Russia gains From Biden Debacle

Putin is smiling wide this week as his “…propaganda machine describes the hasty and disorganized withdrawal of the United States and allied forces from Afghanistan, along with the collapse of their Afghan allies, as a turning point, signaling the decline of US regional and global power and credibility,” says Pavel Felgenhauer of the Jamestown Foundation. Earlier this week the Russian publication RG.RU called out President Biden saying, “Perhaps the 78-year-old US president has already forgotten, or perhaps does not want to remember, what he promised the Afghans and the whole world 20 years ago, when he supported the invasion of Afghanistan. But to his misfortune, the American archives and the vastness of the Internet store all of his statements. It is not surprising that Biden limited himself to a statement and did not accept questions from the press – too much in his words was anti-history.” Another Russian publication depicted side-by-side quotes from Biden in which he earlier supported US troops in Afghanistan and then later on “changed his shoes” [smenil obuv’] and spoke against it. Russian publications across the board mocked the President.

They quoted his 2000-2001 speeches, including one before the US Senate in which he said: “Security is a basic issue for Afghanistan. We must do it at all costs. History will judge us harshly if we let the hopes of the freed Afghans evaporate as we go astray.” Russian writers also used quotes from American publications against Biden, including a 2010 Business Insider article which quoted Biden as saying “To hell with this, there is no need to worry about it. We did this in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.” Propaganda with a twist of truth is effective and this week Moscow was at work at home and abroad.

The Russian propaganda machine was in full swing this week taking advantage of every perceived US weakness and contradictory statement made by President Biden to show the world the Washington is a changeable partner when it comes to foreign policy. The Russian government pushed the idea that Washington will be a fair-weather friend should Putin decide to move in the Ukraine and suggested it would be better for Kiev to align with Moscow over Washington.

Felgenhauer says that the speaker of the State Duma (lower chamber of the Russian parliament), Vyacheslav Volodin, “has written that the entire US foreign policy is collapsing.” He points out that Volodin accuses Washington of facilitating an increase of opiate production in Afghanistan “hundreds of times” while impoverishing the Afghan people. The US and its Western allies have been spending staggering amounts of money to “promote democracy,” but the results have been of little value.” Nikolai Patrushev, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Russian counterpart in US-Russian consultations, also was active this week accusing the US military of “misappropriating billions of taxpayers’ dollars designated to arm and train the Afghan security forces that melted away as the Taliban swept in.”

Patrushev, Putin’s go to, right-hand man claimed the Americans were involved in Afghan opioid production and trade and the US military-industrial complex profiteered on procurement connected with the war. In the Russian publication Izvestia, Alexey Zabrodin wrote that Patrushev called Ukrainian leaders US lackeys and suggested to abandon the US. The Secretary of the Russian Security Council pointed out to Ukrainians that the US set Afghanistan back decades and suggested that is what will happen to them if they side the United States.

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According to Zabrodin, “The confidence of the military and political leadership of the United States and its allies that they fully controlled the situation in Afghanistan led to ignorance and underestimation of the real situation… This is partly the result of the incompetence of the intelligence services of the United States, Britain and other NATO countries, which, apparently, did not sufficiently purposefully approach the collection and analysis of information or did not work well with it.”

Effective propaganda contains a bit of the truth. It encourages the reader to accept that the story is plausible, perhaps probable, and this week certainly unforgettable. With Russia’s assistance, the Ukraine and America’s allies will have a difficult time erasing this week in history from their memories.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Vladimir Putin (Russian government site)

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay