foreign affairs in the 2020 campaign

President Trump has had a tough and realistic set of foreign policies towards Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Those nations, more accustomed to administrations that sacrifice U.S. national security in return for the ability to portray a rosy but false picture of global relations, would like nothing more than to see him lose the next election. They can be expected to do all they can to achieve that goal.

Russia will continue its drive to stay ahead of the U.S. in nuclear arms, a position it achieved thanks to negotiations with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the New Start talks.

North Korea will veer away from compromising on its nuclear program any further in the hope of a getting a new occupant in the White House who will be less militant on sanctions and less willing to fund a U.S. military that will be sufficiently capable of a kinetic solution.

Iran and the terrorists it sponsors had the benefit of eight years of the Obama presidency which, bizarrely and still inexplicably, did all that it could to strengthen and enrich the Mullah-led, deeply anti-U.S. and anti-Israel regime. After suffering through Trump’s stringent sanctions, it will vigorously do everything possible to get another Democrat back in office.

China will do all that it can to increase tensions in Asia and the Pacific.

More importantly, from a domestic American perspective, it will refuse to compromise in trade talks, and will engage in actions that cause pain to U.S. consumers, farmers, and others. This is a particularly frustrating problem for Washington. Beijing’s outrageous practices of intellectual property theft, technological espionage, marketplace dumping, and barriers to U.S. goods seriously damage America’s economy.

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But the temporary pain this may cause In the U.S. will be seized upon by Democrats and their media allies as a reason to vote against the GOP. The internal fight will be particularly tough. Far more than Moscow ever did, Beijing has mastered internal U.S. politics.

A Foreign Affairs review noted that “In the last decade, the Chinese government has committed to boosting its appeal abroad. Beijing has been developing an international media network and establishing cultural study centers around the world. While debate abounds over whether promoting China’s traditions, values, language, and culture can win it more friends, vast funds are backing programs to enhance the country’s image.”

A Diplomat article notes that “in 2014, President Xi Jinping said,’We should increase China’s soft power, give a good Chinese narrative, and better communicate China’s message to the world.’ One of Xi’s signature policies, the ‘Chinese Dream,’ has been proposed as a kind of corollary or alternative to the American Dream. This is all part of a ‘charm offensive’ that will only accelerate in years to come, especially in light of the events at the recent 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.”

Beijing built great sway on university campuses through it’s “Confucius Institutes,” in Hollywood through its purchases of media companies, and in both parties through quiet deals which enrich individual politicians. Joe Biden’s vigorous attempts to downplay China’s danger following his son’s billion dollar deal with that nation is a prime example.

Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang clearly understand that any of the candidates currently seeking the Democrat nomination to oppose Trump would return to the Obama Administration’s practice of sharply cutting the Pentagon’s budget, an outcome they are only too eager to have occur.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride until November of 2020.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States As 2023 drew to a close, the dramatically deteriorating national security picture for the United States and its allies prompted a review of “America’s Strategic Posture.” A committee chaired by Madelyn Creedon and Jon Kyl issued a sobering analysis. We present a summary of this vital analysis. The militarily troubling and increasingly aggressive behaviors of Russia and China over the past decade led Congress to direct a review of the strategic posture of the United States, including nuclear weapons policy, strategy, and force structure. China’s rapid military build-up, including the unprecedented growth of its nuclear forces, Russia’s diversification and expansion of its theater-based nuclear systems, the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and subsequent full-scale invasion in February 2022, have all fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape. As a result of China’s and Russia’s growing competition with the United States and its Allies and partners, and the increasing risk of military conflict with one or both, as well as concerns about whether the United States would be prepared to deter two nuclear peers, Congress determined it was time for a new look at U.S. strategic policy, strategy, and force structure. The new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War. Today the United States is on the cusp of having not one, but two nuclear peer adversaries, each with ambitions to change the international status quo, by force, if necessary: a situation which the United States did not anticipate and for which it is not prepared. While the risk of a major nuclear conflict remains low, the risk of military conflict with either or both Russia and China, while not inevitable, has grown, and with it the risk of nuclear use, possibly against the U.S. homeland. The United States faces a strategic challenge requiring urgent action. Given current threat trajectories, our nation will soon encounter a fundamentally different global setting than it has ever experienced: we will face a world where two nations possess nuclear arsenals on par with our own. In addition, the risk of conflict with these two nuclear peers is increasing. It is an existential challenge for which the United States is ill-prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now to adjust the U.S. strategic posture. America’s defense strategy and strategic posture must change in order to properly defend its vital interests and improve strategic stability with China and Russia. Decisions need to be made now in order for the nation to be prepared to address the threats from these two nucleararmed adversaries arising during the 2027-2035 timeframe. Moreover, these threats are such that the United States and its Allies and partners must be ready to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously. The evidence demonstrates that the U.S.-led international order and the values it upholds are at risk from the Chinese and Russian authoritarian regimes. The risk of military conflict with those major powers has grown and carries the potential for nuclear war. Therefore, the Commission reached the unanimous, non-partisan conclusion that today’s strategic outlook requires an urgent national focus and a series of concerted actions not currently planned. In sum, we find that the United States lacks a comprehensive strategy to address the looming twonuclear-peer threat environment and lacks the force structure such a strategy will require. In reaching that overall conclusion, we make clear that the fundamentals of America’s deterrence strategy remain sound, but the application of that strategy must change to address the 2027-2035 threat environment. Those changes drive necessary adjustments to the posture of U.S. nuclear capabilities – in size and/or composition. A full spectrum of non-nuclear capabilities is also essential to the nation’s strategic posture. Such adjustments, in turn, drive the need to strengthen and expand the capacity of the infrastructure required to sustain and enhance U.S. strategic capabilities. In addition, Allies and partners are central to our findings regarding strategy and posture. We also emphasize the need for robust risk reduction efforts as fundamental to the U.S. approach in the new threat environment. The Report continues tomorrow Photo: The lead ground-based Interceptor is launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., March 25, 2019, in the first salvo engagement test of a threat-representative intercontinental ballistic missile target. The test’s two interceptors successfully intercepted a target launched from the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean. (DoD)