Great Power competition – USA Gov Policy

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many hoped and believed that, with the end of the Cold War, the era of “great power competition” had come to a close. Indeed, one author, Francis Fukuyama, an American political scientist, wrote what became a famous book, “The End of History…” which discussed that topic.

Unfortunately, those hopes were soon dashed. The belligerent Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as head of Russia. Putin’s dream is a restoration of the Soviet Empire. Even more worrisome, China moved rapidly, intensely, and successfully to develop a superpower caliber military, which it has wielded aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region.

Unmistakably, the era of great power competition has returned. The Congressional Research Service has just released a study examining the implications of that unwanted reality. According to the report, “The post-Cold War era of international relations—which began in the early 1990s and is sometimes referred to as the unipolar moment (with the United States as the unipolar power)— showed initial signs of fading in 2006-2008, and by 2014 had given way to a fundamentally different situation of renewed great power competition with China and Russia and challenges by these two countries and others to elements of the U.S.-led international order that has operated since World War II.”

The reality of this unwanted turn in international affairs has been acknowledged by both Democrat and Republican administrations. The Obama Administration did so in its June 2012 National Military Strategy document, although critics have noted that the former administration failed to produce an adequate acknowledgement of the fact through an appropriate defense budget. Indeed, many pointed with alarm to the “hollowing out” of the U.S. armed forces during his tenure.

President Trump, however, moved more forcibly, by sending to Congress defense budgets that provided the U.S. military the means to begin addressing the challenge.

The return of great power competition has required defense planners to shift gears. Since the collapse of the USSR, and especially since the horrific attack on American soil on September 11, 2001, much of the emphasis within the U.S. defense establishment has been on fighting terrorism and on combatting opponents with far less technology and underwhelming militaries, notably in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

Now, there are greater threats to face.

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While Russia has, arguably, the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal, and has lately made clear that it would use atomic weapons even in conventional battles, it is China that has taken center stage in producing deep concern.

For far too long, many have ignored Beijing’s dramatic military buildup, which was funded at an annual rate of increase that even exceeded that of either the Soviet Union or the United States at the height of the Cold War.

Admiral Harry Harris, the former Commander of America’s Pacific Command, (PACOM) in testimony before the House of Representatives’ Armed Service Committee, noted:

“China’s impressive military buildup could soon challenge the U.S. across almost every domain. Key advancements include fielding significant improvements in missile systems, developing 5th generation fighter aircraft capabilities, and growing the size and capability of the Chinese navy, to include their first-ever overseas base in the port of Djibouti. They are also heavily investing into the next wave of military technologies, including hypersonic missiles, advanced space and cyber capabilities, and artificial intelligence …China’s ongoing military buildup, advancement, and modernization are core elements of their strategy to supplant the U.S… China also holds clear global ambitions. But don’t take my word for it. Just listen to what China says itself: At the 19th Party Congress, President Xi stated he wanted China to develop a ‘world class’ military and become a “global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence.”

Photo: A J-16 fighter jet attached to an aviation regiment under the PLA Air Force takes off from the runway for a night patrol during a round-the-clock flight training exercise on October 21, 2020. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Xu Chentong)

Still reeling from the effects of Obama-era cuts to the military, America’s armed forces are attempting to reconfigure themselves to meet the challenge of great power competition.

Tom C. Donnelly, writing in National Review, notes “…one effect of eight years of Obama won’t soon vanish: He’s done more damage to American military power than his successor can repair… Obama not only restrained the American habit of involving ourselves in the world’s affairs but also, by reducing our military power, constrained a future president’s ability to do so. The consistency of the Obama disarmament is reflected in defense-spending arithmetic… the Pentagon has lost more than $250 billion in purchasing power.”

One result of the Obama-era cuts was to limit the Pentagon’s ability to fight in two separate theaters. It would be most difficult, for example, to respond to an Iranian attack in the Middle East and a North Korean aggression in Asia occurring close in time.

The Trump Administration has pumped new funds into defense, but their effect may not be seen for some time. The White House also must contend that future conflicts would not be against relatively weak forces. The era of Great Power competition has returned.

The National Defense Strategy (see our summary ) describes how the Defense Department plans to respond to threats from Russia and China.

According to the Final Report of The National Defense Strategy Commission, (entitled Providing for the Common Defense) which was released in November, “The security and wellbeing of the United States are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America’s military superiority—the hard-power backbone of its global influence and national security—has eroded to a dangerous degree. Rivals and adversaries are challenging the United States on many fronts and in many domains. America’s ability to defend its allies, its partners, and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt. If the nation does not act promptly to remedy these circumstances, the consequences will be grave and lasting… The Commission argues that America confronts a grave crisis of national security and national defense, as U.S. military advantages erode and the strategic landscape becomes steadily more threatening. If the United States does not show greater urgency and seriousness in responding to this crisis and does not take decisive steps to rebuild its military advantages now, the damage to American security and influence could be devastating.”

Army chief of staff Gen. James C. McConville, speaking at the Atlantic Council in Washington, described how the military is responding.

He emphasized that the U.S. military needs to be both strong and innovative in order to deter conflict or to win if diplomacy and deterrence fail.

The Department of Defense (DOD) relies heavily on allies and partners, McConville said, noting that he has personally met with 75 chiefs of staff from nations around the world over the course of the last year. There aren’t enough U.S. soldiers to be in all places in the world at one time where they’re needed.

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That challenge was exacerbated during the Obama Administration,

In order to have well-trained partners who can provide their own security, the Army has recently stood up security force assistance brigades, he said. They train and advise partner nations.

When they are all stood up there will be five active security force assistance brigades and one in the Army National Guard, he said.

In the area of communications, a future integrated command and control network will not only link sensor to shooters across the DoD, but will also be integrated with systems allies and partners use, McConville said. He described how a “near-peer” competitor like Russia or China could make it difficult to enter an area through their advanced standoff weaponry.

In order to overcome that obstacle, the Army is experimenting with advanced weapons that use directed energy and microwaves. In two to three years, he expects the Army to begin fielding new precision strike missiles and extended-range cannons.

Another way to penetrate an enemy’s defenses, he said, is with aircraft that have much greater range and speed than the current fleet. Some of those aircraft could even be unmanned, he said.

Unmanned ground vehicles are also being developed to take the lead in areas that are heavily mined or full of improvised explosive devices.

Also, future tanks might just have one person in the vehicle instead of four. Artificial intelligence and robotics could take the place of some of the crew.

Photo: Tank crew on maneuvers (DoD)

Quick Analysis

China’s Tech Targets

Chinese technology is changing and its leadership is using it, along with espionage, to challenge the West in a number of critical areas. The United States is only one of its targets. Previously, Beijing’s spies primarily sought Western technologies as a way to skip generations of develop cost and time to modernize its economy. Today, its acquisition of advanced technologies, and now also its indigenous development, makes the communist giant a threat to freedom-loving people everywhere. This week Nan Mulchandani, the CIA’s chief technology officer, said Director William Burns is preparing for an “infinite race” with Beijing for artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. He argues the US must pivot toward providing American spies with the latest transformative technologies to outcompete China. Mulchandani says this means updating everything the agency does “from operations to the analytic function, support functions and other piece there.” America, he suggests, needs to alter its thinking toward viewing this not as a race with a finite end point, but as an ongoing competition. Mr. Mulchandani predicted that the next area of competition would “be primarily a software war that is powered by something like AI” rather than hardware fueled by software. That competition, however, is not confined to simply acquiring critical technologies for use in the future. China is also challenging the US in space. China announced today it launched a groundbreaking mission to retrieve samples from the far side of the moon. The space capsule will arrive in four days and collect 4.4 pounds of moon rocks and regolith, or moon dirt. Beijing’s desire to one day become a space power and scientific force is for pragmatic purposes in 2024 a fait accompli. Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, said during a NASA budget hearing this week, that “while the US remains the global leader in space exploration, we face increasing challenges internationally.” Referring to China’s space station, Lucas said: “We cannot allow China to become the front-runner in space exploration… There are too many consequences for our competitiveness, our national security, and our continued ability to explore space.” A new report released this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that the United States, to further its geopolitical interests and maintain a strong domestic economy, must approach every aspect of economic and trade policy through the lens of global technology competition. The Biden Administration’s approach, it says, discounts the landscape of competition between China and the US and may “jeopardize US advancements in emerging technologies… which could cede the advantage to China….” In particular, the report recommends that the US take action now because quantum and artificial intelligence (AI) need a federal policy to ensure the country can spur the entrepreneurship and R&D efforts foundational to the strength of the technology sector. As China’s Communist Party (CCP) becomes more hostile to the United States and other Western nations, its aggressive activities abroad expand and intensify. Chinese spy cases far outnumber those of Russia and every other nation. CSIS reports that since President Xi took over in 2012 there have been 224 incidents of spying. Estimates of the long -term economic, scientific, and national security cost to the US run into the billions and have “created immeasurable damage to national security with the theft of weapons technology, including nuclear weapons test data… China has added the theft of massive quantities of personal information, political coercion, and influence operations, to its espionage activities.” The CSIS reports says that 49% of incidents of spying in the US directly involved Chinese military or government employees, with private Chinese citizens accounted for 41%. In 29% of the espionage cases the person involved was attempting to acquire military technology, while in 54% of the incidents it was related to commercial technologies. Almost half of the cases involved cyber espionage, usually by state—affiliated actors. No matter where one turns today China is challenging the West, from the depths of our oceans to outer space. The United States cannot count on China to be a good global citizen and refrain from attempting to enforce its vision of world order with Beijing at the apex. The time is growing short for the West to take action. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.