Mind The Gap – USA Gov Policy

GIUK is not Twitter short-hand. NATO knows it. The US Navy recognizes it is real, even if it isn’t part of everyone’s vocabulary. The GIUK Gap is a critical maritime strategic transit route, or chokepoint, that NATO uses to keep watch over Russian submarines, surface ships and planes. It consists of a 200-mile length of ocean between Iceland and Greenland alongside a 500-mile gap between Iceland and Scotland. Both Russia and China are making overtures to Greenland which could destabilize NATO’s ability to operate in this territory. Although Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Scotland all retain high degrees of political autonomy they could decide that strict neutrality is a less costly defense option and would provide each more complete self-determination.

Russia knows that economically, the region is heavily dependent on industries that could be dramatically impacted in a market crash. According to Scott Savitz, writing in Defense One, “When the inevitable cyclical crash happens, and subsidies from Copenhagen or London are no longer forthcoming, they could be desperate for help, and willing to welcome it from outside powers offering money on seemingly favorable terms.” Russia, and the rest of the world have witnessed China using its BRI Initiative to control markets and alliances over the last decade throughout the developing world. Russia is considering something similar. With Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Scotland each having a domestic economy of about $3 billion, Putin knows it could be an easy financial deal for Russia.

China already is making overtures to Greenland to mine its rare earths and offering to send several thousand of its miners to the island. Russia appears to be setting up businesses and preparing to make other political deals in the region. Putin could gain significantly if he convinces Greenland to abrogate the United States’ basing rights at Thule. Russia would then acquire new means to conduct intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance in GIUK Gap and North Atlantic, according to Savitz.

How likely is Greenland to change alliances? Although it is nearly one-third the size of the continental US, it only has a population of 56,081. With a large land mass, small population, and Russian propaganda expounding the advantages of improving relations with Moscow, it is feasible that if Greenland becomes fully independent, it could decide against joining NATO and side with Russia. It might seek protection of its interests elsewhere, according to Savitz, and that would hurt NATO’s ability to counter Russian moves in the region and its ability to secure the GIUK Gap.

This region figures prominently in the Russian Navy’s planning and calculations. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) points out that after a long period of neglect during the Cold War this region is again a flash point for potential great power conflict and needs a post-Cold War reevaluation. IISS calls these sea lanes “the gateway between northern European waters and the broad reaches of the Atlantic and beyond.” As the new Northern Passageway becomes an accessible shipping route for longer periods during the year, and advanced technologies make mining the natural resources of the Arctic region economical, Russian analysts see a strategic opportunity to make gestures of support to the region.

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This poses a maritime domain challenge for NATO given Russia has heavily invested in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in recent years. Benjamin Roade, of IISS, says “This is especially the case with Russia’s latest long-range air-, surface- and submarine-launched anti-ship missiles.” It was just three years ago when the US sent its first US carrier deployment into the Arctic Circle in more than two decades. With the renewed US focus on the High North along with increased Russian submarine activity and precision stand-off weapons capabilities, NATO’s posture needs to continue changing to reflect the new environment.

While Russia’s military equipment investment in the region remains lower than at the height of the Cold War, the US cannot overlook the long-term implications should it lose the GIUK Gap. Modern Russian subs are more lethal than earlier Cold War versions. Today the US-NATO “acoustic edge” in detecting the increasingly stealth Russian subs almost is gone. Although technology has increased the range of precision guided missiles since the onset of the Cold War, the GIUK Gap will remain a forward line of defense as Russia continues to asset that it plans to reach out into the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Black Sea, not just the High North and Baltic. It will continue to be a critical gateway and a potential testing ground for new military technologies. The US needs to Mind the Gap.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Russian Defence Ministry

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay