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Media Ignores Trump Economic Success

One of the most important news items, the virtual rebirth of the American economy under the Trump Administration, is also one of the most under-reported.

The reasons for that are political.  Obviously, it is a success for a White House that most of the media almost desperately attempted to prevent getting elected, and, once that effort failed, did everything possible to cripple. The magnitude of the Trump economic revival could be sufficient to get the President re-elected, an outcome that media seeks to prevent at all costs.

There is also an embarrassment factor, as key left-wing writers and politicians claimed Trump’s policies were incompetent or worse.  Just two examples: The New York Times’ Paul Krugman predicted that Trump’s policies would lead to a “Global recession, with no end in sight.”  Obama himself mocked Trump’s promise to revive manufacturing employment, stating that “those jobs aren’t coming back.”

Obama’s approach of extensive regulation at home and timidity in confronting China abroad provided poor results for American industry and related employment, continuing a downward spiral that could be traced back to the Clinton Administration. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Slate’s Jordan Weissman,  noted:  “Things have not worked out quite as the 42nd president hoped. Normalizing trade with China set our rival on a path to becoming the industrial powerhouse the world knows today, decimating American factory towns in the process and upending old assumptions about how trade effects the economy. Thanks to a growing body of academic research, we’re only just now beginning to understand the extent of the economic fallout…”

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In October, Forbes noted that “Comparing the last 21 months of the Obama administration with the first 21 months of Trump’s, shows that under Trump’s watch, more than 10 times the number of manufacturing jobs were added.”

The extraordinary rise of the U.S. economy is continuing. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019. Current-dollar personal income increased $147.2 billion in the first quarter. Disposable personal income increased $116.0 billion, or 3.0 percent, in the first quarter. Personal saving was $1.11 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.07 trillion in the fourth quarter.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Total nonfarm payroll employment in March rose by 196,000 jobs (see figure), beating market expectations (175,000). The month of March continued the longest streak of growth on record (102 months). Job gains in February were revised up by 13,000, and January jobs were revised up by 1,000 for a cumulative increase of 14,000 jobs.

The White House notes that  “In total, the economy has added over 5.5 million jobs since President Donald J. Trump was elected. The March jobs report reflects a sharp rebound in job growth… Since the President was elected, job gains have surpassed 100,000 jobs in 26 of the 28 months. The average jobs growth in the past 12 months is a robust 211,000 jobs and jobs growth in the past 6 months has averaged 207,000 jobs. Both the 12-month and 6-month averages remain above the 2017 average of 179,000 jobs gained per month…Since the President’s election, the manufacturing industry has added 480,000 jobs and 209,000 jobs in the past 12 months. The report indicates that strong jobs growth is being coupled with wage growth. Nominal average hourly earnings rose by 3.2 percent over the past 12 months, marking the 8th straight month that that year-over-year wage gains were at or above 3 percent. Prior to 2018, nominal average hourly wage gains had not reached 3 percent since April 2009. Taking inflation into account, there is evidence that real wages are also growing. Based on the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data from January, inflation in the past year was 1.4 percent, and based on the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) price data from February, the inflation in the past year was 1.5 percent.”

A particularly unique accomplishment: black and Latino unemployment is at an historic, all-time low.

Great news, all around. Just don’t expect to read much about it in the media.

Chart: White House graphic

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U.S. Economy Gains Spread Wide

The U.S. economic revival is broad, apparently durable, and significant, particularly in that its success covers almost all segments of society.

The aftermath of the Great Recession of 2007 and the stagnation of the Obama era presented key challenges. However, reducing both taxes and the excess regulations allowed the inherent strength of the American economy to reassert itself. The current upswing is particularly notable for several reasons.

First, it has an extensive reach throughout all segments of the population. Blacks, Hispanics, young people, and the middle class, several segments that had been particularly hard pressed, are gaining. Second, blue collar workers, who have been harshly affected by the poor economic decisions of prior administrations, are benefiting. Third, Main Street is gaining, as well as Wall Street.

Despite political claims to the contrary, wages are growing. According to the Bureau of Labor Statisics (BLS) average hourly earnings for all employees in August increased by 10 cents to $27.16. For 2018 so far, average hourly earnings gained by 2.9 percent, or 77 cents. Job growth has been notable. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, in line with the average monthly gain of 196,000 over the prior 12 months.

The details are important.  At 6.3%, the unemployment rate for blacks is the second-lowest in history. Steve Cortes, writing in Real Clear Politics, noted in April: “Among Latinos, the jobless rate has only registered below 5 percent for seven months total, in the history of this country. Six of those months have occurred with Donald Trump in the White House…The jobs data was terrific news for Americans of all ethnicities. For the first time since the year 2000, the overall unemployment rate dipped below 4 percent. Just as significant, almost 1 million Americans who had previously given up on finding a job have rejoined the workforce since Trump was elected.”

The Wall Street Journal  reports that youth unemployment, formerly a similarly bleak statistic, also has seen remarkable improvement. Andrew Duehran notes that “…the unemployment rate among young Americans fell to its lowest level in more than 50 years this summer…Of Americans between 16 and 24 years old actively looking for work this summer, 9.2% were unemployed in July, the Labor Department said Thursday, a drop from the 9.6% youth unemployment rate in July 2017. It was the lowest midsummer joblessness rate for youth since July 1966.”
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The other end of the age spectrum is gaining, as well.  Claudia Dreifus, in The New York Times writes that “In a tight labor market, retirees fill gaps their previous employers can’t…At a moment when the unemployment rate is low, hovering around 3.9 percent, some employers are turning to their pool of retirees to fill holes in their staff. ‘In a tight labor market, firms find recent retirees increasingly attractive,’ said Kathleen Christensen, who funds research on aging and the American labor market at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. ‘Their skills are up-to-date, they possess critical institutional knowledge, and they can mentor younger workers. Hiring back recent retirees appears more common than at any other time since the Great Recession,’ she added.”

Blue collar workers, long overlooked, are prospering. The BLS notes that there are 243,000 open blue collar jobs.  Mining employment increased by 6,000 in August,  Since a recent trough in October 2016, the industry has added 104,000 jobs. Employment in construction continued to trend up in August (+23,000) and has increased by 297,000 over the year. Manufacturing employment was up by 254,000, with more than three-fourths of the gain in the durable goods component.

The Miami Herald reported this month that “Miami is a city with an ever changing skyline. And those who make it happen — the plumbers, electricians, brick masons and carpenters — earn far above the local median: $55,000-75,000 a year with full benefits and a pension. But as the economy barrels toward full employment, local contractors are struggling to find enough skilled workers to fuel the construction boom. ‘We’re seeing it across the board. There are shortages in every trade,’ said Peter Dyga, president of the South Florida-based Florida East Coast Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors, a non-profit trade organization comprised of several construction firms and contractors.”

While paychecks are improving as well becoming more available, additional dollars are being freed up to consume goods.  According to Americans for Tax Reform  “Thanks to the tax cuts passed by the Republican House and Senate and signed by President Donald Trump, at least 120 utilities across the country are lowering rates for customers, according to a report from Americans for Tax Reform. This means lower electric bills, lower gas bills, and lower water bills for Americans. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act cut the corporate rate from 35% to 21%. Utility companies are passing on the tax savings in the form of lower rates for customers.”

Photo: Pixabay

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Ignoring Good News About America’s Economy

In the aftermath of the election of 2016, America’s economy has made a significant comeback following a decade of recession and poor decision making in Washington.  But you wouldn’t notice it from major news media reports.

Part of the problem established by the media’s replacement of objective coverage of the news with editorial opinion is that significant information simply does not get reported, outside of specialty publications and sources that happen to favor the political interests that gain from a particular piece of information.

Currently, many general media sources are ignoring or downplaying the national economic revival.

The Congressional Budget office (CBO)  has reported that real GDP growth is relatively strong this year and next, as recent changes in fiscal policy add to existing momentum. Productivity growth, after the ravages of the recession and the Obama economy,  are returning to nearly average over the past 25 years.  The Trump Administration’s changes in fiscal policy have boosted incentives to work, save, and invest. CBO also estimates  that receipts for the first seven months of fiscal year 2018 totaled $2,012 billion, a figure which is $83 billion more than the amount during the same period last year. That is somewhat surprising. Receipts collected in April, for example, were $30 billion to $40 billion larger than CBO expected.

The good news is, according to CBO, mostly related to economic activity in 2017 and may reflect stronger-than-expected income growth in that year.

Economic and business publications, unlike the general media, have noticed. Forbes notes that  “A strong job market will likely lead to higher consumer spending in the summer months as employment and incomes keep growing. Inflation isn’t expected to be as volatile. HSBC estimates 1.9%, or thereabouts, for the foreseeable future.”

The temperature of the room ought to be in the civilian world. pharmacy online viagra I am sure you know that these products have different price ranges but, even when it comes to the product itself, you want the best product that will help you in acquiring rid of the issue. generic vs viagra One tablet cannot be repeated before you 24 buying tadalafil hours have been completed to the first pill. And it does not make 1 have an instant erection without having cialis buy india having physical sexual stimulation. The Hill reports that “Fourteen states have set new records for low unemployment rates in the last year, nearly a decade after the recession put millions of Americans out of work… Such a tight job market means businesses are competing for workers, rather than workers competing for scarce jobs.”

These aren’t abstract figures that are merely statistics good for Wall Street while not helpful to Main Street, a problem that was prevalent during the Obama Administration.  Middle class employment is finally rising. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics  monthly report disclosed that Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent. More important than the overall statistic was the type of jobs that were increasing. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and mining, solid middle class occupations which had been declining over the past decade as a result of poor policy decisions. BLS found that “In April, employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000. Over the past 12 months, the industry has added 518,000 jobs. Employment in manufacturing increased by 24,000 in April…Manufacturing employment

has risen by 245,000 over the year…In April, employment in mining increased by 8,000…Since a recent low in October 2016,employment in mining has risen by 86,000.

BLS also found that  the median weekly earnings of wage and salary workers in the first quarter of 2018 Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 113.4 million full-time wage and salary workers was 1.8 percent higher than a year earlier.

In a statistic that may prove somewhat disruptive for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, who heavily depend on black and Latino support, the Trump Administration’s economic policies have been particularly helpful to both those communities.  The unemployment rate for black workers dropped to 6.6 percent, beating the previous record low of 6.8 percent set in December. Similarly, Hispanics had an historic low  unemployment rate of 4.8%, matched once before in 2006.

Photo: U.S. Department of Labor

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Black Americans Angry at Obama

Democrats are facing criticism from an unexpected source: black Americans.  The issue prompting the rift is the policy move, led especially by President Obama, to liberalize illegal immigration.

Charles Butler, an astute political observer and radio personality who is a black American, is outraged over Chicago’s Democrat mayor and former Obama advisor Rahm Emmanuel’s encouragement to illegal immigrants. Emmanuel has proposed providing access to 23,000 jobs for illegals. Butler recently wrote:

“No longer do I want to hear the claim humanitarian issues, racism, and other excuses for not enforcing the laws of our land on illegal aliens.  The Civil Rights Movement was about JOBS, freedom was a secondary objective.  In 1963, Dr. King lead the Marched on Washington against President Kennedy because he failed to end job discrimination with the stoke of a pen, as he had promised Dr. King…No taxpayer-funded job should go to an illegal alien when Americans are available to work…Illegal Immigrants are taking jobs from Black Americans, and negatively impacting Black Americans according a study from the U.S. Civil Rights Commission. ”
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Many believe, with a significant degree of accuracy, that the current large upswing in illegal immigration is a direct result of President Obama’s 2012 Executive Order mandating Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Programs. A Newsmax  report noted that the Executive Order “ended the threat of deportation for as many as 670,000 illegals between the age of 15 and 31 who were brought to the U.S. before their 16th birthday.” The program has been extended for two years.

With unemployment an ongoing crisis throughout the nation that is particularly onerous for black Americans, who are almost twice as likely to be unemployed as whites, the introduction of illegals into the work force is a particularly troubling issue.  Newsmax reports that Peter Kirsanow, a member of the Civil Rights Commission, recently noted that “in many low-skilled or unskilled occupations, in large swaths of the country, illegal immigrants have supplanted blacks—throwing lots of blacks out of work.”

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Reporting…Nothing

Over the past few years, it seems that the quality of America’s major news media in television and print has deteriorated sharply. An examination of the coverage provided to recent stories demonstrates an almost unmistakable trend towards the type of “journalism” provided in gossip tabloids.

Consider the wall-to-wall coverage given to events that, while in a few cases important, bear almost no long range significance.

The loss of the Malaysian airliner was certainly a tragedy, and lessons learned should be applied to make future flights more secure. But the nonstop attention applied to it was excessive.  It received a greater percent of ink and airtime for the period in which it occurred than major events which could profoundly affect the future of the entire planet.  Further, the lack of quality analysis of the tragedy was astounding.  Major news organizations discussed alien abductions and black holes.  An army of so-called experts almost hourly expounded theories that contradicted each other.  In the media’s drive to provide constant reportage, almost anyone who had the faintest semblance of a credential was interviewed.

The despicable comments of an aged sports team owner with a known penchant for inappropriateness dominated the news cycle for several days, as has the antics of misbehaving rock stars and Hollywood starlets.  These types of stories have always been covered; the difference currently is that they have traded places with truly major issues in scope and extent of attention.
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Now consider some news stories that have had little to no major media reporting.  Last December, Russian sources admitted they had moved nuclear arms carrying missiles  to their European border.  Length of US media reaction:  A mere day or two of .  All American tanks have been withdrawn from Europe over the past year.  Newspaper or network TV coverage?  Almost  none.  The unemployment rate for black youth in inner cities is a catastrophic 36.1%.  Reportage?  Barely any at all.

While the political comments of entertainment celebrities generally make the evening news and are discussed for days, bizarre statement by elected officials, such as Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee who believes “Christian militants” are attempting to overthrow the government and that the U.S. Constitution is “400 years old” generally leave the news cycle almost instantly.

An adequate media is essential to having a citizenry sufficiently informed to make decisions on whom to vote for.  Due to its poor quality and overt political bias in favor of the current White House, the U.S. news industry has failed in this great responsibility.