Vladimir Putin often liquidates his adversaries, which to date has keep the rate of recidivism among Russian leaders low.
In this week’s incident it appears that Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin is the latest target. Although not yet confirmed by forensic evidence, it likely that the 10 killed on board an Embraer jet aircraft outside of Moscow included Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, his second in command, who also serves as Wagner’s military planner. Initial photos from the scene are similar to damage seen in January 2020 when a Ukrainian passenger jet was shot down shortly after takeoff from Tehran.
Both this week’s incident and the passenger jet in Iran showed fuselage damage characteristic of shrapnel.
One question that analysts in Washington are asking this week is in what way does this action benefit Putin or stabilize the Russian government. The Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies (RLI) suggests that if the latest assassination is confirmed it “will likely lead to tectonic shifts in Russia’s political system.”
The order to shoot down the plane is unlikely to have come directly from Putin himself or his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, but from other senior leaders in the Kremlin. Given that no drones, other aerial threats, or non-government forces were operating in the area at the time, analysts believe the plane was shot down by Russia’s air defense system. RLI calls it “highly likely” that Prigozhin’s earlier actions signaling the possibility of an armed insurrection against top authorities resulted in his eventual assassination.
Putin’s prior guarantees of safety to Prigozhin make it less likely the Russian president ordered him to be killed as it could potentially hurt him. Several recent polls taken since the shootdown, and running in Russian pro-government media, indicate that over 48% of the population has a negative view to the news of Prigozhin’s purported death.
If the assassination is confirmed later as originating inside the Kremlin walls, the government is likely to lose the support of the more extreme wing of “Russian patriots” currently supporting the government.
RLI says it is also unlikely Shoigu ordered the downing of the jet as his previous grievances with Prigozhin would immediately link him to the assassination. The Institute says that “A hypothesis could be put forward that in this way, Shoigu would eliminate the only actor in today’s Russia who could actually put up resistance to the regular army, and thus try to regain lost positions in Putin’s entourage.
However, the takeover of Wagner Group by army commanders will not add might to the regular forces.”
One Kremlin figure who may be responsible is Nickolai Patrushev, Head of Russia’s Security Council. He gained prominence following the Wagner Group mutiny in late June. Patrushev would benefit from Prigozhin’s death as it is rumored, he plans to run for election against President Putin in 2024. RLI says that “If the theory is correct, then no decision will be made in the Kremlin on general mobilization any time soon.” If events in the Ukraine war continue to go badly for Russia and Putin is forced to implement a total draft call-up, Sergei Shoigu would be one of those to benefit as well as other high-ranked military leaders. There would likely be a direct negative impact on Putin’s popularity.
It appears the Kremlin will continue to eliminate additional Wagner leaders now in Belarus and shut down Wagner camps in Belarus with the assistance of the Belarusian KGB. Another factor coming into play is the status of Wagner Group operations across Africa. RLI analysts suggest that those forces will be placed under the operational control of Russia’s special operations forces and “stripped of direct access to the political leadership of their host countries.” These events taken together are indicative of a tectonic shift facing the Russian elites in the coming months.
The Kremlin is eliminating any source of disapproval of its actions. It is also likely to also take control of the business elite and isolate them from Putin leading to a further downgrading of human rights and bringing into clearer focus how much Russia is beginning to resemble the Russia of the 1930’s.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.