Much attention has been paid to Iran’s nuclear program. The issue that concerns most is that the deal doesn’t prevent the development of atomic weapons in the future, and doesn’t appear likely to even stop ongoing such development in the present. However, other deadly military efforts have been largely overlooked.
The Russian news source RT reports that the Tehran government is expanding its ballistic missile program. Iran carried out a missile test in October, violating a UN Security Council resolution forbidding the construction of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
The Wall Street Journal noted at the close of 2015 that “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordered his defense minister to expedite development of the country’s ballistic missile program in response to new U.S. sanctions set to be imposed on Iranian defense companies. Mr. Rouhani’s comments, made on his official Twitter account…cast fresh doubts on the prospects for the U.S. and Iran to successfully implement the landmark nuclear agreement reached last July.” The new American sanctions were proposed in response to two Iranian ballistic missile tests over the past three months.
Even before the new advances, research from the United States Institute of Peace revealed that “Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. (Israel has more capable ballistic missiles, but fewer in number and type.) Most were acquired from foreign sources, notably North Korea. The Islamic Republic is the only country to develop a 2,000-km missile without first having a nuclear weapons capability. Iran is still dependent on foreign suppliers for key ingredients, components and equipment, but it should eventually be able to develop long-range missiles over time, including an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile or ICBM.
Currently, Iran fields a sophisticated medium range ballistic missile that has a range of 1,200 miles. The weapon, known as the Shahab-3, is based on the North Korean “NoDong 1” missile. But has been improved to provide longer range and better accuracy, according to the Iran Intelligence source. Iran has been the world’s third most active missile testing nation, topped only by Russia and China.
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The American Foreign Policy Council Task Force reported in October that “Willing foreign suppliers exist at both the state and non-state level. At the state level, Iran’s ongoing – and extensive – strategic alliance with the North Korean regime poses considerable future risks, insofar as nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation between the two countries has a long history and is ongoing. Similarly, multiple private entities involved in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to operate within the People’s Republic of China, and have been estimated to provide as much as 90 percent of the necessary “goods and technology” for both. As such, nonproliferation experts have warned that “[t]here is considerable risk that Tehran could covertly procure nuclear materials from Chinese brokers and circumvent a nuclear deal by secretly creating a new parallel nuclear program.” At the same time, Iran will have both greater incentive and greater capability to engage in “offshore” development of a nuclear capability, relying on its existing strategic partnerships abroad to continue nuclear development outside of territorial Iran. Here, too, Iran’s contacts with North Korea represent a source of serious concern, with one or more of the nuclear tests carried out by the DPRK over the past decade believed to have been carried out at least in part to test Iranian capabilities.”
The International Business Times reports that “Russia currently has a deal in place from April to supply Iran with the S-300 missile defense system. It’s yet to be seen how it will be completed given that Iran is now banned from buying missile technology for eight years.”
The Rand organization notes that “Over the past few decades, China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s energy needs and Iran’s abundant resources as well as significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales and defense cooperation, and geostrategic balancing against the United States. This partnership presents a unique challenge to U.S. interests and objectives. In particular, China’s policies have hampered U.S. and international efforts to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability…China has aided Iran’s efforts to modernize its military hardware and doctrine through the transfer of military technology and sales of small arms and tactical ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles. China has assisted in the development of Iran’s nuclear program via the transfer of technology and machinery.”
The Russian-Chinese-Iranian-North Korean axis presents the world with a significant threat, both in terms of total military strength (exceeding that of the U.S.-NATO alliance) as well in the proliferation of nuclear power and ICBM technology.