must approach every aspect of economic and trade policy through the lens of global technology competition. The Biden Administration’s approach, it says, discounts the landscape of competition between China and the US and may “jeopardize US advancements in emerging technologies… which could cede the advantage to China….” In particular, the report recommends that the US take action now because quantum and artificial intelligence (AI) need a federal policy to ensure the country can spur the entrepreneurship and R&D efforts foundational to the strength of the technology sector. As China’s Communist Party (CCP) becomes more hostile to the United States and other Western nations, its aggressive activities abroad expand and intensify. Chinese spy cases far outnumber those of Russia and every other nation. CSIS reports that since President Xi took over in 2012 there have been 224 incidents of spying. Estimates of the long -term economic, scientific, and national security cost to the US run into the billions and have “created immeasurable damage to national security with the theft of weapons technology, including nuclear weapons test data… China has added the theft of massive quantities of personal information, political coercion, and influence operations, to its espionage activities.” The CSIS reports says that 49% of incidents of spying in the US directly involved Chinese military or government employees, with private Chinese citizens accounted for 41%. In 29% of the espionage cases the person involved was attempting to acquire military technology, while in 54% of the incidents it was related to commercial technologies. Almost half of the cases involved cyber espionage, usually by state—affiliated actors. No matter where one turns today China is challenging the West, from the depths of our oceans to outer space. The United States cannot count on China to be a good global citizen and refrain from attempting to enforce its vision of world order with Beijing at the apex. The time is growing short for the West to take action. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.