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Can China Survive?

As political pressure mounts over China’s poor handling of the ongoing Covid-19 virus epidemic, the leadership in Beijing contemporaneously faces a number of major public policy challenges. President Xi Jinping has embarked on an ambitious plan for hegemonic domination of East Asia in the short-term. Later he expects to force recognition of China as the great power among major world nations. It is an ambitious embarking. Since assuming full power in 2012 Xi has ordered the leaders of various Chinese Communist Party (CCP) organs and governmental departments to develop and deploy artificial intelligence to construct his vision of a 21st century surveillance state, not unlike something one might read about in a Kurt Vonnegut fantastical, short story about dehumanizing alien societies and civilizations. 

The military, which only a few decades ago was training with wooden sticks in place of actual guns, today commands some of the most advanced offensive weaponry available. Under Xi, China has demonstrated its weaponization of space with directed energy weapons and satellite jammers capable of interfering with sensitive, in theater, US military operations. On the high seas China deploys a blue water navy capable of traversing under the polar ice caps and limiting freedom of navigation in much of the South and East China Seas. 

Just a year ago in the South Pole-Aitken Basin area of the moon, China’s military landed an unmanned spacecraft making it the first nation to achieve a landing on the “dark side.” It was part scientific and part propaganda coup. As Liu Jizhong, of China’s Lunar Exploration and Aerospace Engineering Center, told Agence France-Press, “The implementation of the Chang’e 4 mission has helped our country make the leap from following to leading.” It is this leap that greatly concerns the United States and other western nations striving for a more free, safe, and prosperous global environment. What President Xi and the CCP have failed to demonstrate is their ability to govern China as a modern nation-state and follow the norms of acceptable international behavior. 

In a recent speech this week in Washington US Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper talked about how China is achieving these gains and what it is costing free people everywhere. He said that President Xi is using direct state investment, forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft to skip the generations of investment and learning normally needed to achieve these scientific advancements. Chinese economic espionage and theft of American intellectual property has dramatically expanded in recent years. Esper added: “Beijing is determined to exploit American intellectual property and know-how at any cost.”

It is this “at any cost” attitude that is most concerning to world leaders. Despite global outrage at China’s behavior it continues down the same path. Feigned attempts to hold China accountable by previous American administrations failed to slow China’s avarice for stolen technology. Finally, in 2018, under the Trump Administration crackdown on the country, the US Justice Department filed more than a half dozen charges in separate economic espionage cases and secured convictions and guilty pleas in six more. It still represents only a small indent in illicit Chinese efforts. Hackers daily target prime US technology companies, government, and academia in attempts to siphon off the latest intellectual property in development. Xi and other Chinese leaders often attempt to justify the thievery by referring to the Unequal Treaties period in Chinese history, from about 1839 to the early 20th century, in which many western nations forced China to sign treaties and agreements conceding its territory and sovereignty rights to those foreign powers.

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Underlying Xi’s modernization strategy is his visceral need to restore China to its rightful place in the world, as he defines it. The effort includes the national-level expansion of his “Military-Civil Fusion Strategy” or MCF. It effectively creates a robust military-industrial complex obscuring the distinction between military and civilian knowledge, research, and production. The danger to other nations is real. By adopting and reengineering new products from acquired foreign systems China can simultaneously harness both sectors for national defense technology advancements. 

The expanded strategy is not new. Sometimes foreign firms helped China. In 2003 the Chinese Computer World Army-Supporting Alliance on Science and Technology, with the assistance from at least four US firms, provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with $4.5 million USD in IT equipment. Defense Secretary Esper says the United States cannot continue to allow American firms to support Chinese exploitation of our intellectual resources in light of Xi Jinping’s aggressive global agenda. MCF is a 21st century whole-of-government effort to redesign China’s defense innovation ecosystem. President Xi has taken on many political challenges and, to date, won the majority of those contests. His global agenda, however, may be raising the stakes so high that any lapse in progress, whether from the Covid-19 epidemic or the Trump Administration’s trade war, may be enough to dislodge him from the legacy he seeks to secure. This year’s challenges may prove to undermine the stability Xi and the CCP have fought so hard to maintain at the cost of freedom and domestic innovation. Losing is not an acceptable option for the Chinese leadership.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Xi addresses virus crisis (China gov. official photo)

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Can a Microscopic Bug Wipe Out China’s Economic Gains?

Nothing is worse for the prestige of a Chinese leader than experiencing uncontrolled chaos in the country he normally rules with an authoritarian fist. The 2019 novel coronavirus, now dubbed COVID-19 by WHO, may be just what the doctor ordered to loosen President Xi Jinping’s iron grip on the Chinese population. It also may help relax the stranglehold Beijing has over its third world trading partners who now are heavily indebted due to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But, is it good for Xi’s legacy?

In typical Chinese style the government, led by Xi, failed to alert the public and the international community to the severity of the virus’ impact on a large proportion of the Chinese population. Known as “point prevalence,” epidemiologists believe President Xi knew the high proportion of the population infected and dying long before he publicly admitted its impact. Like many dictatorships, the free flow of information is constrained in China. It took well over a month, until after the Chinese New Year on January 25, for Xi to publicly announce a new high-level coordinating body within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) designated to look into the virus. What is significant about the “Central Leading Small Group for Work to Counter the New Corona Infection Pneumonia Epidemic” (CLSG) body is not its long name, but the person designated by President Xi to lead it. 

To insulate himself from condemnation in the handling of the epidemic and its economic impact, Xi delegated State Council Premier Li Keqiang, #2 in the CCP, as head of the CLSG. Xi recently met with WHO officials to discuss the virus, which will give him bragging rights should the epidemic be resolved quickly with good results. But, if China fails to contain its spread and the death rate climbs, he has Premier Li to blame. The COVID-19 is proving to be the greatest challenge facing the CCP and Xi since he assumed office in 2012. 

In a more unusual move, the state media organs have given the CLSG a very public role. Formal members of the group have been identified in the news and the government has attempted to portray its response now as very energetic. Despite the late-mounted attempts to get ahead of it, Xi has conceded that COVID-19 has challenged his ability to “uphold stability” in the society. By ignoring the truth, maintaining secrecy at the start, and allowing factions within the CCP to impact efforts to counter the virus, Xi has weakened his position as leader of China, at a time when he is attempting to take on the role of an important world leader.

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During the last four weeks cargo ships have sat idle in harbors off the Chinese coast, laden with commodities and restricted from moving. Oil purchases have declined steeply, too, as factories are closed and demand for crude in China’s refineries is scaled back. Government attempts to shore up the domestic economy are making China’s hopes for achieving its ambitious Ten-Year Economic Plan less likely than before, as achieving a 6.2% growth rate in the coming year is now almost out of the question.

Many analysts suggest that China’s recovery from the COVID-19 will be longer and pale in comparison to the country’s recovery from the 2003 SARS epidemic or the 2012 MERS outbreak. The new virus already has resulted in more deaths than SARS and MERS.  It is proving to be a test of solidarity for China as it reclassifies how it counts the virus’ victims and the numbers continue to grow. President Xi may be forced to slow his economic reform program as the impact on the domestic economy in China and, to a less degree, on world trade is stressing the limits of what China can do even after declaring a “People’s War” on COVID-19.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay