Moscow’s Military Remains a Threat

Although China is the principal threat to US national security, Russian political and military antagonism cannot be ignored. On Thursday, the Heritage Foundation released it 2022 Index of US Military Strength. Russia remains high on the list of formidable threats to the United States and Western Europe. According to Alexis Mrachek, a research associate on Russia and Eurasia at the Heritage Foundation, “From the Arctic to the Baltics, Ukraine, and the South Caucasus, and increasingly in the Mediterranean, Russia continues to foment instability in Europe. Despite economic problems, Russia continues to prioritize the rebuilding of its military and funding for its military operations abroad.” Moscow is not retreating. It continues to make efforts to destabilize the NATO alliance and undermine US institutions which it views as threatening to Russia’s national security.

According to the Index, last year Russia spent $61.7 billion on its military and remains in the top five nations in terms of defense spending. What is, perhaps, most significant is how Russia is spending its military budget, which totals 4% of the country’s GDP. Over the last few years President Putin has prioritized modernization of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, as well as completing general upgrades to all branches of its military. Earlier this year Maxim Starchak, of the Jamestown Foundation, wrote that in 2020 Russia completed deployment of 20 launchers armed with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as well as 2 UR-100N UTTH launchers with the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle. Although upgrades have been slowed by Covid restrictions and some management and technical issues, Starchak says they have “had relatively little impact on the overall growth of advanced weapons in the nuclear triad.”

Data in the Index, from an International Institute for Strategic Studies report, states that among the key weapons in Russia’s inventory are 336 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 2,840 main battle tanks, 5,220 armored infantry fighting vehicles, more than 6,100 armored personnel carriers, and more than 4,684 pieces of artillery. Russia’s navy currently has one aircraft carrier and 49 submarines, including 11 equipped with ballistic missiles. Russia also has plans to build 10 more Borei-A–class ballistic submarines. It is a considerable force. Currently, the US has 68 submarines (14 ballistic missile, 50 attack, and 4 cruise-missile). Two submarines must be built each year to maintain the size of the US fleet. The Congressional Budget Office, which evaluates the cost of shipbuilding as part of the DOD budget wrote that “The Navy’s annual shipbuilding plan would cost more than double what has been appropriated over the past 30 years and 24 percent more than annual appropriations during the Cold War. In the 2040s, funding for submarines alone would exceed average overall funding from 1992 to 2021.” While the US must convince Congress to fund it programs, in Russia Putin has an easier time prioritizing military modernization over domestic social welfare programs to meet his goal of restoring the glory of the Russian empire.

Mrachek points out that “Russia possesses the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons (including short-range nuclear weapons) among the nuclear powers. It is one of the few nations with the capability to destroy many targets in the US homeland and in US-allied nations as well as the capability to threaten and prevent free access to the commons by other nations.” At this time Russia remains the only state capable of threatening the US homeland with both conventional and nuclear weapons, although China successfully tested an advanced hypersonic glide ballistic missile this year. Russia’s aggressive bellicose behavior, coupled with rising nationalism and its enhanced full range of military capabilities, makes it a formidable adversary should Russia decide to engage with the US. Russia, partnering with China, present a real and present danger to the national security of the United States.

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The Russian air force has 1,160 combat-capable aircraft, compared to 3,318 operated by the United States and 280,000 soldiers backed up by two million in its total reserve force. From 2010 to 2019, Russia spent approximately 40% of its total military spending on arms procurement. According to Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, writing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists this spring, Putin is “…81 percent of the way through a modernization program to replace all Soviet-era missiles with newer types by the early 2020s on a less-than one-for-one basis.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Russian Sukhoi 35

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay