NASA Returns to the Moon, Part 3

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its presentation of NASA’s plans to return to the Moon.

A VIBRANT EARTH-MOON FUTURE

Whenever the first human mission to Mars occurs, it will not mean that we are done with the Moon. The windows for launching the two-year mission to Mars open up every few years, and we will continue to conduct human missions to the lunar surface to test systems, conduct scientific investigations, and continue to develop our sustainable lunar presence as we prepare for the optimal launch window.

We will continue to explore the Moon indefinitely — leveraging robotic deliveries provided by CLPS providers, longer duration human missions, and commercial and international

partnerships that will add to the Artemis Base Camp elements NASA puts in place. The LTV, habitable mobility platform and foundation surface habitat will stay on the Moon enabling crews to live on the lunar surface for months at a time. The rovers and crew-tended capabilities on the Moon will be designed to operate autonomously and to work with independent robotic assistants.

In addition to testing our systems for the first mission to Mars, a core purpose of Artemis Base Camp will be to demonstrate new technologies that, over time, will expand our capabilities and reduce the costs of lunar operations. Astronauts at Artemis Base Camp will be testing a wide set of new technologies in six priority areas encompassed by the recently announced Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (i.e. ISRU; surface power; extreme access; excavation and construction; lunar dust mitigation; and extreme environments). Some of these technologies will help from the beginning, such as lunar dust mitigation and enabling operations in extreme environments like the cold of the lunar night. Other technologies are in early development for significant long-term benefits. For example, ISRU will enable the production of fuel, water, and/or oxygen from local materials, enabling sustainable surface operations with decreasing supply needs from Earth. For surface power, our goal is to develop advanced solar collection and a small, lightweight fission power system to support even longer-duration missions and operations on the Moon, and eventually for Mars and beyond. Autonomous manufacturing, excavation, and construction technologies will make infrastructure emplacement more affordable.

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Astronauts will also conduct tests of advanced robotics, including future biomimetic systems that enable more autonomous operations at the Moon and can serve as robotic assistants to the crew. In time, Artemis Base Camp might also include a hopper that could deliver science and technology payloads all over the Moon and which could be operated by crew at Artemis Base Camp and refueled using locally sourced propellant. A lunar far-side radio telescope could also be remotely emplaced and operated from Artemis Base Camp – a sort of backyard radio- telescope at our first encampment on the Moon.

Developing a sustained and vibrant lunar presence will not only require the best of NASA and its international partner space agencies, but also the best of the entire U.S. government and commercial sector. Establishing the infrastructure that will enable additional international and commercial partnerships will result in opportunities for the first international and commercial astronauts on the lunar surface, opening up Earth’s ’s off-shore continent for ongoing human discovery and development. NASA’s unique leadership and capabilities will be combined with innovation and contributions from the same sectors that fuel our nation and economy here on Earth.

_{THE INITIAL HUMAN MARS MISSION}

The success of the first human mission to Mars requires a voyage of stunning technological and operational complexity. The distance from Earth to the Moon is a relatively manageable 250,000 miles. In contrast, Mars is, on average, 140 million miles from Earth. The challenges of a mission to Mars are compounded not only by these distances but by the more dangerous levels and types of radiation that is found in deep space. Mars’ atmosphere – while intriguing from a scientific perspective – also presents distinct challenges for getting humans to and from its surface.

The initial lunar missions will greatly inform our concept of operations for Mars. Every day in deep space increases the probability of catastrophic events occurring. The concept of operations NASA is working toward for the first human mission to Mars is therefore one that reduces trip time significantly and minimizes time spent on the surface to around 30-45 days. Factors NASA will continue to consider include: risks to crew health during transit, both from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) radiation and from potential catastrophic mission events; the complexity of mission operations on the Martian surface; and the complexity and cost of mission systems, such as in-space propulsion, the ability to land heavy payloads, and required surface systems. NASA has targeted conducting a human mission to Mars that can be realized as soon as possible, while still ensuring that our Mars surface capabilities will allow for extensive exploration on our first mission, including a search for Martian life. The Moon will allow us to test and demonstrate significant parts of this mission before sending humans on this epic journey. NASA will have more to share on the strategy for how the Moon prepares us for the first human mission to Mars in the coming months.

Illustration: NASA

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)