Pakistan’s Tragedy – USA Gov Policy

Popular theory suggests that humans can only intuitively grasp small, single digit numbers. Any more than that and our understanding morphs from recognizing a numeric value to only seeing patterns or abstractions that require the mediation of language. This is true, for example, when we look at trees. Once the number increases, we no longer recognize individual branches, or even full trees. Instead, our brains only register a pattern we label as a “forest.” In the same way it is challenging for humans to fully grasp the extent of a refugee crisis such the one resulting from the war in Ukraine, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, or the vast impact of a natural disaster like the recent catastrophic and deadly flooding across Pakistan.

In an area only 9.6 percent the size of the United States, Pakistan contains a population that is over two-thirds the size of our population. The latest floods in that country displaced nearly 8 million people or almost the same number of individuals as reside in all of New York City. Pakistan’s population totals over 225 million today, or 67.8% of that of the US. Even these few numbers lose much of their meaning due to their size, except to the humans intimately involved in each crisis.

This week world leaders came together in New York City to attend the United Nations General Assembly. They discussed Ukraine, the flood waters in Pakistan, and the resulting outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and dengue fever. It is a serious crisis for the many thousands of pregnant Pakistani women and the more than 3 million children needing immediate care. One set of numbers that the politicians should grasp is that floodwaters covering one-third of Pakistan may take a full six months to recede.

Officials in Islamabad are responding to worst disaster in a hundred years and need international humanitarian assistance unlinked to a political agenda. The National Flood Response and Coordination Center in Pakistan is providing updates to the world and aid to the people where possible. One good fact is that most vital rescue missions are complete with people moved to higher ground. The crisis is not over. Agricultural fields remain inundated, and the people lack enough food, shelter, and health care. The numbers do not begin to explain the extend of the challenge faced by a international donor weary world. The United Nations has only reached a third of its goal of raising $39 million in a global economy already suffering from supply chain shocks over Covid, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and now the war in Ukraine.

The State Department announced today that the Foreign Ministers of Australia, India and Japan and the Secretary of State met in New York on Friday and signed into operation the Guidelines for the ‘Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific’. At first glance it appears a step forward in addressing the concerns of states in the region that often suffer from tsunami and other natural disasters. A full reading of the document, however, emphasizes a very different agenda of the Biden Administration.

While Ukraine, Afghanistan, and now Pakistan’s citizens are suffering in massive numbers, the Biden Administration announcement highlights that “Under the partnership, Quad partners will promote inclusion by advancing gender equality and women’s and girl’s empowerment, ensuring persons with disabilities are agents and beneficiaries of humanitarian action, and by ensuring indigenous people, minority groups and persons in vulnerable situations are not left behind. The guidelines call for zero tolerance for inaction on tackling Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Harassment (SEAH).” The Biden Administration appears to be redefining what constitutes a humanitarian crisis. Whether one state is allied with another, during a major crisis world leaders need to come together to address the immediate needs of the population struggling to survive and not push a radical political agenda. It appears the US is changing how it prioritizes humanitarian crises.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay