The growth of the world’s population is expected to flatten out by the end of the century to a 0.1% annual increase. Some nation-states are feeling the impact of lower birth rates earlier than others. One of those countries is Russia. According to a PEW Research Center report, the global fertility rate in 2100 with be 1.9%, representing a dramatic drop from the current numbers. Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem for Moscow. The country’s economy is drained by the twin challenges of military and economic losses and now faces harsh structural challenges, according to Sergey Sukhankin of the Jamestown Foundation. One of the greatest immediate tasks for Vladimir Putin, is to find a way to develop a qualified workforce to help minimize the impact of Western sanctions.
Russia’s war in Ukraine depleted the country of able-bodied, working aged men. Battlefield losses are coupled with increased emigration by those seeking to avoid military service or serving on the front lines. Although Rosstat, Russia’s official statistical agency, has been suppressing the numbers lost in combat, those numbers are needed for military planning and are slowing being released. They are devastating to the future growth of the Russian economy. What is known today is that combat deaths, reported under the label “external sources,” now account for 40 percent of all “external causes” of 18-29 years old Russian men and represent a significant, long-term, structural challenge to the regime.
To help alleviate the labor problems resulting from the war and Western sanctions, Putin turned to integrating prison labor in some sectors of the domestic economy. “Moscow has tried to veil these efforts by silencing experts and activists who have been vocal about the re-emergence of prison labor in the economy,” according to Sukhankin. Russia faced labor shortages in the past. In 2013, Oleksandr Podrabinek, of Imrussia.org, reported that human rights advocates were concerned about how the country was addressing serious shortages of manpower. “Strictly speaking, this problem has never disappeared, but public attention is drawn to it only from time to time. And this is understandable,” Podrabinek says, as “it is difficult to live with the constant understanding that voluntarily or involuntarily we use the fruits of salve labor.” Those in Russia’s slave labor camps typically suffer through 15-17 hour workdays, seven days a week in deplorable conditions, to supply the country with a wide variety of products.
Vedomosti.ru reports that that the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) argued in favor of dramatically increasing the “use of prison labor in areas where there is a visible lack of foreign migrants.” The Russian Ministry of Justice added to it by suggesting that an increased reliance on prison labor could support strategic infrastructure projects in the Artic and Siberia. Sukhankin points out that Russian officials proposed using convicts for work along the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM) 2,687-mile-long railway, which is an alternative to the Trans-Siberian line. Several major Russian corporations, including Rosatom, Rostec, Rosano, and Roscosmos, are believed to be behind the initiative and will benefit from cheap and easily accessible labor. In August 2022, Sukhankin says that the All-Russia Public Organization’s Business Russia began testing Russian businesses readiness to incorporate an increased number of prison laborers in the operation. He says that according to the project’s findings, as many as between 100,000-180,000 convicts may be forced into harsh prison labor conditions in construction, agriculture, forestry, mining and clothing manufacturing.
Arkady Gostev, head of FSIN, and Boris Titov, Russia’s presidential commissioner for entrepreneurs’ rights have actively lobbied Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec with Titov claiming the convicts are “a discipline workforce” that could help Russia’s labor shortage. In 2022, approximately 9,300 prisoners were employed by Russian firms. By August 2023 that number has risen to 26,000 convicts. There is concern from abroad that the Kremlin is not accurately portraying how labor is used. Dw.com/ru in March reported that they may be involved in the production of weapons and military equipment. Earlier this year, British intelligence supported the DW report and indicated that it was an ongoing practice since August 2022. The reinstated Gulag style system appears reminiscent of the days of the Soviet economy, where it acted as the “manager” of the prison workforce on behalf of the state.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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