Putin’s Purge – USA Gov Policy

One question quietly being asked in Washington this week is Who is in charge in Moscow? Russia’s Minister of Defense, Army General Sergey Shoigu, apparently suffering from a sudden but unidentified heart problem, has disappeared. Putin’s top envoy, who previously helped Russian President Medvedev develop the architecture for the country’s economic reforms, resigned this week and has fled the country citing the war against Ukraine. He is refusing to return to Russia until Putin stops the war. More than eight generals and other top Russian military commanders have died with many thousands of soldiers killed in action inside Ukrainian territory. News coming in from the theater reports that over 800 Russian armored vehicles and tanks have been destroyed by Ukraine’s forces defending the country. Russian troops, according to military analysts, simply are left to forage for food as their stomachs are as empty as the gas tanks of the army’s armored vehicles.

Military planners in Washington are surprised by Moscow’s lack of logistical planning with some asking: “Is anyone left in charge in the Kremlin?” Reports coming in from the field suggest the Russian military will begin running out of its food supplies within a few days. Ukrainian defense forces recently destroyed a rail line from Belarus that Russia had intended use to resupply its troops. Videos verified as real are surfacing this week depicting Russian tanks pulling up to Ukrainian gas stations to fill their machines with fuel.

As Russian troops grow hungry and weary, get pushed back farther from the capital, and human loses mount, Putin is said to grow more cantankerous and desperate. Defense One reports that a NATO military officer said Wednesday that between 30,000 and 40,000 Russian troops have been injured with between 7,000 and 15,000 killed. Putin’s spokesman, in a startling interview given earlier this week, calmly confirmed that Russia is willing to commit to a first use doctrine to employ nuclear weapons in the battlefield. President Biden on Wednesday said that Washington also is growing concerned that Putin faces a window to win that is closing, as the war is dragging into the muddy spring planting season.

It makes the Russian leader more dangerous and unpredictable. Biden said the US believes Putin is preparing to use chemical and biological weapons in order to win the war before that window closes. Analysts shared that events match a pattern where Russia blames the West for something before committing the same action. Russian forces have bombed civilian shelters, schools, a maternity hospital, shopping malls, and apartment complexes and deliberately killed many civilian noncombatants. The US on Thursday officially declared that Russian forces have committed war crimes. NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg said this week that “Any use of chemical weapons would totally change the nature of the conflict, and be a blatant violation of international law and will have far-reaching consequences.” Russia has a history of using these types of weapons of mass destruction in Grozny, Chechnya, Aleppo, and Syria. If such weapons are released inside Ukraine they could contaminate NATO Member states and would be viewed as an attack against the Western alliance.
Again, who is charge in Moscow and who is advising Putin now that his long-time confident Shoigu is gone. The general was in charge of the Army and some political ideology. Putin appears increasingly isolated from his other aides. He has purged some of his military commanders who questioned his actions. The oligarchs who help keep him in power are unhappy about their financial losses and freedom due to the sanctions. Russian security expert and writer Andrei Soldatov says: “Putin cannot control every road and every battalion….” Putin tends to trust his former KGB colleagues. He has surrounded himself with many that he has known over the years. But, according to one analyst, “It’s not as if we can say with complete confidence who is calling the shots and who took the decisions.” With Russian nuclear forces on high alert, and intensifying threats coming from the kremlin, the risk of a mistake sparking a regional or world war grow more likely. Hopefully, sane forces in Moscow will be willing to compromise before Putin launches a “Hail Mary” that will set the world on fire.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay