China R&D – USA Gov Policy

Most Americans have yet to realize the magnitude of the threat they confront from China’s vast industrial might and its success in stealing trade and military secrets from the West.

Michael Brown, director of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, addressed an October Center for Strategic and International Studies conference in Washington on the crisis. “Imagine what the world would look like if China were setting standards in game-changing technologies like hypersonics, quantum sciences, autonomy, artificial intelligence, 5G, genetic engineering and space,” Brown pointed out. He noted that almost all of those areas have both economic and military ramifications.

The economic implications of China’s technological prowess are vast. Brown noted, as an example, the impact of America’s lead in 4G tech. “Recon Analytics issued an April 2018 report estimating that the introduction of 4G contributed to 70% growth in the U.S. wireless industry between 2011 and 2014 and bolstered jobs in the wireless industry by 80%. By leading the charge, the U.S. was able to build a global ecosystem of network providers, device manufacturers and app developers that shaped the future of 4G.”

Brown warned that Beijing is seeking to be the technology leader in all fields within the first half of this century. He emphasized that it is already competitive with or ahead of the U.S. in hypersonics and space. In 2018, China launched more satellites than America. Leadership in 5G technology, artificial intelligence, and facial recognition is looming. The Department of Defense notes that “China is ahead of or at pace with the United States in quantum sciences, launching its first quantum communications satellite in 2016.”

Genetic engineering is an area in which China holds a significant edge. “In genetic engineering,” Brown notes, “the United States uses Chinese-made equipment for genome sequencing…China has more data on the genetic sequencing of the U.S. population than the United States has on its own population.”

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Brown suggests that Washington invest more in research and technology. He pointed out that the U.S. invests just 0.7% of its gross domestic product on research and development, and half of that goes into health, not military, applications. In the 1960s, total research and development spending was 2% of the nation’s GDP.

Brown emphasized that in the commercial sector, research and development investment tax credits and other incentives should be applied so manufacturing doesn’t migrate overseas. He also called for export control reform and cooperation with allies to ensure technology isn’t transferred to China.

As in so many other areas, America’s educational system is failing. The number of science, technology, engineering and math graduates in the United States is declining, and China has 10 times the number of engineering graduates. Brown noted that “About 25% of STEM graduates in U.S. universities are Chinese foreign nationals. Policy should encourage these students to stay in the United States while increasing counterintelligence to help ensure that some of those students aren’t here solely to transfer their technical knowledge back to China.”

A CNAS report echoed much of Brown’s warning:“Chinese technological capabilities are growing as rapidly as its economic power…China is keenly focused on blunting the U.S. military’s technological superiority, even as it strives to achieve technological parity, and eventually technological dominance… after considering what the Chinese military has accomplished technologically in little more than two decades and what they plan to do in the decades to come, any objective assessment must at least consider the possibility that the U.S. Joint Force is close to becoming the victim of a deliberate, patient, and robustly resourced military-technical offset strategy.”

While Pentagon officials and the White House have addressed the rapidly growing issue, it remains worrisome that the media has not emphasized it, and Democrat candidates running for their party’s presidential nomination have not made it much of an issue.

Photo: U.S. satellite being prepared. China launched more satellites than U.S. in 2018 (DoD)

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay