New Forms of Warfare in China Are Old Ones Repurposed for the 100th Anniversary of Communism

Over 2,000 years ago Sun Tzu, a famous Chinese general and military strategist best known in the West for his sayings in The Art of War, said “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war.…” It may be what we are witnessing in China today. Next year marks the prestigious 100^th anniversary of communism in China and symbolically is of great import to the CCP leadership.

Nuclear war is considered “a special case” of warfare and viewed generally as a 21^st century stalemate among the great powers possessing the weapons. Using them is on a scale of destruction too horrible to imagine for any rational nation-state. But that doesn’t mean war has gone away. What we see today in China is a revamping of conventional military spending priorities and strategies. Of particular concern is that President Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership have used the post-Cold War period to set new, conventional military goals for 2027 in the areas of mechanization and information warfare. The threat posed by China is real and it is global. What the CCP’s recent Party Plenum meeting called a need to “elevate national security” to a new level, presents an increased danger to nations opposing Chinese attempts to remake the world in its image.

Under the new five-year plan (FYP) economic, technological, and supply chain security clearly will be top domestic national security priorities for the communist giant. To ensure internal dissent is tamped down and doesn’t impact its expansive goals the CCP is requiring that all ministries only put forward plans and budgets that are fully agreed upon in advance of formally submitting them as part of the FYP. Externally, improving security means eliminating the weaknesses in conventional military areas. As Dean Chung of the Heritage foundation wrote recently: “While some units of the PLA employ data links, network-centric sensor-to-shooter system-of-systems, and field a variety of UAVs, electronic warfare platforms, and advanced combat capabilities, other units are still in the midst of simply shifting from towed artillery to self-propelled guns, improving their main battle tanks and becoming fully motorized.” This is significant because China is closing the remaining holes in its offensive strategy and the technologies needed to ensure its success. China floats the world’s largest navy. Its air force is closing the technology gap with the West.

During the initial stages of the recent military reorganization and modernization plan the PLA developed “integrated joint operations” (yitihua lianhe zuozhan; 一体化联合作战) and “civil-military fusion” (junmin ronghe; 军民融合) programs. China also established new “war zones” and replaced its theater commands. Historically, Chinese leaders have moved military commanders around to ensure that loyalty remains to the top CCP leaders in Beijing and that no regional military leaders compete for power with the central CCP. Unlike the Soviet Union, each Chinese advance in technology and strategy is completed at a measured pace to ensure the funding is available to follow through on the political plan. China is not imploding as some western analysts would like to believe. Washington needs to be concerned about the deliberateness and breadth of China’s long-term effort, from its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Beijing’s aggressive moves against democracy in Hong Kong, toward its claims on Taiwan, in its offensive posture in the South China Sea and elsewhere across the world.

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Nearly 20 years of double- digit military budget increases have enabled China to catch up with the West. What technology it has not developed internally it has stolen from abroad. It yields an air force of over 1,700 combat aircraft today. Only 35 years ago China could only put 50% of its air force in the sky at one time due to a lack of pilots and spare parts! It has come a lo ng way. Although China’s total number of ships has decreased slightly, it has improved greatly the advanced technologies of the existing ships, sales two aircraft carriers, and, overall, is a formidable fleet. Multiple classes of surface combatant ships are now in series production and include guided missile destroyers fielding long-range surface-to-air and anti-cruise missile systems and kilo-class submarines. This is not the military of Mao fighting with broomsticks.

China decided against spending large amounts on a nuclear deterrent as did the Soviet Union and the United States. Instead it is building a large and strong conventional force able to extend its reach across the world. Perhaps most concerning, is that strategists in Beijing appear to have the political willpower to fund its conventional military force and use it.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay