On Russia’s Border – USA Gov Policy

While the eyes of most Western political leaders are cast toward Afghanistan, President Vladimir Putin continues to actively pursue an aggressive over the border strategy. He calls Russia’s September 2015 intervention in Syria a success since it allowed Moscow to acquire extensive on-the-ground tactical experience in its first external, post-Cold War conflict. Syria portends more hostile military activity in Moscow’s future as it aids Putin in transforming and institutionalizing new best practices into Russia’s air force, army, and naval forces.

Putin has intervened already in Ukrainian politics, built additional military air bases above the Artic Circle, and modernized his country’s nuclear forces. In a recent Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) report on Russia, Robert Hamilton writes that “Through Syria, Russia has reemerged on the geopolitical stage… [and] the West will be dealing with a Russia that has changed fundamentally through its experience in the war.” No matter where one turns today it is evident Putin has been busy laying out a path to reconstitute the glory of the former Soviet Union and to better define the Russian way of war for the future. The West should be concerned about Russia on the horizon, not just China. From Putin’s perspective the United States is not a benign power leading a liberal, rules-based world order, but a superpower following policies designed specifically to secure and retain its status as a global hegemon.

Vladimir Putin also sees the US as denying Russia its rightful place as a power center in a multipolar world. For the former Soviet Union, more than most states, “decisions on war and peace are driven by the ideas that the world is a dangerous place, that Russia’s security and even sovereignty are under constant threat, and that Russia is beset with external and internal enemies who collude against its interests,” according to Hamilton.

Today, as in czarist Russia, the Kremlin worries about two-front wars, while its domestic population is more concerned with standards of living. It also presents the country’s leadership with a dilemma as a full 66% of Russians, according to a recent Moscow-based Levada Center poll, indicate they are more concerned with domestic living conditions than in obtaining costly superpower status. Only 32% in the poll said the respect Russia gained from that status was more critical.

It makes Putin more dangerous to the West in 2022. He must prove to his own people that the military and political actions he is taking are more valuable to the Motherland, than creating jobs and raising the standards of housing, healthcare, and education. The political situation in Russia is complicated for Putin. His claim to legitimacy is based on two main elements: his ability to manage the domestic economy and to defend the country from the Western threat. The per capita domestic product last year was lower than it was in 2008. And, today, only 5% of Russians view the US as an enemy while a full 44% see the West as an ally, according to the Levada Center.

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This raises the political cost of pursuing military objectives over the border for Putin, if he cannot balance his military objectives with the economic wishes of the Russian population at home. To justify his actions abroad, Putin may need to seek out new military objectives in the Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere to legitimize his continued worth to Russians and to convince them that the national security he is providing is worth more than their economic sacrifices. Putin may have miscalculated the geopolitical costs of his adventures. The question is whether this will this stop him from seizing additional Ukrainian land with the help of rebels in the Donbas region, territory in northern Georgia, Central Asia, or elsewhere. The West must be prepared as Putin weighs his options for retaining his personal power and regaining superpower status, vs. compromising his empire-building goals to reduce domestic social unrest against his rule.

The Russian leader’s recent moves to maintain Moscow’s influence in Central Asia since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, is an indication that he is not giving any leeway to the West, nor will he set aside his revitalized military to allow the United States to freely engage with other countries in the region. The stakes for Putin are high and his political legacy is at stake. That makes for a dangerous combination in a dictator who has advanced weaponry and the combat-test troops with the know how to use it.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay