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America May Lag in New War Tech Part 2

Over the past several decades, America has enjoyed technological superiority over its military adversaries. That may not be the case moving forward.

According to the DIA, “within a decade, China and Russia’s militaries will be using data visualization, artificial intelligence, machine learning and possibly quantum encryption and communications. These tools are used to collect, analyze and secure data accurately and at high speeds. Both China and Russia realize that whoever can leverage the data and understands that can dominate.  China already is moving rapidly ahead with digital advances.”

General Ashley cited the Chinese company Huawei’s Smart City Intelligent Operation Center, which is using big data, 5G, machine learning and AI to collect, monitor and analyze security, transportation and emergencies, and to track people.

In response, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency is attempting to improve American capabilities, noting that “The agency needs to ensure that its intelligence-sharing tool, the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System, has adequate resourcing to ensure it remains secure, reliable and resilient.”

General Ashley described how the Machine-Assisted Analytic Rapid-Repository System, which is still in development, will become DIA’s database of the future, using cloud computing, AI and machine learning, automating many of the tasks currently done manually by operators.

The DIA believes that open-source intelligence will be used to a much greater extent. Open-source intelligence is data collected from publicly available sources. When combined with other intelligence data, it can provide a much more accurate intelligence picture that will further DIA’s mission of “providing intelligence on foreign militaries to prevent and decisively win wars.

In addition to systems, Ashley said, people are the agency’s foundational strength.

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People work best when they are on teams to use one another’s strengths, he said. DIA has organized analytic data teams composed of data scientists, tool developers, methodologists and all-source analysts to look at information and refine algorithms to get a more accurate intelligence picture.

Ashley emphasized that the DIA also needs to strengthen its teaming with allies and partners, Ashley said, notably data sharing. Currently, a brigade is pretty good at speed in sharing intelligence within the brigade, he said.

However, when it comes to sharing intelligence between brigades and between each of the military services, it slows down, he said. And, it’s even slower between allies and partners.

The DIA chief noted that “It took World War II to compel better information sharing between allies.” As an example, he used the example of how The U.S. cracked Japan’s Purple Encryption Machine early in the war. and the United Kingdom cracked the Enigma Machine used by the Germans. A decision was made at the very top for the two nations to share their work, and it probably shortened the war by two years. “It shouldn’t take another war like that to enable intelligence sharing,” Ashley said.

In 2017, the United Nations conducted a conference https://undocs.org/CCW/GGE.1/2017/3 aimed at establishing “an open-ended Group of Governmental Experts related to emerging technologies in the area of lethal autonomous weapons systems.” One conclusion reached was that “Responsibility for the deployment of any weapons system in armed conflict remains with States. States must ensure accountability for lethal action by any weapon system used by the State’s forces in armed conflict in accordance with applicable international law, in particular international humanitarian law. The human element in the use of lethal force should be further considered.”

If the past is any precedence, the introduction of this next phase of warfighting technology is inevitable. Considering the belligerence of its global adversaries, The United States needs to both take the lead in this technology, while insuring that appropriate human control and adequate safeguards are in place.

Photo:  Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley Jr., the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)

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Quick Analysis

America May Lag in New War technology

Just as industrialization and the advent of flight and nuclear power dramatically changed warfare in the past, today’s cutting-edge technologies are altering how the world will fight in the future. America’s adversaries are making significant headway in this, much to the nation’s peril.

Science fiction readers may recognize some of the dangers from movies such as the famous “Terminator” series.

Army Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley Jr., the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), is clearly concerned. At a recent conference, he noted that “Within a decade, China and Russia’s militaries will be using data visualization, artificial intelligence, machine learning and possibly quantum encryption and communications. These tools are used to collect, analyze and secure data accurately and at high speeds. Both China and Russia realize that ‘whoever can leverage the data and understands that can dominate.’  China already is moving rapidly ahead with digital advances.”

Jayshree Pandya, writing for Forbes, believes that “In the competition to lead the emerging technology race and the futuristic warfare battleground, artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming the center of the global power play. As seen across many nations, the development in autonomous weapons system (AWS) is progressing rapidly, and this increase in the weaponization of artificial intelligence seems to have become a highly destabilizing development. It brings complex security challenges for not only each nation’s decision makers but also for the future of humanity… artificial intelligence is leading us toward a new algorithmic warfare battlefield that has no boundaries or borders, may or may not have humans involved, and will be impossible to understand and perhaps control across the human ecosystem in cyberspace, geospace, and space (CGS). As a result, the very idea of the weaponization of artificial intelligence, where a weapon system that, once activated across CGS, can select and engage human and non-human targets without further intervention by a human designer or operator, is causing great fear.” 

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General Ashley cited the Chinese company Huawei’s Smart City Intelligent Operation Center, which is using big data, 5G, machine learning and AI to collect, monitor and analyze security, transportation and emergencies, and to track people.

 Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., writing for Breaking Defense, outlined how the Army War College is concerned about “What happens when Artificial Intelligence produces a war strategy too complex for human brains to understand? Do you trust the computer to guide your moves, like a traveler blindly following GPS? Or do you reject the plan and, with it, the potential for a strategy so smart it’s literally superhuman?…’ I’m not talking about killer robots,’ said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership, ‘The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines.’

“’I’m not talking about killer robots,’ said Prof. Andrew Hill, the War College’s first-ever chair of strategic leadership and one of the conference’s lead organizers, at the opening session. The Pentagon wants AI to assist human combatants, not replace them. The issue is what happens once humans start taking military advice — or even orders — from machines. The reality is this happens already, to some extent. Every time someone looks at a radar or sonar display, for example, they’ve counting on complicated software to correctly interpret a host of signals no human can see. The Aegis air and missile defense system on dozens of Navy warships recommends which targets to shoot down with which weapons, and if the human operators are overwhelmed, they can put Aegis on automatic and let it fire the interceptors itself. This mode is meant to stop massive salvos of incoming missiles but it could also shoot down manned aircraft. Now, Aegis isn’t artificial intelligence. It rigidly executes pre-written algorithms, without machine learning’s ability to improve itself. But it is a long-standing example of the kind of complex automation that is going to become more common as technology improves. While the US military won’t let a computer pull the trigger, it is developing target-recognition AI to go on everything from recon drones to tank gunsights to infantry goggles.”

The Report concludes tomorrow.

Illustration: Pixabay