NATO at 70 – USA Gov Policy

The NATO alliance has reached a major milestone—its 70^th anniversary. The Washington Treaty, which established the alliance, was signed April 4, 1949. It has succeeded in its primary mission of protecting Europe from first the Soviet Union and the aggressiveness of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization not only is the longest-lived alliance in history, but also is the most successful, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (who will remain in the position until 2022) told a joint session of Congress on April 3.

Describing the current threat, Stoltenberg noted that Russia and China are major competitors. “For the first time, we have combat-ready troops deployed in the east of our alliance,” he said. “We have increased the readiness of our forces, tripled the size of the NATO Response Force, modernized our command structure, bolstered our cyber defenses, and we have stepped up support for our close partners, Georgia and Ukraine, sovereign nations with the sovereign right to choose their own path.”

Speaking at a press conference in March, Stoltenberg said “Russia violates the INF Treaty by deploying new nuclear capable missiles in Europe. And we will also address the aggressive actions of Russia in the Black Sea region.”

He stressed that the fight against terrorism is a long-term effort. He also emphasized the growing threat of cyber attacks.

He summarized NATO’s 2018 accomplishments:

We strengthened our deterrence and defence, including with a new Readiness Initiative.
We agreed a major update of the NATO Command Structure, with two new commands – one for the Atlantic and another to support military mobility in Europe.
We carried out Trident Juncture 2018, NATO’s largest exercise in a generation.
We boosted our cyber defences, including with a Cyberspace Operations Centre.
We stood united in calling out Russia for its use of a nerve agent on British soil and its breach of the INF Treaty.
We stepped up in the fight against terrorism, with a new training mission in Iraq, and more support for Afghanistan.
We deepened our partnerships, from Ukraine and Georgia to Jordan and Tunisia.
We worked more closely than ever before with the European Union, including on maritime security and military mobility.
We invited North Macedonia to become a member of the Alliance, showing that NATO’s door remains open.
We completed the move to this new headquarters, a modern home for a modern Alliance.

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The most controversial issue facing the Alliance remains the level of funding. Some nations with strong economies, Germany being the most notable, have failed to contribute their fair share. In essence, the American taxpayer has been paying for the defense of some nations who could well afford to contribute equally. President Trump has frequently addressed the issue.

Stoltenberg has noted that “… all NATO Allies made a pledge to invest more in defence, to improve burden-sharing in our Alliance. And and I expect all Allies, including Germany of course, to make good on the pledge we made together. We didn’t make this pledge to please the United States, we made it because we live in a more unpredictable and more uncertain world. Allies reduced defence spending after the end of the Cold War when tensions went down, but now tensions are going up again and we have to invest more in defence.

“Germany as all other Allies are now making progress. The good news is that after years of cutting defence spending, Germany and all other Allies are adding billions to their defence budgets. So I welcome the progress we have seen, increased investments from Germany, but of course I expect more from all Allies.

“Then, let me add that burden sharing is not only about spending. Burden sharing is also about contributions to different NATO missions and operations. Germany is a lead nation in Afghanistan, has been there for many years. Germany leads one of our battlegroups in the eastern part of the Alliance, in Lithuania. And Germany is also now responsible for our high-readiness force in NATO, and Germany is also leading the NATO activity in the Aegean Sea.”

The article concludes tomorrow, with a summary of NATO’s 2018 Annual Report

Photo: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to a joint session of the U.S. Congress in advance of the alliance’s 70th anniversary, April 3, 2019. NATO photo

Quick Analysis

What Would War with Taiwan be Like

There is a coming conflict with Taiwan. What remains uncertain is the nature of that conflict. A newly released report this week by the Global Taiwan Institute’s (GTI) John Dotson argues that political warfare is a key component of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) attempt to undermine and achieve annexation of Taiwan. The CCP’s goal, he says, is to force the subjugation of the island’s citizens and democratic society and place it under “full CCP political Control.” Chinese directed propaganda and disinformation, elite cooption, political subversion, and coercive military and economic actions all are connected by a prominent link – they are actions intended for psychological effect. They are also methods of political warfare in an ongoing, persistent, and multi-faceted campaign against Taiwan. Information warfare used by Beijing against Taipei manipulates the news to change the attitudes of the population. Is it working? Dotson says that China is successfully exercising influence of “content and editorial coverage in traditional media outlets such as newspapers and television news channels, largely by leveraging influence through local proxy figures—in particular, wealthy businesspersons who have extensive financial equities in China.” He suggests that Beijing employs a “pink model” to push pro-CCP content into social media news feeds, not unlike what China does inside the United States. Using algorithmic targeting, Beijing is able to attack selected demographic targets who are more vulnerable to disinformation. Its goal is to further sow confusion and reduce cognitive resistance to pro-CCP’s narratives. Encouraging a population to believe false information by reducing a group’s opposition to it is a common practice among intelligence agencies and politicians alike. First, a population is provided with several scenarios that are easily accepted as true. In a simple example, one might read that at noon the sun is high in the sky, the clock says 12:00 pm, and many people are eating lunch. These points are easily accepted as true. The human brain at this point becomes more susceptible to accepting new information that may be false as it is programmed to let its guard done. The CCP follows by planting real information among false facts to make it easier to accept and digest. It doesn’t stop at disinformation, Beijing is also leveraging its toolkit in a related field, “legal warfare (法律戰), to promote its interpretation of international law and diplomatic practice. Yet another major category of concern in the CCP’s political warfare against Taiwan is known as “gray zone operations.” These are more closely related to military actions and include activities such as the aerial and maritime encroachment of Taiwan’s territory. The goal is to erode the concept of sovereignty and security. The United States is experiencing “gray zone” operations on our own southern border. In Taiwan, these include China’s overflight of Taiwan’s airspace by military aircraft. These events are increasing in both number and intensity as they grow close to the island itself. Simultaneously, China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy), through its coast guard “law enforcement” operations are challenging Taipei’s outer islands. Dotson points out that the “paramount objective in such operations is the intended psychological effect on Taiwan’s population.” Another related area according to the GTI report is increasing economic coercion. China is attempting to deny Taiwan market access, ban its imports, and limit politically-oriented trade and investment opportunities. The intent is to “punish groups within Taiwan for developments to which Beijing objects, to isolate Taiwan internationally, and to pressure other countries and international companies to conform to Beijing’s preferred policies on Taiwan,” says Dotson. To date, Taiwan has suffered from attempts to ban Taiwan’s export of agricultural products. Beijing has also punished countries who willingly import from Taiwan and have close relations with Taipei. Perhaps one of the most misunderstood areas of China’s political warfare campaign against Taiwan revolves around its “united front work.” This embraces a range of measures that Dotson says include both financial and psychological cooption and include the use of front organizations and political subversion. In Taiwan, China is coopting business and political elites, funding and manipulating local organizations (temple societies) and offering support to fringe political parties that can be used to destabilize Taiwan and spread the CCP’s propaganda. Western militaries analyze the likelihood of kinetic warfare but spend less time on the impacts of political warfare. The free world cannot overlook what is happening in Taiwan and needs to recognize that Chinese political warfare extends across the globe. Beijing may not need to physically capture the island by force if it wins using a clandestine political warfare model of conflict. Then the question becomes, “Who is next?” Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay